2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm just pre-emptively strapping on my helmet just in case we get a surprise (like "Trump +5" in PA or something).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Election Twitter is crowdfunding (yes, you read that right), a poll of AK-SEN, which will also include presidential numbers and Biden/Trump favorables.

https://twitter.com/theJackVaughan/status/1280341806329278464

Gaining money quick, so it seems likely that we will get the long-awaited Alaksa poll!

60% of the way there in 2 hours.

Turns out 80% of the donors are Atlas / Talk Election Members.   

Still pretty cool, but naturally wouldn't be smoking any of that Alaskan Northern Lights strain without some serious backup and verification of legit polling methods in *insert Atlas Cliche* "One of the most difficult states to poll"....

"Our sample included six people, two Grizzly Bears, and a Snowy Owl."

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/theJackVaughan/status/1280587528802885633

Woot!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just because I enjoy being a maverick:

Trump +10, Sullivan +10

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Incoming:

https://twitter.com/margbrennan/status/1282282395111174144

So...what does that mean, exactly?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1283079642119839746?s=20

Based on the fact that they pose the question of whether "there is a hidden Trump vote" in PA, I am going to assume he is doing better than most polls suggest as of now. Biden +3 is my prediction.

I could also see them saying: Is there a secret Trump vote in the Keystone State? No.

Still strapping on my helmet in case we get a "TRUMP +3" or something. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1291473686525026311

Did we ever get this poll?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A couple of polling tidbits for today (W, 8/12):

- Nate Silver's long-awaited Presidential model is apparently being released sometime today. With the amount of tinkering that Silver has been advertising, don't be surprised if it's a bit tighter than the other cumulative models.

- Crowdfunded Kansas poll is dropping at 2pm EST.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I expect a flurry of quality national polls next weekend.  The first weekend of the month is when many of the major pollsters release monthly polls, and it also allows them to be in the field this week, the first full week following the conventions.

I am both, simultaneously, greatly anticipating and dreading them.

I don't dread the polls.  I dread the reactions to them. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I’m gonna say the Monmouth NC poll shows
Biden 47
Trump 46

Going one further, I wouldn't be shocked if it showed a Trump +X result. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

PN +9 Biden

I don't think Panama is ready to go to Biden yet, but it all depend on how Costa Rica trends. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1303677883618127873

He's got to be talking about this week's Economist/YouGov poll, which should be out later today.

Was that the one that was just released, GM?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I love when all the political pundits talk about the election and always bleat, “It’s all about turnout and which side shows up more.”

No sh_it

"Usually the team that scores the most points wins the game."

-- John Madden

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1310585473857990657?s=19

Their last poll was +7 so assuming like +8/+9

I'll go the opposite and say +5/6. 

No reason.  I just like being a troublemaker. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

New TIPP, PA Biden +5 lol

If you seriously think you know what’s going to happen next month, you’re a political hack.

Isn't +5 pretty much in line with the PA polling average right now, though?

It's +4.7 over at RCP, +4.9 at 538.  

Not exactly a wild and crazy Trumpy number from TIPP. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

New TIPP, PA Biden +5 lol

If you seriously think you know what’s going to happen next month, you’re a political hack.

Isn't +5 pretty much in line with the PA polling average right now, though?

It's +4.7 over at RCP, +4.9 at 538.  

Not exactly a wild and crazy Trumpy number from TIPP.  

No. But not the +7, +8, +9 I see being wish casted in this thread!

A +9 *did* just get released by NYT/Siena.  But I would be surprised if Biden's margin of victory was that large. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Prediction for CBS poll:

OH - Trump +1
PA - Biden +5/6

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Republican ID is smaller than their last poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313158601377226752?s=20

So Biden +2-3 sounds about right. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Republican ID is smaller than their last poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313158601377226752?s=20

So Biden +2-3 sounds about right. 

Given Biden does better with Republicans than Trump does with Democrats and Biden typically dominates with Independents, I'd probably go a little higher. Biden +5-6?

We have your answer, Gass: Biden +8 😛

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1313470461909630978?s=21

OH - Trump +1-2
NV - Mmmm....Biden +4-5, but a hard +4-5. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Pretty confident Marquette is going to have Biden up double digits in Wisconsin later today.

Where's my NYT/Siena NV and OH polls, Buzz?!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

ABC/WaPo poll was not particularly devastating.

I'm inclined to agree.

It was terrible for Trump, but it wasn't absolutely earth-shattering and shocking considering what we've seen over the past week (though devastating doesn't necessarily mean shocking).  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Are we so sure that they were referencing the ABC/WaPo poll?

What I was saying (not sure about Ljube) was that I'm not certain that the ABC/WaPo poll was the one to which Wasserman was referring. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I expect a strong Biden swing in De Soto and Pearl counties.

De Soto...no. From someone who lived there, no. The swing to Biden will be across the border in Germantown.

Pearl County doesn't exist?

Think he meant Pearl River County -- one of my favorite county names Nationwide. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1315454974843932672

Prepare yourselves

Inject in my veins.  Anyways, I think it will have Biden up 49-47.

Snip

Oh please. All I heard directly following GWB’s presidency in 2008 and Obama’s big ‘08 victory, was that Bush destroyed the Republican Party forever, and how 2008 was a realigning election.

Ask how 2010, 2014, and 2016 went. Elections are just cycles.

I imagine that the GOP felt invincible after 1984 (and 1988 to a lesser extent).  

After a fourth blowout loss in five cycles (if we're including 1988), the Democrats were pretty scrambled and unable to unite around any sort of movement that could even begin to rival Reaganism.  It was, of course, over ten years before I was born, but I assume that there were those in the GOP who believed that the Democrats wouldn't win the Presidency for many more cycles.  

And then, enter William J. Clinton....

(Paging OSR and his knowledge of 1980s-GOP politics).  

--

More to the subject of this thread, though, I rolled my eyes when Trump supporters were crowing about how 2016 was the death of the Democratic Party.  Ditto for those who believe that Trumpism will outright kill the GOP, regardless of this year's election results.