LimoLiberal's Official State Legislative Special Elections Prediction Thread

[IceSpear]

Let's see how my predictions jived with the actual results:

Chart shows my predicted margin, the actual margin, and how far off my prediction was.

SD-32: D+89, D+87 - R+2
SD-37: D+15, D+15 - ND
AD-5: R+18, R+26 - R+8
AD-10: D+8, D+18 - D+10
AD-17: R+10, R+27 - R+17
AD-39: UNOPPOSED
AD-74: D+68, D+85 - D+17
AD-80: D+68, D+63 - R+5
AD-102: R+12, R+2 - D+10
AD-107: R+2, R+2 - ND
AD-142: R+2, R+4 - R+2

My predictions were off by an average of 7.1 points - which although large, is great for state legislative special elections which tend to be wildly unpredictable. Most impressive, I called each pickup for each party (AD-10 for Ds and AD-142 for Rs), and also predicted the strength of the third-party candidate in AD-102. Notable misses came in the AD-5 and AD-17, each Long Island seats where underfunded Democratic candidates underperformed Clinton-Trump numbers bigly. Of course, certain posters on this forum laughed at me when I mentioned the lack of funding and lack of facebook enthusiasm that each of these candidates had.

All in all, stellar predictions despite repeated accusations of concern-trolling.

You forgot this one:

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

The Democrat won by 50 points.

[IceSpear]

You got AZ-08 wrong by over 10, VA-Gov wrong by 10, AL-Senate wrong by over 10


Great job on getting your predictions wrong by 7

Actually he got Alabama wrong by 30 points, lol.

Bumping by prediction up to 60-33 Moore due to recent events including Jones' disastrous racist mailer, Jones' support for abortion, and the exposure of the forgery of the yearbook signature.

[IceSpear]

Recap of 5/1 Florida elections

HD-39: R+26, R+20, D+6
HD-144: R+2, D+4, D+6

I was off by an average 6 points in these two elections, though I notably predicted a Republican --> Democratic flip in HD-144 but was incorrect.

Will you ever overestimate a Democrat?