Canadian federal election - 2015

[King of Kensington]

Howard Hampton would be a great candidate for the NDP in Kenora, should he run.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-seeking-howard-hampton-s-return-to-politics-1.2940286

[King of Kensington]

Say it ain't so John!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/john-baird-to-resign-as-foreign-affairs-minister-sources-say-1.2940699

[King of Kensington]

Also tonight, the NDP will nominate former MuchMusic VJ Jennifer Hollett in University-Rosedale. She will take on Toronto Centre MP Chyrstia Freeland of the Liberals in that seat.

What percentage of the electorate is west of University/Avenue Rd. - 2/3 maybe?

NDP would have won it in 2011  - but there was a big surge in Trinity-Spadina for Jack and Olivia.

[King of Kensington]

I think the Tories have gotten pretty much everything they can get out of the Jewish vote - surely there are very few voters who yet haven't been convinced to switch due to Harper's Israel position if they haven't already.

Also, the Liberals have a very good candidate nominated in Mount Royal: Anthony Housefather, the popular mayor of CSL. 

[King of Kensington]

I doubt that very much...the Jewish population in Montreal is shrinking and on top of that younger Jews don't tend to stick around the tacky post-war suburban places where they grew up such as Cote St. Luc - if they stay in Montreal at all they move to ostentatious Mcmansions in Dollard or they move to trendy downtown core places. I'll bet that 10-15 years from now the percentage of voters in Mount Royal who are Jewish will have shrunk from 30% to 20% - if not even less. For all we know, an ugly tacky currently heavily Jewish area like Cote St. Luc could be mostly South Asian or North African a generation from now...

I've noticed this in Toronto as well.  It seems in Toronto the Jewish population in the Annex area is quite high and growing (at least 10% of the population), while in North York it seems to be mostly elderly, Russian and Orthodox Jews (Bathurst between Eglinton and Steeles also seems to be becoming much more Filipino).  In other words, Jews are moving south of St. Clair or out to York Region.

[King of Kensington]

If I were to take a stab at it:

The Jewish population in Westmount is probably demographically most similar to that of St. Paul's.

In Mount Royal, Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre.

In Dollard, Thornhill.

(No Toronto equivalent to Outremont).

[King of Kensington]

Does Bruce Hyer have any hopes of retaining his seat standing as a Green?

Not a chance - just about the worst type of riding for the Greens.  It will go Liberal or NDP. 

[King of Kensington]

I can't see any riding flipping from Liberal to Tory on Montreal Island with Trudeau Jr. leading the Liberals. 

[King of Kensington]

How is Robert Libman as a Tory candidate in Mount Royal?  Is he a star or kind of a has-been at this point?

[King of Kensington]

Wonder if there's any truth to this:

http://www.citynews.ca/2015/01/13/exclusive-liberals-in-talks-with-chief-blair-to-run-in-upcoming-federal-election/

Blair could run in Scarborough Southwest or Scarborough North.  They'll be hard enough for the NDP to defend even against a generic Liberal, but with Blair they're toast.  They wouldn't have Blair replace a retiring Liberal - he's too strong a candidate and they'll want him to knock enough an incumbent.  

Blair lives in Guildwood I think - but I'm pretty sure McKay is running again.

[King of Kensington]

Scarborough Southwest looks like the only Scarborough riding without a nominated Liberal candidate.

ETA: TDSB chair Shaun Chen is the Liberal candidate in Scarborough North.

[King of Kensington]

Good get, still respected, but Housefather wins easily.

Premature on my part.  Looks like the party wants TV journalist Pascale Déry to run in Mount Royal.

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/former-tva-journalist-pascale-dery-to-seek-conservative-nomination-in-mont-royal

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals have not yet nominated anyone to run againstg Joe Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence either

That's true.  Oliver is the only Tory in Toronto with a high profile, all the rest are complete nobodies.  He is very much defeatable, but he may be the equivalent of David Young in 2003 (the one Tory if any who was going to survive in an anti-Tory swing in Toronto).

Other possibilities are perhaps Josh Colle running federally, or a high profile Jewish community figure.  I think the Liberals will want to have a strong candidate in place to run against Oliver, which is perhaps why they haven't nominated a candidate yet.

Blair is probably a better fit for SSW - he grew up in Scarborough and still lives there.  And "law and order" is more of an issue in Scarborough than in Eg-Law.  But I can see why they'd want to use Blair to knock off a high-profile Cabinet minister too rather than "waste" using Blair against Dan Harris whose election was basically a fluke anyway.

ETA: Part of me wonders whether Oliver will shift over to Thornhill, but I see Peter Kent is running again.  It looks like the Tories will have three 70+ incumbents running in the GTA (Fantino is running too).

[King of Kensington]

I was mistaken when I said Blair could run in Scarborough Southwest or Scarborough North.  The Liberals already have TDSB chair Shaun Chen running there.  SSW is the only Scarborough seat without a Liberal candidate now.

[King of Kensington]

Seems like  a stupid move by the Liberals if that's the case.  She's not a "star candidate" and she has no ties whatsoever to Eglinton-Lawrence.  Are there no open ridings for her to run in Peel Region? 

[King of Kensington]

They'd be far smarter to bring back Joe Volpe than to run Eve Adams in Eglinton-Lawrence. 

Or run Bill Blair there.  Or Councillor Josh Colle.  Or Bernie Farber.  Or bring Bob Rae out of retirement and have him run against Oliver.  Or convince former Councillor (and card-carrying PC) Karen Stintz to join Team Trudeau. 

[King of Kensington]

I think the Liberals would want to run a Jewish candidate in Thornhill.

Peter Kent is slated to run again for the Tories.  But if he decides to call it quits, I wonder if the Tories would want to shift Joe Oliver to Thornhill.

[King of Kensington]

In an "open and fair" nomination I'd be really surprised if Eve Adams gets it. 

Eg-Law is probably the most important riding in Toronto for the Liberals to have a good candidate in place.  They'd be idiots to run her there. 

Parkdale-High Park, Davenport and Danforth are safe NDP even in a return to "normalcy" in Ontario.  All the other non-Liberal seats are pretty low hanging fruit.  Oliver is beatable, but he is more of a challenge than the others. 

[King of Kensington]

I wouldn't consider Danforth a "downtown" riding.  That's like saying Astoria, Queens is part of "downtown New York."

[King of Kensington]

Marco Mendicino sounds like a much better fit for Eglinton-Lawrence:

http://www.vote4marco.org/about-marco.html

[King of Kensington]

Eglinton-Lawrence MPP Mike Colle: "Over my dead body."

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/02/10/mike-collee-eve-adams-liberals-eglinton-lawrence_n_6655624.html

[King of Kensington]

Funny given that Flavio is a more "progressive" Liberal given that Joe Volpe was quite a reactionary Liberal who really pandered to right-wing constituents (as pro-Israel as Harper/Kenney/Baird, opposed Lawrence Heights redevelopment, came out in support of funding for religious schools etc.) 

Mendicino sounds like a good candidate for the Libs (at least on paper): North Toronto resident, lawyer, and lead prosecutor of the"Toronto 18."

[King of Kensington]

1917?

[King of Kensington]

PET approached Broadbent about forming a coalition with the NDP in 1980 - on the grounds that in spite of the Liberal majority, he wanted a more nationally representative government (as the Liberals had only won 2 seats in the West).  This was seriously considered by the leadership but the NDP ultimately turned the offer down because of opposition of Western MPs. 

[King of Kensington]

Goodbye Dan Harris!