Thank G-d, now Australia will be with us in Iran. I believe the Iran war will be sort of a massive Kosovo, lots of bombing of military installation and no massive Iraq type ground invasion. There will be a one sided naval war and some special ops stuff. Just the kind of operation where Australian aide will be greatly appreciated. Timeframe: 2005-early 2007.
Without a very clear casus belli, I can't even see right-wing extreme hawks wanting to start a war with Iran in the next four years. Even an open declaration that they are going to build a bomb probably wouldn't be enough. Our military is over-extended and the idiots running the Pentagon think that the existing Reserves and Guard are enough to do the job. They probably are, assuming that nothing new comes up, but that's hardly a credible defense policy since if we aren't prepared for a new problem, what's the incentive for others to not provide one?
It would take something like a giant mushroom cloud over the rubble of what was Tel Aviv to get us into a war with Iran in the next four years and I don't see the current leadership in Iran as being that fanatical, even if they had the capability.
