PA State Legislature Megathread

[ctherainbow]

Thanks for stopping by for a breakdown of the Pennsylvania state legislative elections this November!  Strap in, because there's a lot to cover.

The PA state legislature consists of 50 Senators, elected to 4-year terms, staggered so that only half the seats are contested per election(this year are the even-numbered seats), and 203 Representatives, each serving a 2-year term, and each up for election every cycle.  A total of 228 seats will be contested in 2018.

The current partisan makeup of the state Senate is 33R/16D, with one vacant Republican seat.  The state House is 120R/82D, with one vacant Republican seat.

Let's take a look at the Senate:



District 2:

Democrat:  Christine Tartaglione (I)

Christine, who has represented this North/Northeast Philly district since 1995, is unopposed in the general election.  In 2014, she curbstomped her opponent with almost 80% of the vote.  Strong D.

District 4:

Democrat:  Art Haywood (I)

District 4 was initially going to be contested in the general election, but Art's Republican opponent dropped out of the race in July.  Another Philadelphia-based district, along with portions of Montgomery County, this district would not have been competitive even with a Republican challenger.  Strong D.

District 6:

Democrat:  Tina Davis
Republican:  Robert Tomlinson (I)

Our first contested district!  District 6 is a Bucks County district, which means it's a battle of attracting rich/upper middle class swing-ish suburban voters.  In 2016, Bucks voters split the ticket between Clinton and Toomey, so this is definitely toss-up territory.  District 6 is in the southern portion of Bucks County, which is more heavily Democratic, but Tomlinson is also an incumbent since 1995, and won his last election in a good Republican year with over 60% of the vote.  Davis, the current representative of PA House District 141, is the owner of a small trucking business, and is a credible challenger to Tomlinson, though in September, her husband was charged with housing assistance theft, so it remains to be seen just how much that could impact her campaign.  Tilt R.

District 8:

Democrat:  Anthony Williams (I)

And we're back into safe territory.  Another Philly-based district(plus portions of Delaware County), represented by Anthony Williams, longtime state legislator and past candidate for governor and mayor of Philadelphia.  He's running unopposed in the general.  Strong D.

District 10:

Democrat:  Steve Santarsiero
Republican:  Marguerite Quinn

Our first open district!  Also another Bucks County district, but farther north, which in Bucks County generally means more Republican.  Santarsiero, a former state rep and failed challenger in 2016 for a US House seat, is facing off against Quinn, a state rep.  Democratic turnout numbers in the primary were impressive, despite it being uncontested.  Definitely one to watch.  Tossup.

District 12:

Democrat:  Maria Collett
Republican:  Stewart Greenleaf Jr.

Another Bucks/Montgomery County Philly suburb district.  Longtime state senator Stewart Greenleaf is retiring, and Junior is looking to take over.  It's a swing area, but if there's one thing that Pennsylvanians love, it's not changing, so a legacy candidate should perform better than your average Joe.  Tilt R.

District 14:

Democrat:  John Yudichak (I)

District 14 contains Carbon County and portions of Luzerne County, including the city of Wilkes-Barre.  John Yudichak is running unopposed in the general election.  Strong D.

District 16:

Democrat:  Mark Pinsley
Republican:  Pat Browne (I)

District 16 is in Lehigh County, including the city of Allentown.  Incumbent Pat Browne is vulnerable, but edged out a victory in his last competitive election back in 2006.  Tilt R.

District 18:

Democrat:  Lisa Boscola (I)

In District 18, composed of portions of Lehigh and Northhampton Counties, incumbent Lisa Boscola is running unopposed.  Strong D.

District 20:

Republican:  Lisa Baker (I)
Green:  Jay Sweeny

District 20, my home district, is a sprawling one that covers Pike, Wayne, and Wyoming Counties, as well as portions of Susquehanna and Luzerne Counties.  Incumbent Lisa Baker is not facing a credible challenge.  Strong R.

District 22:

Democrat:  John Blake (I)
Republican:  Frank Scavo III

Portions of Luzerne and Monroe County, plus Lackawanna County, with the city of Scranton and its suburbs, form District 22.  Incumbent John Blake has safely won re-election in more Republican years, and looks to do so again this year.  Strong D.

District 24:

Democrat:  Linda Fields
Republican:  Bob Mensch (I)

Portions of Berks, Bucks, and Montgomery Counties make up District 24.  Incumbent Bob Mensch is theoretically vulnerable against a strong challenger in a wave year, but starts out as the favorite here.  Lean R.

District 26:

Democrat:  Timothy Kearny
Republican:  Thomas McGarrigle (I)

Mostly parts of Delaware County, with a small chunk of Chester County, this Philly suburb district only gave McGarrigle 52% of the vote in the 2014 election cycle.  He's in trouble this cycle given the national environment, and could get clobbered if the suburbs swing hard to the left.  Tilt D.

District 28:

Democrat:  Judith McCormick Higgins
Republican:  Kristin Hill

District 28 includes most of York County, including the city of York.  Formerly represented by current gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner, the open seat looks to be an easy Republican hold, as twice as many Republicans turned out as Democrats for the primaries, though both were contested.  Past elections have also seen the Republican candidate getting 65-85% of the vote in the general election, so this seat shouldn't be competitive.  Strong R.

District 30:

Democrat:  Emily Garbuny Best
Republican:  Judith Ward

Apparently there are many politically involved Judiths, as District 30, a sprawling south-central PA district, features Judith Ward running to replace John Eichelberger, who unsuccessfully ran for a US House seat this cycle.  A heavily Republican district, this one is unlikely to flip.  Strong R.

District 32:

Democrat:  Pamela Gerard
Republican:  Patrick Stefano (I)

District 32 is a mostly rural Southwestern PA district, on the border with West Virginia, but not terribly far away from Pittsburgh.  Incumbent Patrick Stefano only garnered 57% of the vote in 2014, but I don't see him as particularly vulnerable this cycle, as there's not as much elasticity in this district as in other areas of the state.  Likely R.

District 34:

Democrat:  Ezra Nanes
Republican:  Jake Corman (I)

Encompassing much of Central PA, including Penn State's Main Campus, District 34 has a serious Democratic hotspot in State College, but the effect of that is diluted by the vast tracts of heavily Republican turf in rural Centre and neighboring counties.  Ezra Nanes might accidentally attract the Amish and Quaker vote with his first name, but this still looks to be a Republican hold.  Likely R.

District 36:

Democrat:  William Troutman Jr.
Republican:  Ryan Aument (I)

A Lancaster County district, District 36 is right smack in Amish country.  Incumbent Ryan Aument annihilated his last challenger by taking 72% of the vote, and barring a miracle, this seat is not competitive.  Strong R.

District 38:

Democrat:  Lindsey Williams
Republican:  Jeremy Shaffer

District 38 stretches along the top part of Allegheny County, and was represented by Randy Vulakovich, but he was defeated in the Republican primary by Jeremy Shaffer, who now faces Lindsey Williams.  The Republican primary was an ugly establishment vs conservative wing affair, and 5,000 less Republicans turned out to vote than Democrats in the district primary.  Williams has also released internal polling showing her cresting the 50% mark.  Lean D.

Williams internal poll:  https://www.pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/internal-poll-shows-democrat-state-senate-nominee-lindsey-williams-with-9-point-lead-over-republican-jeremy-shaffer/Content?oid=10458165  (citation via PittsburghSteel)

District 40:

Democrat:  Tarah Probst
Republican:  Mario Scavello (I)

Covering Northampton and Monroe County portions of the Poconos, District 40 has been a somewhat Republican-leaning district for years.  However, the Poconos continue to see an influx of more diverse and liberal ex-city dwellers, and Mario Scavello could very well be in trouble this cycle.  Tilt R.

District 42:

Democrat:  Wayne Fontana (I)

Another Allegheny County district, this one is uncontested.  Strong D.

District 44:

Democrat:  Katie Muth
Republican:  John Rafferty (I)

Another that falls into the “distant Philly suburb” category, District 44 is a Berks/Chester/Montgomery County seat that's just Republican enough that Rafferty should be able to pull this off and not sweat too much doing it.  However, this cycle looks to be his closest in years.  Lean R.

District 46:

Democrat:  James Craig
Republican:  Camera Bartolotta (I)

Covering the southwest corner of Pennsylvania, District 46 is a swing district that flipped Republican in 2014, and looks to flip again this cycle.  James Craig has a compelling family backstory that's tangled up in the opioid epidemic, and Bartolotta is vulnerable even without a strong challenger.  However, Craig's campaign is currently being dogged by allegations of fraudulent signatures on his nomination petition, and Bartolotta is bringing that up every chance she gets.  Tossup.

District 48:

Democrat:  Lois Herr
Republican:  Mike Folmer (I)

Stretching from some of the Harrisburg suburbs out to Lebanon County, District 48 has a strong enough Republican lean that it shouldn't be competitive.  Strong R.

District 50:

Democrat:  Sue Mulvey
Republican:  Michele Brooks (I)

Located outside the city of Erie in Northwest PA, District 50's Michele Brooks should not face a significant challenge, despite her district encompassing some city suburbs.  Likely R.

Summary of district analysis:


(Map via PragmaticPopulist; non-atlas colors)

Strong R: 20, 28, 30, 36, 48
Likely R: 32, 34, 50
Lean R: 24, 44
Tilt R: 6, 12, 16, 40
Tossup: 10, 46
Tilt D: 26
Lean D: 38
Likely D:
Strong D: 2, 4, 8, 14, 18, 22, 42

Potential State Senate 2019:

Great Dem result:  26/24
Middle Ground:  31/19
Great GOP result: 34/16

I see very little chance of Democrats taking control of the PA State Senate, but they do have a bunch of good pickup opportunities in the southeast and southwest portions of the state, while they may be able to pluck another seat from the Poconos.  Whether or not these seats flip largely depends on flipping upper-class whites in Southeast PA, and attracting blue-collar workers in Southwest PA.  If the blue wave is strong, Dems could potentially flip 8 seats, while if the evening goes very well for the GOP, they could barely hold on to almost all their current seats, but as of now, no Dem seats are vulnerable to flipping.

Hopefully you guys enjoy the rundown/analysis, and please comment if you live in a certain district or are familiar with a campaign and have information that I might not know about.

[ctherainbow]

The entire State House is up for election:



District 1:

Democrat:  Patrick Harkins (I)

Uncontested Erie city district.  Strong D.

District 2:

Democrat:  Robert Merski
Republican:  Timothy Kuzma

Very Democratic Erie city district.  Strong D.

District 3:

Democrat:  Ryan Bizzarro (I)

Uncontested Erie County district.  Strong D.

District 4:

Republican:  Curtis Sonney (I)

Uncontested Erie County district.  Strong R.

District 5:

Republican:  Barry Jozwiak (I)

Uncontested Berks County district.  Strong R.

District 6:

Republican:  Bradley Roae (I)

Uncontested Crawford and Erie County district.  Strong R.

District 7:
 
Democrat:  Mark Longietti (I)

Uncontested Mercer County district.  Strong D.

District 8:

Democrat:  Lisa Boeving-Learned
Republican:  Ted Nesbit (I)

Very Republican Mercer/Butler County district.  Strong R.

District 9:

Democrat:  Chris Sainato (I)
Republican:  Gregory Michalek

Incumbent Sainato unlikely to lose this Lawrence County district. Likely D.

District 10:

Republican:  Aaron Bernstine (I)
Green:  Darcelle Slappy

Incumbent Bernstine does not face a serious challenge in this Beaver/Butler/Lawrence County district.  The district is close enough that Dems could have given him a run for his money if they hadn't lost their prospective nominee to ballot issues.  Strong R.

District 11:

Republican:  Brian Ellis (I)
Independent:  Samuel Doctor

In this Butler County district, incumbent Brian Ellis has not been challenged since 2008, when he won his district comfortably.  His winning record looks unlikely to change this cycle.  Strong R.

District 12:  

Democrat:  Daniel Smith Jr.
Republican:  Daryl Metcalfe (I)

Another Butler County district, this one represented by infamous heterosexual Daryl Metcalfe, who you may know from his meltdown over another legislator touching his arm, and who has called fellow representative Brian Sims a “lying homosexual”.  Unfortunately, Daryl's district heavily favors him, and despite the outrage following his several minor scandals, a contested primary on the Democratic side drew only over half Metcalfe's primary vote.  Likely R.

District 13:

Democrat:  Susannah Walker
Republican:  John Lawrence (I)
Libertarian:  Dominic Pirocchi

District 13 contains portions of Lancaster/Chester County, and though incumbent Lawrence has held the seat since 2010, he's not a particularly strong incumbent, and Sue Walker looks to be a strong challenger.  With a Libertarian candidate in play this cycle as well, Lawrence is in danger.  Tossup.

District 14:

Democrat:  Amy Fazio
Republican:  Jim Marshall (I)

A weirdly shaped Beaver/Butler County district, this one looks like a safe Republican hold.  Incumbent Jim Marshall won by 17 points in his first re-election cycle in 2008, and despite relatively high turnout in the Democratic primary, I don't see him losing this year.  Strong R.

District 15:

Democrat:  Terri Mitko
Republican:  Joshua Kail

Formerly represented by unsuccessful Senate candidate Jim Christiana, who ran against Lou Barletta for the Republican nomination, District 15 covers portions of Beaver/Washington County.  Though Republican-leaning, the open seat gives Democrats their best opportunity to flip the seat back since Christiana took the seat by 3 points in 2008 against an incumbent.  Another one to watch, especially given the recent Dem energy in southwestern PA.  Tilt R.

District 16:

Democrat:  Robert Matzie (I)

Uncontested Allegheny/Beaver County district.  Strong D.

District 17:

Republican:  Parke Wentling (I)

Uncontested Crawford/Erie/Lawrence/Mercer County district.  Strong R.

District 18:

Democrat:  James Lamb III
Republican:  Gene DiGirolimo(I)

A Bucks County swing district, District 18 features an incumbent who first won the seat in 1994 and has not been challenged for it in recent memory.  That changed this year, and given the national environment and the district's potential for swing, even a longtime incumbent like DiGirolimo should be worried.  Tilt R.

District 19:

Democrat:  Jake Wheatley Jr. (I)

An uncontested Pittsburgh city district.  Strong D.

District 20:

Democrat:  Adam Ravenstahl (I)

An uncontested Pittsburgh city based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 21:

Democrat:  Sara Innamorato

Uncontested open Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 22:

Democrat:  Peter Schweyer (I)

Uncontested Allentown district.  Strong D.

District 23:

Democrat:  Dan Frankel (I)
Green:  Jay Ting Walker

Pittsburgh district.  Dan Frankel does not face a strong challenger.  Strong D.

District 24:

Democrat:  Edward Gainey (I)

Uncontested majority Pittsburgh Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 25:

Democrat:  Brandon Markosek
Republican:  Steven Schlauch

Allegheny County district.  Incumbent Joe Markosek's son is running to succeed his father to the seat.  Generally a Democratic district, although not as strongly as other nearby ones, and past election numbers in this district haven't always matched the national swing. Likely D.

District 26:

Democrat:  Pamela Hacker
Republican:  Timothy Hennessey (I)

A Chester/Montgomery County district, this is a very swing area, and though incumbent Hennessey has fended off many challengers over his 13 terms, he would be right to be very concerned this cycle.  The environment is against him, and it remains to be seen if his long incumbency is a boon or shackle come November.  Tossup.

District 27:

Democrat:  Daniel Deasy Jr. (I)

Uncontested Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 28:

Democrat:  Emily Skopov
Republican:  Mike Turzai (I)

Republican Allegheny County district.  Turzai, current Speaker of the State House, should have no problem getting re-elected in this district.  Strong R.

Skopov internal poll: https://p.pghcitypaper.com/media/pdf/emily_skopov_mike_turzai_poll_memo.pdf

District 29:

Democrat:  Andrew Dixon
Republican:  Meghan Schroeder

A northern Bucks County district, District 29's longtime incumbent Bernie O'Neill is not on the ballot this year, making this race in a swing district one to watch.  The result is going to entirely depend on how far the Philly suburbs swing this year.  Tilt R.

District 30:

Democrat:  Elizabeth Monroe
Republican:  Hal English (I)

An Allegheny County district that looks like it may flip this year.  Incumbent Hal English last fended off a challenger in 2012 by 13 points, so I give him the advantage, but not by much.  Tilt R.

District 31:

Democrat:  Perry Warren (I)
Republican:  Ryan Gallegher

Another Bucks County district.  This one was really tight in 2016; incumbent Warren only won by 0.2%.  He's facing off against his challenger from that election again, but the electoral environment is different this year, and I expect Warren to defend his seat, if not by much.  Lean D.

District 32:

Democrat:  Anthony DeLuca (I)

Uncontested Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 33:

Democrat:  Frank Dermody (I)
Republican:  Joshua Nulph

Allegheny/Westmoreland County district; incumbent Dermody has faced several strong challenges before, but should easily win re-election this cycle.  Likely D.

District 34:

Democrat:  Summer Lee

Uncontested partial Pittsburgh Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 35:

Democrat:  Austin Davis (I)

Uncontested Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 36:

Democrat:  Harry Readshaw III (I)

Uncontested Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 37:

Democrat:  Suzanne Delahunt
Republican:  Mindy Fee (I)

Lancaster County district(including HersheyPark).  Mindy Fee garnered over 70% of the vote in her last two contested elections, and that area is full of upper class Republicans.  Strong R.

District 38:

Democrat:  William Kortz II (I)

Uncontested Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 39:

Democrat:  Robert Rhoderick Jr.
Republican:  Michael Puskaric

Partial Allegheny/Washington County district formerly represented by Rick Saccone, who lost to Conor Lamb in the 18th Congressional District special election.  Saccone was barely able to take the seat in 2010, and again barely hold it in 2012, then cruised through the 2014/16 cycles.  But with him out of the picture, and the electoral environment favoring Democrats, this is a likely pickup opportunity, and would add insult to injury for the Southwest PA GOP.  Tilt D.

District 40:

Democrat:  Sharon Guidi
Republican:  Natalie Mihalik Stuck

Partial Allegheny/Washington County district.  In the race to replace former incumbent John Maher, Natalie Stuck is favored in this Republican district.  Likely R.


District 41:

Democrat:  Michele Wherley
Republican:  Brett Miller (I)

Lancaster County district, with a two-term Republican incumbent who has been surprisingly very weak given that this district is in the middle of Amish country.  There doesn't seem to be much elasticity here, though.  Lean R.

District 42:

Democrat:  Dan Miller (I)

Uncontested Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 43:

Democrat:  Jennie Porter
Republican:  Keith Greiner (I)

Another Lancaster County Amish country district, but this one with a more solid incumbent, and harder right lean.  Strong R.

District 44:

Democrat:  Michele Knoll
Republican:  Valerie Gaydos

Republican Allegheny County district.  Incumbent Mark Mustio isn't running this year, but even as an open district, the partisan lean should keep the seat in Republican hands.  Likely R.

District 45:

Democrat:  Anita Astorino Kulik (I)

Uncontested Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 46:

Democrat:  Byron Timmins
Republican:  Jason Ortitay (I)

In this Allegheny/Washington County district, incumbent Jason Ortitay has only been in office two terms, and he may lose his seat this cycle.  In 2010, this district went Dem by 8 points, but was carried by Ortitay with a 20 point margin in 2016.  Depending on how hard Southwest PA swings, with statewide candidates like Fetterman turning out the Dem base, this seat could flip.  Tilt R.

District 47:

Democrat:  Michael Wascovich
Republican:  Keith Gillespie (I)

York County district which leans hard enough Republican that Gillespie shouldn't face much of a challenge getting re-elected.  Strong R.

District 48:

Democrat:  Clark Mitchell Jr.
Republican:  Timothy O'Neal (I)

Washington County district that is held by an incumbent who was just elected this May in a special election.  Clark Mitchell Jr is looking for a rematch in November, but will he be able to unseat O'Neal after failing to beat him just earlier this year?  Had the previous incumbent Brandon Neuman not resigned to become a judge, this likely would have been a hold for Democrats.  Tilt R.

District 49:

Democrat:  Steven Toprani
Republican:  Bud Cook (I)

Fayette/Washington County swing district that has a good chance of flipping this November.  2014 results favored Democrats by 13 points, while current incumbent Cook prevailed by only 8 points in 2016.  Tilt D.

District 50:

Democrat:  Pam Snyder (I)
Republican:  Elizabeth McClure

In this Southwest PA district that covers Green County and parts of Fayette/Washington County, McClure is seeking a 2016 rematch with 3-term incumbent Pam Snyder.  Snyder won by 6 points in 2016, so it's unlikely that McClure manages this upset.  Likely D.

District 51:

Democrat:  Timothy Mahoney
Republican:  Matthew Dowling (I)

A partial Fayette/Somerset County district in Southwest PA.  In 2016, Dowling defeated then-incumbent Mahoney by 6 points, and this November, Mahoney wants his seat back.  Mahoney will have to make the case as to why he deserves his seat back after losing it, but the national environment does favor him, and Dems in the area will be energized.  Tilt D.

District 52:

Democrat:  Ethan Keedy
Republican:  Ryan Warner (I)

Fayette/Westmoreland County district that is swing territory, but seems to have developed a more Republican lean over the past few elections.  This one could be close, but it looks like a Republican hold.  Tilt R.

District 53:

Democrat:  Steven Malagari
Republican:  George Szekely II
Libertarian:  John Waldenberger

Open Montgomery County district that could be close, but is likely going to be a Republican hold.  The partisan lean of the district insulates Szekely as he looks to replace former incumbent Robert Godshall, but given enough swing and Libertarian votes, the district could end up being competitive.  Lean R.

District 54:

Democrat:  Jonathan McCabe
Republican:  Robert Brooks

Yet another Allegheny/Westmoreland County district, this one has a Republican lean that should keep it on the GOP side of the aisle.  Likely R.

District 55:

Democrat:  Joseph Petrarca (I)

Uncontested Armstrong/Indiana/Westmoreland County district.  Strong D.

District 56:

Democrat:  Douglas Hunt
Republican:  George Dunbar (I)

Westmoreland County district that can easily be competitive in a wave year.  Incumbent George Dunbar starts out as the favorite, but watch this one.  Tilt R.

District 57:

Democrat:  Collin Warren
Republican:  Eric Nelson (I)

Solidly Republican Westmoreland County district.  Nelson has faced challenges every recent election cycle, and easily defeated them all.  It'll likely be closer than Nelson is used to, but he should win with no problem.  Strong R.

District 58:

Democrat:  Mary Popovich
Republican:  Justin Walsh (I)

District 58 is another Westmoreland County district, but this one is far more competitive than District 57.  Incumbent Walsh convincingly defeated Popovich last cycle, but she's back for a rematch.  Can the wave overcome the stigma of a failed candidacy?  Turnout will be a big factor here.  Lean R.

District 59:

Democrat:  Clare Dooley
Republican:  Mike Reese (I)

Partial Somerset/Westmoreland County district that is solidly conservative.  Strong R.

District 60:

Republican:  Jeffrey Pyle (I)

Uncontested Armstrong/Butler/Indiana County district.  Strong R.

District 61:

Democrat:  Liz Hanbidge
Republican:  Catherine Harper (I)

A Montgomery County district, this one has a Republican lean, but not so much that it's non-competitive.  Incumbent Harper is the favorite here, and probably ends up pulling it out in the end.  Lean R.

District 62:

Democrat:  Logan Dellafiora
Republican:  James Struzzi II (I)

Very Republican Indiana County district that has had a few Democratic representatives in the past, but still doesn't look competitive this cycle.  Likely R.

District 63:

Democrat:  Conrad Warner
Republican:  Donna Oberlander (I)

Rural district encompassing parts of Armstrong/Forest County, plus all of Clarion County.  Strong R.

District 64:

Democrat:  John Kluck
Republican:  R. Lee James (I)

District 64 covers part of Butler County and all of Venango County, and is rural and extremely Republican.  Strong R.

District 65:

Republican:  Kathy Rapp (I)

Uncontested Crawford/Forest/Warren County district.  Strong R.

District 66:

Democrat:  Kerith Taylor
Republican:  Cris Dush (I)

Rural Western PA district covering part of Indiana County and all of Jefferson County.  Heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 67:

Democrat:  Maryanne Cole
Republican:  Martin Causer (I)

Northern rural district encompassing Cameron/McKean County, as well as part of Potter County.
 Strong R.

For more seats, starting with District 68:  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300810.msg6401237#msg6401237

Summary of district analysis:


(Map via PragmaticPopulist; non-atlas colors)

Strong R: 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 14, 17, 28, 37, 43, 47, 57, 59, 60, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 73, 75, 78, 79, 80, 82, 84, 85, 86, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 97, 99, 100, 101, 102, 105, 106, 107, 108, 110, 111, 116, 117, 120, 124, 125, 130, 139, 169, 193, 196
Likely R: 12, 40, 44, 54, 62, 69, 81, 87, 88, 98, 109, 128, 129, 134, 142, 147, 160, 162, 171, 187, 199
Lean R: 41, 53, 58, 61, 122, 131, 137, 138, 152, 167, 176, 183, 189
Tilt R: 15, 18, 29, 30, 46, 48, 52, 56, 83, 145, 151, 155, 165, 168
Tossup: 13, 26, 104, 143, 144, 158, 163  
Tilt D: 114, 156, 161, 178, 39, 49, 51, 146, 150, 157, 170
Lean D: 31, 76, 115, 74, 177
Likely D: 9, 25, 33, 50, 71, 112, 119
Strong D: 1, 2, 3, 7, 16, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 27, 32, 34, 35, 36, 38, 42, 45, 55, 70, 72, 77, 95, 96, 103, 113, 118, 121, 123, 126, 127, 132, 133, 135, 136, 140, 141, 148, 149, 153, 154, 159, 164, 166, 172, 173, 174, 175, 179, 180, 181, 182, 184, 185, 186, 188, 190, 191, 192, 194, 195, 197, 198, 200, 201, 202, 203

Possible State House 2019:

Great Dem result:  91/112
Middle Ground:  108/95
Great GOP result: 123/80

[ctherainbow]

Dems win the house, not the senate.

In HD-38, I cited it in the Congressional Ballot thread, Williams released an internal poll today with her beating Shaffer by 9 points. The district went to Romney by about 6 points and to Clinton by 0.5 so a flip is highly likely.

The poll also showed Trump underwater by 20 points in approval in the district.

Thanks for the info!  My personal predictions here are rather conservative; especially in the Philly 'burbs, since I don't trust rich white Bucks County voters to flip.      But I'm gonna look further into the Western PA races; Lamb paved the way and fired up the area Dems, and Fetterman seems to be keeping that momentum going.

[ctherainbow]

You guys are lucky, my state will never be competitive on the legislature level.

Anyway, I congratulate you going through the trouble of doing this Ctherainbow and welcome to the forum!

 I do see that many seats are at lean/tilt R, and so it does look like, if a large wave hits the area, the state senate can go in a wave, though I do think its the one to stay R most likely.

Thank you!

There are a number of competitive seats, but it would take a blue tsunami for Dems to retake the State Senate.  However, the House looks like it could flip, which would leave us with majority Dem divided state government, which is more representative of the state.

[ctherainbow]

Love reading these from you and maineiac! I do think though that you’re being a little bearish on Dem’s chances in the Philly suburbs. If Wolf and Casey are indeed crushing it statewide, Philly is gonna be a bloodbath. People like Tina Davis and Steve Santarsiero would be in tossups at worst.

Glad you're enjoying it!   

I will freely admit that my personal predictions are very conservative in terms of flipping seats; given my long residence in the state and personal observations of regional characteristics, I don't trust the Philly 'burbs to be as elastic as polling is suggesting.  But that's why I have many seats as Tilt R; I didn't want to use Tossups if possible, but the Tilt seats could very easily flip if the wave turns out to be as big as expected by many.  As my free time permits, I'm going to do deeper dives into each race and analyze past vote totals on a precinct level to try to get a more exact view of what people can expect, so stay tuned!

[ctherainbow]

Would the State Senate be easier to flip if the state legislature was drawn fairly by an independent commission?

Well, since PA state legislative redistricting is done by a five-member commission that includes the party leadership of both sides, plus one ideally neutral party, redistricting isn't necessarily going to result in partisan gerrymanders in favor of one party, but it does favor incumbents, and disfavor independent voices within each party.  A legislatively independent commission would likely result in districts with more vulnerable incumbents, making those seats easier to flip.  However, I doubt that would be enough for a Senate flip in this election cycle, because there are too many districts with heavily Republican areas at play.

[ctherainbow]

Great stuff! I love reading Legislative previews. Personally I think Dems flip the House and pick up 5-6 Senate seats

Glad you're enjoying it!   

I'm seeing somewhere between 4-7 Senate seats flipping, unless something drastically changes before November.

[ctherainbow]

Is it even theoretically possible to gerrymander the PA State Senate to favor Dems or is it just too Republican?

You could, in theory.  You would have to turn Philadelphia and Pittsburgh into electoral pies, with districts that radiated from the city centers to capture big chunks of more conservative suburbs and rural areas, while packing the remaining rural areas of the state, plus many large towns, into very safe Republican districts.  There's a saying that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between, and while it may not be entirely accurate, close to 20% of the entire state population lives just within the municipal borders of those two cities, and they are the most reliably Democratic areas in general.

[ctherainbow]

You can also draw a fair-ish looking Senate map where Clinton won 25 seats and Trump 25. I saw a map where Obama 2012 won like 28 seats or something without any bacon-stripping of the cities. It helps Democrats a bit that Republicans are pretty packed in their own right in the rural parts of the state, offsetting the D packing in Philly. And having an advantage in the suburbs helps ton.

It's definitely possible to draw maps that split the chamber evenly on paper, but given how election cycles tend to swing in this state, there's always going to be some disparity between how the districts are drawn and the composition of the PA legislature.  Obama outran a bunch of local Dems in 2012, and split tickets are definitely still a thing in many PA districts, so it can be difficult to analyze PA legislative districts using statewide candidates' vote tallies.  That being said, there is definitely some partisan and incumbent bias in the current maps; some of the districts are almost as badly gerrymandered as the infamous US Congressional gerrymanders that PA had before this year's election, so that could very much be improved.

[ctherainbow]

It's definitely possible to draw maps that split the chamber evenly on paper, but given how election cycles tend to swing in this state, there's always going to be some disparity between how the districts are drawn and the composition of the PA legislature.  Obama outran a bunch of local Dems in 2012, and split tickets are definitely still a thing in many PA districts, so it can be difficult to analyze PA legislative districts using statewide candidates' vote tallies.  That being said, there is definitely some partisan and incumbent bias in the current maps; some of the districts are almost as badly gerrymandered as the infamous US Congressional gerrymanders that PA had before this year's election, so that could very much be improved.

I could see that being the case. The big surprise to me is Yurichak getting a free pass, considering how NEPA swung right in 2016

I like your signature, btw

Yudichak definitely lucked out.  His district does contain the cities of Wilkes-Barre and Hazleton, which helps him, and the wave year/suburban swing would also help, but it's still a competitive enough district that I'm very surprised not to see a challenger this cycle.

And thank you!   8]

[ctherainbow]

This is excellent thank you!

No problem!  Hopefully I can finish the 203 seat House breakdown before election day.   

[ctherainbow]

Perry Warren is a good man - hope he wins again.

I think he'll be okay; the electoral environment is a lot more favorable to him this cycle, plus he has a little incumbency under his belt.  Is he your local rep?

[ctherainbow]

Yes. I live in Newtown atm.

Cool!  You're right across the river from where I was born.   

We'll all be watching how you and your neighbors vote in November; Bucks is gonna be a crucial county.

[ctherainbow]

Should've reserved more posts for the House, but it'll just have to be split up.  Starting where I left off:

District 68:

Democrat:  Carrie Heath
Republican:  Clint Owlett (I)

In this rural northeast/northcentral district that includes parts of Bradford/Potter County, plus all of Tioga County, Carrie Heath is seeking a rematch of the recent special election to fill this seat, where she lost 3 to 1.  She's not going to win this time, either.  Strong R.

District 69:

Democrat:  Jeff Cole
Republican:  Carl Metzgar (I)

Pennsylvania's sexiest district, District 69 covers parts of Bedford/Somerset County in Southern PA.  The area has a closer margin of registered Dems/GOP than you might think, but generally votes Republican.  Likely R.

District 70:

Democrat:  Matthew Bradford (I)
Republican:  Christopher Mundiath

Montgomery County district that includes Norristown.  Incumbent Bradford easily fended off his most recent challengers.  Strong D.

District 71:

Democrat:  Bryan Barbin (I)
Republican:  James Rigby

Partial Cambria/Somerset County district in Western PA that includes the city of Johnstown.  Incumbent Barbin has been challenged in all of the last three election cycles, but has pulled out a win in every one of them, in fact earning his largest margin of victory out of those three in 2016.  I'll have to analyze this one a bit further, but based off past his past electoral performance and the demographics of the district, it looks like Barbin will continue to represent District 71.  Likely D.

District 72:

Democrat:  Frank Burns (I)
Republican:  Gerald Carnicella

Also located in Cambria County, District 72 broke comfortably for incumbent Burns in the past two elections, and the district has plenty of Democratic voters.  Strong D.

District 73:

Republican:  Thomas Sankey (I)

Uncontested Cambria/Clearfield County district.  Strong R.

District 74:

Democrat:  Dan Williams
Republican:  Amber Turner

An open Southeastern PA district in Chester County, this is one of THE races to watch.  Former Republican incumbent Harry Lewis Jr managed to cling to his seat in the past two election cycles, but he isn't on the ballot this year, and the two-point Republican win in 2016 looks to easily flip to a relatively likely Democrat win this cycle.  Lean D.

District 75:

Republican:  Matt Gabler (I)

Uncontested Elk County and partial Clearfield County Central PA district.  Strong R.

District 76:

Democrat:  Michael Hanna Jr.
Republican:  Stephanie Borowicz

Covering portions of Centre County and all of Clinton County, District 76 is a family affair, as Michael Hanna Jr seeks to succeed Michael Hanna Sr, facing off against his father's opponent from 2016, Stephanie Borowicz.  The loss of incumbency in this district is significantly mitigated by Jr being a legacy candidate(Pennsylvanians love keeping things in the family), and despite 2016 being only a four-point win for Hanna Sr, the national environment should put Hanna Jr over the top.  Lean D.

District 77:

Democrat:  H. Scott Conklin (I)

Uncontested Centre County district that includes the city of State College.  Strong D.

District 78:

Democrat:  Deborah Baughman
Republican:  Jesse Topper (I)

A Southcentral PA district that includes parts of Bedford/Franklin County, as well as the entirety of Fulton County, this is a very Republican district.  Strong R.

District 79:

Republican:  Louis Schmitt Jr.

An uncontested Blair County district that includes the city of Altoona, this was a miss for the Democratic Party, as the district has enough Democratic voters that it would have been competitive had Schmitt Jr not been given a free pass.  Strong R.

District 80:

Democrat:  Laura Burke
Republican:  James Gregory

Also in Blair County, District 80 is much more solidly Republican.  Strong R.

District 81:

Democrat:  Richard Rogers Sr
Republican:  Richard Irvin (I)
Libertarian:  Joseph Soloski

A Central PA district that includes portions of Centre/Mifflin County, plus Huntingdon County, this district has a bit of an interesting history, ousting a unicorn/gay Republican incumbent in 2014.  Current incumbent Irvin increased his margin of victory by nearly ten points in 2016, but this year's environment, plus a Libertarian candidate in the mix, should cut into that margin.  However, incumbent Irvin still is the clear favorite here.  Likely R.

District 82:

Republican:  Johnathan Hershey
Independent:  Elizabeth Book

Another Central PA district, encompassing Franklin and Mifflin County in part, and the entirety of Juniata County, District 82 is heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 83:

Democrat:  Airneezer Page-Delhaye
Republican:  Jeff Wheeland (I)

A Lycoming County district that includes the city of Williamsport, this was a Democratic seat for six years before the 2014 election, when then-incumbent Richard Mirabito was ousted by ten points by current incumbent Jeff Wheeland.  The district could swing back this cycle, but I'm concerned that latent NEPA racism will impact black challenger Page-Delahaye's vote totals.  However, having a non-white guy candidate could also energize the Democratic base in the district, so we'll have to see.  Tilt R.

District 84:

Democrat:  Linda Sosniak
Republican:  Garth Everett (I)

Composed of the rural parts of Lycoming County, plus part of Union County, the last contested election here saw incumbent Everett getting 80% of the vote.  Strong R.

District 85:

Democrat:  Jennifer Rager-Kay
Republican:  Fred Keller (I)

A Central PA partial Snyder/Union County district, District 85 has given incumbent Keller at least a 2-1 win the past few contested elections.  Strong R.

District 86:

Democrat:  Karen Anderson
Republican:  Mark K. Keller (I)

Heavily Republican district including all of Perry County and a portion of Cumberland County.  Strong R.

District 87:

Democrat:  Sean Quinlan
Republican:  Greg Rothman (I)

Right across the river from the city of Harrisburg, District 87 is a Cumberland County district that leans a bit farther right than you might expect from suburbs, but there is a significant difference between West Shore and East Shore Harrisburg communities.  While not likely to be a blowout, incumbent Rothman is a clear favorite to win.  Likely R.

District 88:

Democrat:  Jean Marie Foschi
Republican:  Sheryl Delozier (I)

You don't have to travel far to move on to District 88; also a West Shore Harrisburg district, this district has the same general electoral demographics as District 87.  Likely R.

District 89:  

Republican:  Rob Kauffman (I)

Uncontested Franklin County district.  Strong R.

District 90:

Republican:  Paul Schemel (I)

Uncontested Franklin County district.  Strong R.

District 91:

Democrat:  Marty Qually
Republican:  Dan Moul (I)

A relatively safely Republican district in Adams County, surrounding the iconic town of Gettysburg.  Strong R.

District 92:

Democrat:  Shanna Danielson
Republican:  Dawn Keefer (I)

Very solidly Republican partial Cumberland/York County district, located along the Susquehanna.  Strong R.

District 93:

Democrat:  Delma Rivera-Lytle
Republican:  Mike Jones

Another York County district, this one is open, but also heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 94:

Democrat:  Stephen Snell
Republican:  Stanley Saylor (I)

We're still in York County!  District 94, like most areas in York County, is solidly Republican.  Strong R.

District 95:

Democrat:  Carol Hill-Evans (I)

Remember how I just said most areas of York County were solidly Republican?  Except the city of York, which is where District 95 draws its hefty Democratic vote margin.  Also, it's uncontested this cycle.  Strong D.

District 96:

Democrat:  Michael Sturla (I)

Same thing applies to this Lancaster County district, which unlike the surrounding rural areas, contains the city of Lancaster.  Also uncontested.  Strong D.

District 97:

Democrat:  Dana Gulick
Republican:  Steven Mentzer (I)

A non-Lancaster city Lancaster County district.  Same York/Lancaster County rules apply.  Strong R.

District 98:

Democrat:  Mary Auker-Endres
Republican:  David Hickernell (I)
Libertarian:  James Miller

Primarily a Lancaster County district, plus one Dauphin County township, this is another very Republican district.  If Libertarian James Miller runs a hard campaign, he could siphon away some of the vote, but likely not enough to make it close between Hickernell and Auker-Endres.  Likely R.

District 99:

Democrat:  Elizabeth Malarkey
Republican:  David Zimmerman (I)

Still in Lancaster County.  Still not Lancaster city.  Still heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 100:

Democrat:  Dale Hamby
Republican:  Bryan Cutler (I)

Surprise, surprise, it's a contested Lancaster County district.  Dale Hamby lost badly in 2016, by nearly 50 points.  I'm not exactly sure why he's running again.  Strong R.

District 101:

Democrat:  Cesar Liriano
Republican:  Francis Ryan (I)

Well, we've moved out of Lancaster County into Lebanon County, but the demographics are pretty much the same(no offense to anyone in Lancaster/Lebanon/York County, but ya'll pretty homogeneous).  Strong R.

District 102:

Republican:  Russell Diamond (I)

Uncontested Lebanon County district.  Strong R.

District 103:

Democrat:  Patty Kim (I)
Republican:  Anthony Harrell

This Dauphin County district includes the city of Harrisburg and some of its closest suburbs.  Before this year, the seat hadn't been contested by Republicans since at least 2010, for good reason.  Strong D.

District 104:

Democrat:  Patricia Smith
Republican:  Susan Helm (I)

Though this partial Dauphin/Lebanon County district has been represented by a Republican since 1969.  However, incumbent Susan Helm has only broken 55% once in the last four election cycles, and that was in 2016, when she won 55.7% of the vote.  Helm is a longtime incumbent, which will help her, but this cycle is going to be tough for her.  If this was an open seat, I'd put it at Lean D, but it's not.  Tossup.

District 105:

Democrat:  Eric Epstein
Republican:  Andrew Lewis

Another Dauphin County district, open District 105 has a weighty Republican lean, and though the GOP lead may shrink because of the loss of incumbency, this still looks to be a safe hold.  Strong R.

District 106:

Democrat:  Jill Linta
Republican:  Thomas Mehaffie (I)

My old Dauphin County district back when I was in college, District 106 is another solidly Republican district; despite covering suburban areas, which in PA are usually swing areas, this district's suburbs are more classically “American Dream” type suburbs, with lower white-collar type, two kids, one dog, family goes to church every Sunday, white picket fence with a pool in the backyard, Republican-voting families.  Strong R.

District 107:

Democrat:  Sarah Donnelly
Republican:  Kurt Masser (I)

Partial Columbia/Northumberland County, plus Montour County, district.  Solidly Republican. Strong R.

District 108:

Republican:  Lynda Schlegel Culver (I)

Uncontested partial Northumberland/Snyder County district.  Strong R.

District 109:

Democrat:  Edward Sanders III
Republican:  David Millard (I)

Columbia County district that incumbent Millard won in 2016 by 30 points, but if you look back further into the electoral record, his margin of victory shrinks as you look towards the first years of the Obama presidency.  Looking at the demographics, though, it still doesn't look like this district will end up being competitive this cycle.  Likely R.

District 110:

Democrat:  Donna Iannone
Republican:  Tina Pickett (I)

NEPA district covering the western part of Susquehanna County, part of Bradford County, and all of Sullivan County, this district borders my home district.  Tina Pickett has not been challenged for her seat in a decade, and for good reason.  This district is overwhelmingly Republican.  Strong R.

District 111:

Democrat:  Rebecca Kinney
Republican:  Johnathan Fritz (I)

My home district, covering most of Susquehanna/Wayne County; District 111 is very Republican.  Despite a few precinct enclaves where Democrats can almost manage 50% of the vote, I don't expect to have a Democrat representing me this upcoming term.  Strong R.

District 112:

Democrat:  Kyle Mullins
Republican:  Ernest Lemoncelli

This Lackwanna County district, formerly held by dueling Democratic representatives Kevin Haggerty and Frank Farina, leans Democratic, though 2016 saw Republican challenger Lemoncelli draw within 6 points.  He's looking to take the seat again this year, but the national environment should insulate Mullins.  Likely D.

District 113:

Democrat:  Martin Flynn (I)

Uncontested Scranton-based Lackawanna County district.  Strong D.

District 114:

Vacant Seat

North-end Lackawanna County district left vacant after the October 16th death of Democratic incumbent Sid Michaels Kavulich.  A special election needs to be called by the state legislature for this competitive district.  Tilt D.

District 115:

Democrat:  Maureen Madden (I)
Republican:  David Parker

A Monroe County district that includes the artsy town of Stroudsburg, this district has been the scene of bitter fighting the past two election cycles.  After David Parker became the first Republican representative the district had since 1969, beating Maureen Madden by 5 points in 2014, Madden turned around and took the seat from him in 2016, beating him by 4 points.  Now he wants the seat back, but between comparing primary results, plus PA generic congressional voter polling, it looks like Madden will be able to hold the seat, barring brilliant campaigning by Parker.  Lean D.

District 116:

Republican:  Tarah Toohill (I)

Uncontested Luzerne County district.  Strong R.

District 117:

Republican:  Karen Boback (I)
Libertarian:  Lou Jasikoff

 Covering parts of Lackawanna and Luzerne County, plus all of Wyoming County,  Boback is facing Louis Jasikoff, who has run against her before.  It will be interesting to see if he can break 10% of the vote this time.  Strong R.

District 118:

Democrat:  Mike Carroll (I)

Uncontested district covering parts of Lackawanna/Luzerne County.  Strong D.

District 119:

Democrat:  Gerald Mullery (I)
Republican:  Justin Behrens

Luzerne County district that's comfortably Democratic enough to point to a Mullery victory in November, in this 2016 rematch. Likely D.

District 120:

Republican:  Aaron Kaufer (I)

Uncontested Luzerne County district.  This is another recruiting miss for Democrats; The seat was held by Democrats as recently as 2014, and would have been competitive this cycle.  Strong R.

District 121:

Democrat:  Eddie Day Pashinski (I)
Republican:  Sue Henry

This Luzerne County district, including the city of Wilkes-Barre, has had 2-1 Democrat voting margins in its most recent elections, albeit against Libertarians.  Strong D.

District 122:

Democrat:  Kara Scott
Republican:  Doyle Heffley (I)

Covering portions of Carbon County, this District leans Republican, but the GOP usually doesn't reach 60% of the vote here.  Kara Scott has an uphill climb here, but could win with some good campaigning and a favorable enough electoral environment.  She's still fighting an incumbent, though.  Lean R.

District 123:

Democrat:  Neal Goodman (I)

Uncontested partial Schuylkill County district.  Strong D.

District 124:

Republican:  Jerry Knowles (I)

Uncontested partial Berks/Carbon/Schuylkill County district.  Strong R.

District 125:

Republican:  Mike Tobash (I)

Uncontested Dauphin/Schuylkill County district.  Strong R.

District 126:

Democrat:  Mark Rozzi (I)

Uncontested Berks County district, including parts of the city of Reading.  Strong D.

District 127:

Democrat:  Thomas Caltagirone (I)
Republican:  Vincent Gagliardo Jr.

Incumbent Caltagirone has represented this Reading city-based Berks County district since 1979.  Given the partisan makeup of the district, that's not likely to change this cycle.  Strong D.

District 128:

Democrat:  Douglas Metcalfe
Republican:  Mark Gillen (I)

A partial Berks/Lancaster County, non-city district, this district is about as reliably Republican as you'd expect given Central PA rural demographics. Likely R.

District 129:

Democrat:  Tricia Wertz
Republican:  Jim Cox (I)

Another partial Berks/Lancaster County district, this one has more of a Democratic margin than District 128, but still leans heavily Republican.  Likely R.

District 130:

Republican:  David Maloney (I)

An uncontested partial Berks County district.  Strong R.

District 131:

Democrat:  Andrew Lee
Republican:  Justin Simmons (I)

A Southeastern PA Lehigh/Montgomery/Northampton County district, the 2014 and 2016 elections here were not very competitive, but if you look back to less Republican-leaning elections, the win margins drop significantly.  Incumbent Simmons starts as the favorite, but a good campaign could put Lee over the top.  Lean R.

District 132:

Democrat:  Michael Schlossberg (I)

An uncontested partial Lehigh County district, which includes a good chunk of the city of Allentown.  Strong D.

District 133:

Democrat:  Jeanne McNeill (I)

An uncontested partial Lehigh County district, including portions of the city of Bethlehem.  Strong D.

More seats, starting with District 134:  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300810.msg6405910#msg6405910

[ctherainbow]

Nicely done. Will be interesting to read after the election.

Oh, no pressure for me to get all 228 correct, then.   

[ctherainbow]

On Ballotpedia they have the total votes cast in the party primary and I see more Democrats voted than Republicans in quite a few districts: Warren Kampf, Tom Murt, Todd Stephens, Joe Emrick, Tom Quigley, Christopher Quinn, Duane Milne...do you find those incumbents to be vulnerable?

https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018#General_election

I haven't gotten to analyze those races yet, but generally when the opposing party casts more votes than the incumbent's, when there's not a contested primary for the opposing party, that would very much suggest that those incumbents are vulnerable.  Also, I glanced at the Quigley race, cuz his name made me giggle, and that man should be TERRIFIED this year.  He's lost his seat in the past, and only won it back by 4 points, then only won again by 2 points in 2016.  That's probably going to be a Lean/Likely D prediction for me.

[ctherainbow]

A couple thoughts about Districts 83 and 87:

Re: 83, the City of Williamsport has just under 30k residents, of whom the percentage of African-Americans is in the low to mid teens. I'm not sure how much of a Democratic Base there is to fire up here with a black candidate. Please note I'm reflecting voter ignorance/racism rather than trumpeting it, but it gets harder for an African-American candidate in a white district with a decidedly "black" name like the Democrat running here, as opposed to a black candidate names "Mike Smith" or the like. (Yes, Barack Obama is an exception of course, but for races with infinitely less media coverage, that's still a barrier to many reachable voters who don't like Trump and their economic policies, but are suspicious of blacks as well).

Re: 87, I question whether there's no difference between the East and West Shore communities. One of my closest friends moved to Harrisburg and I went there many, many times over the years. There's a reason locals have historically also called the West Bank  "the White Bank". Probably why this is a GOP leaning district.

Oh, I'm fully aware that racism will probably play some part in the District 83 election.  The good news is that there's a good chunk of non-latently racist independents who are not going to be bothered by a black candidate, but I know that the potential of a black representative could turn off a small number of conservative Dems, as well as bringing the racists out of the woodwork to vote against her.  We'll have to see which trend prevails in the outcome.

I think you might've misread the District 87 post.  I said that there definitely WAS a difference; trust me, I noticed the bank-based trends while I was living there, too.   

[ctherainbow]

I agree the Senate flipping seems a stretch at first, but if Dems only need to sweep the Tit R or better seats (3 GOP incumbents apiece you rate as Tilt R or Tilt D, plus one toss-up), and then win 2 of three Lean R seats to pull a tie (with LG Fetterman casting the tie-breaker for Dem control), that seems doable in a wave. Of course, you may have a more daunting definition of "lean" than I do.

The key will of course be the Philly burbs (particularly Bucks), where I believe all but two of the seven Tilt/Lean/Tossup R seats are (the others being in greater Allentown and the Poconos).

Yeah, the seats I categorized as "Lean R" will be a stretch for Dems, but could flip if the wave is YUGE.  We'll have to see.  Southeast PA is going to be key for the PA House/Senate, as well as the US House, so it'll be a fun night of results watching.

[ctherainbow]

Even more House seats!

District 134:

Democrat:  Thomas Applebach
Republican:  Ryan Mackenzie (I)

A partial Berks/Lehigh County district, District 134 has been almost competitive in some past elections, especially in 2012.  However, overall this district has a significant Republican advantage.  Likely R.

District 135:

Democrat:  Steve Samuelson (I)

Uncontested partial Northampton County district, including parts of Bethlehem city.  Strong D.

District 136:

Democrat:  Robert Freeman (I)

Uncontested partial Northampton County district, including the county seat city of Easton.  Strong D.

District 137:

Democrat:  Amy Cozze
Republican:  Joe Emrick (I)
Libertarian:  Ed Reagan

Another partial Northampton County district, this one was represented by a Democrat up until 2010, but since then has elected a Republican representative by comfortable margins.  This is almost a Likely R seat, but because of the wave, plus a Libertarian candidate in the mix, I'm going to rate it as a little bit more vulnerable.  Lean R.

District 138:

Democrat:  Dean Donaher
Republican:  Marcia Hahn (I)
Libertarian:  Jake Towne

Also a partial Northampton County district, this one is similar to the prior district, and is in much the same situation, with a Republican incumbent and both a Democratic and Libertarian challenger.  Lean R.

District 139:

Democrat:  Orlando Marrero
Republican:  Michael Peifer (I)

A partial Wayne/Pike County district that is pretty Republican, District 139's incumbent Peifer hasn't been challenged for his seat in a decade.  That changed this year, but it looks very unlikely that challenger Marrero will unseat him, as both primaries were uncontested, and the Republican primary garnered nearly three times as many votes.  Strong R.

District 140:

Democrat:  John Galloway (I)

Uncontested partial Bucks County district.  Strong D.

District 141:

Democrat:  Tina Davis (I)
Republican:  Anthony Sposato

In this partial Bucks County district, incumbent Tina Davis barely won the seat by 2 points in 2010, but since then, has been re-elected by more comfortable margins.  Those include taking 72 percent of the vote in 2012 against current challenger Anthony Sposato, and it looks unlikely that Davis will do any worse this year.  Strong D.

District 142:

Democrat:  Lauren Lareau
Republican:  Frank Farry (I)

A more northern Bucks County district, this district has had only had one term of Democratic control since 1969.  The Republican lean of this district should keep it in in Farry's hands.  Likely R.

District 143:

Democrat:  Wendy Ullman
Republican:  Joseph Flood

An open northern partial Bucks County district, this seat looks to be very competitive this cycle.  If this seat wasn't an open seat, I'd rate it as Lean/Tilt R, but the loss of longtime incumbent Marguerite Quinn will open the race up more, and more Democrats came out to vote in the primary than Republicans.  Tossup.

District 144:

Democrat:  Meredith Buck
Republican:  F. Todd Polinchock

It's another partial Bucks County district!  This one is also an open Republican seat, but looks to be a bit more Republican than the previous district, based off primary numbers.  However, this one is gonna be tight, too.  Tossup.

District 145:

Democrat:  Brian Kline
Republican:  Craig Staats (I)

Guess which county we're in?  You guessed right, this is another partial Bucks County district.  This one has an incumbent, but his vote margins in 2016 were some of the smallest of the Bucks County Republicans.  He might be able to hold on, but he's going to have to fight for it.  Tilt R.

District 146:

Democrat:  Joseph Ciresi
Republican:  Thomas Quigley (I)

This partial Montgomery County district has a messy electoral history.  Incumbent Quigley represented the district from 2004 to 2012, then lost the district to Mark Painter, then took it back in 2014, and then fended off current challenger Joseph Cirsei by only 3 points in 2016.  It looks like Cirsei's second shot at the seat was well-timed.  Tilt D.

District 147:

Democrat:  Joshua Cameron
Republican:  Marcy Toepel (I)

Another partial Montgomery County district, this one is significantly more Republican.  GOP vote margins sit around the 2 to 1 range, and it's unlikely that can be made up enough to make it competitive.  Likely R.

District 148:

Democrat:  Mary Jo Daley (I)

Uncontested partial Montgomery County district.  Strong D.

District 149:

Democrat:  Tim Briggs (I)

Uncontested partial Montgomery County district.  Strong D.

District 150:

Democrat:  Joseph Webster
Republican:  Nick Fountain

Another partial Montgomery County district, this one is an open Republican seat, and should be very competitive.  The electoral environment, plus a slight edge in the primary vote totals, looks to give Webster the edge this cycle.  Tilt D.

District 151:

Democrat:  Sara Johnson Rothman
Republican:  Todd Stephens (I)

Partial Montgomery County district.  This is a competitive district, and it's going to come down to turnout and Democratic energy versus incumbency and the slight Republican lean of the district.  Tilt R.

District 152:

Democrat:  Daryl Boling
Republican:  Thomas Murt (I)

This partial Montgomery County district also includes a little chunk of Philadelphia, and has not been represented by a Democrat in 50 years.  However, Democratic turnout in the primary was 125% of Republican turnout, so there's clearly energy in this race, and it looks to be competitive.  This could easily move to Tilt R/Tossup closer to November.  Lean R.

District 153:

Democrat:  Ben Sanchez
Republican:  Douglas Beaver Jr.
Libertarian:  Marc Bozzacco

A partial Montgomery County district, District 153's former Democratic incumbent Madeleine Dean regularly won re-election by 2-1 margins.  The seat is open now, but with the partisan lean, electoral environment, and Libertarian candidate siphoning off traditionally Republican votes, this seat should stay on the Dem side of the aisle.  Strong D.

District 154:

Democrat:  Steve McCarter (I)
Republican:  Kathleen Bowers

We're still in Montgomery County, and this district is a 4-1 Democratic district.  For some reason, Republicans keep challenging McCarter, and he keeps crushing them.  Not likely to change this year.  Strong D.

District 155:

Democrat:  Danielle Otten
Republican:  Becky Corbin (I)

A partial Chester County district, this is one to watch.  District 155 has had Democratic representatives in the past, but not since 1990.  Incumbent Becky Corbin is vulnerable in this cycle, though she managed to pull nearly as many voters in the primary as the contested Democratic primary.  I'm going to give this to her for now, but only just.  Tilt R.

District 156:

Democrat:  Carolyn Comitta (I)
Republican:  Nicholas Deminski

Also part of Chester County, this district is going to be tight.  Current incumbent Comitta squeaked out a win in 2016 by 25 votes, and both uncontested primaries this year were separated by only 3 votes, but she should hang onto this seat based off of the polling we've seen of the Philly suburbs this cycle.  Tilt D.

District 157:

Democrat:  Melissa Shusterman
Republican:  Warren Kampf (I)

Partial Chester/Montgomery County district, and incumbent Warren Kampf should be very, very scared.  He won by 12 points in 2016, but previous elections saw him winning by as close as 2 points, and the uncontested Democratic primary turned out almost 1,400 more voters than the uncontested GOP primary.  He's very much in trouble.  Tilt D.

District 158:

Democrat:  Christina Sappey
Republican:  Eric Roe (I)

Another partial Chester County district, this one should also be close.  In the good Republican cycle in 2016, incumbent Eric Roe only managed to win by 6 points, and the contested Republican primary this year only drew 127 more voters than the Democratic one.  Tossup.

District 159:

Democrat:  Brian Kirkland (I)
Republican:  Ruth Moton

This Delaware County district was won in 2016 by incumbent Kirkland with 75% of the vote.  This year's challenger Ruth Moton won't topple him, barring a miracle.  Strong D.

District 160:

Democrat:  Anton Andrew
Republican:  Stephen Barrar (I)

District 160 is split between Chester/Delaware County, and incumbent Barrar regularly wins over 60% of the vote.  He's not likely to lose this district, though it could be his tightest re-election in a long time.  Likely R.

District 161:

Democrat:  Leanne Krueger-Braneky (I)
Republican:  Patti Rodgers Morrisette

A Delaware County district, this is a very competitive area.  Out of the past five elections, only one candidate was able to win more than 55% of the vote.  In 2016, current incumbent Krueger-Braneky held the seat by only 2 points.  Her challenger from that election wants a rematch, but will probably not be able to take the seat, especially if suburban swing goes the way polling has suggested.  Tilt D.

District 162:

Democrat:  David Delloso
Republican:  Mary Hopper

This riverside Delaware County district is much more Republican than most Delaware County districts, and though former incumbent Nick Miccarelli retired, leaving the seat open, the partisan lean of the district should allow Mary Hopper to hold the seat for the GOP.  Likely R.

District 163:

Democrat:  Michael Zabel
Republican:  Jamie Santora (I)

Another Delaware County district, this one is more competitive.  Republicans have not been able to break 55% of the vote since 2010, and this cycle should be tough for incumbent Santora.  Tossup.

District 164:

Democrat:  Margo Davidson (I)
Republican:  Inderjit Bains

In this Delaware County district, incumbent Davidson only won the seat in her initial 2010 election by about 7 points.  However, since then, she's settled out at around 80% of the vote, and in a rematch of 2016 against Bains, she's unlikely to lose.  Strong D.

District 165:

Democrat:  Jennifer Omara
Republican:  Alexander Charlton (I)

The current incumbent of this Delaware County district won the seat in 2016 by 12 points, and this is his second term, so voters will have had a chance to get comfortable with him.  This isn't the most competitive Delaware County district, but as stated in other races, suburban swing, electoral environment, and incumbency are all going to be big factors here.  Tilt R.

District 166:

Democrat:  Gregory Vitali (I)
Republican:  Baltazar Rubio

Split between Delaware County and Montgomery County, District 166's incumbent Vitali has represented the district since the year of my birth, and seems to have been steadily increasing his win margins in recent elections.  I wouldn't rate him as vulnerable.  Strong D.

District 167:

Democrat:  Kristine Howard
Republican:  Duane Milne (I)

We're hopping back over to Chester County for this district, which has leaned Republican in recent elections.  I'd have to do more research into the 2016 race to find out why incumbent Milne dropped 4.5 points between 2014 and 2016, but even with that anamalous statistic, Milne looks like the favorite to win.  Lean R.

District 168:

Democrat:  Kristin Seale
Republican:  Christopher Quinn (I)

Heading back into Delaware County, this district is yet another competitive one.  Current incumbent Quinn won the seat in 2016 with 56% of the vote, so it's down to how much his legislative record and recognition bonus weigh against energized Democratic voters.  Tilt R.

District 169:

Democrat:  Sarah Hammond
Republican:  Kate Anne Klunk (I)

Electoral information was a little hard to get for this York County district, but based on what I could find, and looking at the demographics of the area, it looks like incumbent Klunk should be holding this seat after November.  Strong R.

District 170:

Democrat:  Michael Doyle Jr
Republican:  Martina White (I)

This Philadelphia district has to be a top target for state Dems, as it was represented until 2015 by Democrat Brendan Boyle.  Current incumbent Martina White won the special election to replace him, and managed to hold her seat in 2016 with less than 54% of the vote.  This cycle looks dire for her, as Democrat Doyle Jr garnered nearly 1,200 more uncontested primary votes than uncontested incumbent White did, in a district that was decided by only around 2,000 votes last cycle.  Tilt D.

District 171:

Democrat:  Erin McCracken
Republican:  Kerry Benninghoff (I)

This district spans parts of Centre County and Mifflin County, and is pretty Republican.  Challenger McCracken managed to draw pretty close in primary vote totals, but incumbent Benninghoff is still the heavy favorite here.  Likely R.

District 172:

Democrat:  Kevin Boyle (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district that also includes a tiny bit of Montgomery County.  Strong D.

District 173:

Democrat:  Michael Driscoll (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 174:

Democrat:  Edward Neilson (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 175:

Democrat:  Mary Isaacson

Uncontested open Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 176:

Democrat:  Claudette Williams
Republican:  Jack Rader Jr (I)

This 30%+ minority Monroe County district leans more Republican than I initially expected, and a contested primary on the Democratic side didn't come anywhere near the vote total of the uncontested Republican primary.  Despite some historically close elections in this district, it doesn't look to be super competitive this cycle.  Lean R.

District 177:

Democrat:  Joseph Hohenstein
Republican:  Patty Kozlowski

Back to Philadelphia, and this district is another hot one!  Republican incumbent since 1985 John Taylor is not up for re-election this cycle, and the winner of the 4-way Democratic primary still managed to get more primary votes than Republican Kozlowski, even with his winning percentage of only 37%.  This looks to be a pickup for Dems.  Lean D.

District 178:

Democrat:  Helen Tai (I)
Republican:  Wendi Thomas

In this Bucks County district, incumbent Helen Tai has only held the seat since this May's special election, which she won by only 2 points.  In the primary elections, also held in May, Thomas garnered about 400 more votes than Tai, which suggests that independents broke harder for Tai.  I'm going to give Tai the winner's Tilt advantage, but this is going to be close.  Tilt D.

District 179:

Democrat:  Jason Dawkins (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 180:

Democrat:  Angel Cruz (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 181:

Democrat:  Malcolm Kenyatta
Republican:  Thomas Street

To give you an idea of how Democratic this open Philadelphia district is, 57 times as many Democrats voted in the primary as Republicans.  Strong D.

District 182:

Democrat:  Brian Sims (I)
Independent:  James McDevitt

This Philadelphia district is represented by Daryl Metcalfe target, queer PA icon, and consummate daddy, Brian Sims.  He's facing an outside challenge by also gay independent James McDevitt, who is running to the left of Sims(on some issues, not all), and also focusing on issues in the racial minority portions of the Philly queer community.  However, I couldn't find a campaign website for McDevitt, and only some rudimentary Facebook pages.  Either way this race goes, the winner would caucus with the Dems, and Sims will probably hold the seat.  Strong D.

District 183:

Democrat:  Jason Ruff
Republican:  Zachary Mako (I)

For District 183, we're headed back up to Lehigh County and Northampton County, and to an incumbent with a cool shark last name.  Mako won the seat in 2016 with 58% of the vote, but Jason Ruff only got 500 less primary votes than Mako, so it looks to be significantly tighter than 2016.  Still advantage Mako.  Lean R.

District 184:

Democrat:  Elizabeth Fiedler

Uncontested open Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 185:

Democrat:  Maria Donatucci (I)

Uncontested Delaware County and Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 186:

Democrat:  Jordan Harris (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 187:

Democrat:  Michael Blichar Jr
Republican:  Gary Day (I)

This Berks/Lehigh County district has a pretty Republican lean, and current challenger Blichar Jr got on the ballot after primary winner Archie Follweiler withdrew in June.  Likely R.

District 188:

Democrat:  James Roebuck Jr (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 189:

Democrat:  Adam Rodriguez
Republican:  Rosemary Brown (I)

In this Monroe/Pike County district, incumbent Rosemary Brown has built up comfortable 63%+ wins the past two elections, though if you look towards the beginning of her tenure in this seat, the margins drop by almost 10 points.  This should be a tougher year for her than usual, though she starts off as the favorite, due to both her tenure and a lackluster Democratic primary.  Lean R.

District 190:

Democrat:  Vanessa Lowery Brown (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 191:

Democrat:  Joanna McClinton (I)

Uncontested Delaware County/Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 192:

Democrat:  Morgan Cephas (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 193:

Democrat:  Matthew Nelson
Republican:  Torren Ecker

Heavily Republican open Adams/Cumberland County district.  Republicans regularly win 70%+ of the vote.  Strong R.

District 194:

Democrat:  Pamela DeLissio (I)
Republican:  Sean Stevens
Libertarian:  Matthew Baltsar

Montgomery County/Philadelphia district with a hefty Democratic advantage.  Toss in a Libertarian candidate, and DeLissio looks very safe.  Strong D.

Last batch of seats, starting with District 195: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300810.msg6407560#msg6407560

[ctherainbow]

Wolf and letterman should just relocate to bucks and Montgomery till election day

Eh, I'd keep Fetterman bouncing around SWPA for now, but Wolf should definitely be campaigning in the SEPA area.  Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Schuylkill counties are all going to be key in the statewide races as well as many US and state legislative races.  If Dems can't knock Fitzpatrick out of the 1st US Congressional District(Bucks), they're not gonna have a great night.

[ctherainbow]

Slightly off-topic here, but a 2020 analysis of PA's legislative elections could end up looking a lot different than this. I'd say there is a 80% chance that a lawsuit is brought in state court(s) against the legislative districts in 2019, leading to new districts ahead of the 2020 elections. Given the unhinged response of Republicans in the legislature over the Congressional redraw, it stands to reason that said groups are just waiting until the legislature no longer has the votes to unilaterally remove PASC justices. After all, it is one thing to go after the Republican House delegation, and another to effectively threaten the jobs of dozens of Republican state lawmakers (who have the power to impeach)

I could definitely see this being the case.  Which districts do you think are some of the worst, and should be redistricted?

[ctherainbow]

Eh, I'd keep Fetterman bouncing around SWPA for now, but Wolf should definitely be campaigning in the SEPA area.  Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Schuylkill counties are all going to be key in the statewide races as well as many US and state legislative races.  If Dems can't knock Fitzpatrick out of the 1st US Congressional District(Bucks), they're not gonna have a great night.

Winning the 1st isn't a must for the Dems to win the house.

I didn't say that.     I said that if they can't knock him out, they're not going to have a GREAT night, which I would classify as not just winning the House, but also having a good margin.  And Fitzpatrick is also the most vulnerable sitting Republican in the PA delegation(maybe tied with Rothfus), so if Dems are going to do well in Pennsylvania, he'll be the first to go.  

[ctherainbow]

I'm finally done with initial research/predictions!  Here are the last few seats:

District 195:

Democrat:  Donna Bullock (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 196:

Republican:  Sean Grove (I)

Uncontested York County district.  Strong R.

District 197:

Democrat:  Danilo Burgos

Uncontested open Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 198:

Democrat:  Rosita Youngblood (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 199:

Democrat:  Joseph McGinnis Jr
Republican:  Barbara Gleim
Libertarian:  Charles Boust

Open Cumberland County district that is heavily Republican.  Libertarian Boust could siphon votes, but likely won't change the outcome here.  Likely R.

District 200:

Democrat:  Christopher Rabb (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 201:

Democrat:  Stephen Kinsey (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 202:

Democrat:  Jared Solomon (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 203:

Democrat:  Isabella Fitzgerald (I)

Uncontested Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

Thanks so much for reading my rundown/analysis/predictions!    

[ctherainbow]

Great job!

Now start right away on updates.

[ctherainbow]

Some Senate candidate press updates:

Senate District 6:

Even though she wasn't charged, this is bad press for Democratic Senate hopeful Tina Davis, as her husband was charged with theft of housing assistance funds:

http://www.buckscountycouriertimes.com/news/20180911/husband-of-state-rep-tina-davis-charged-with-housing-assistance-theft

Not great for her, as she's in a competitive district, where any missteps could cost her the race.

Senate District 44:

Democratic candidate Katie Muth decides not to share the stage with accused fellow Democrat and State Senator Daylin Leach; Leach lashes out at her:

http://www2.philly.com/philly/columnists/clout/clout-daylin-leach-sexual-harassment-katie-muth-jewell-williams-20180907.html

Senate District 46:

Democrat James Craig being investigated for potential nomination petition signature fraud; he denies knowledge of fraud:

http://www.timesonline.com/news/20180908/beaver-county-da-investigates-state-senate-candidate-james-craigs-petitions-for-possible-forged-signatures

Recent news that I could find on State Senate races seems to be mostly bad for Democratic candidates, and Tina Davis and James Craig are two candidates who both have a chance to win the seats they're running for, so bad press like this could make the difference in November.