Is Dallas County lost for the GOP?

[Indy Texas]

Dallas County is lost for the GOP, but that's not a big deal in and of itself. It doesn't do much good to shut a party out of a county when that county's population growth has been flat for the past decade or so and the counties surrounding it are exploding in population and are very favorable towards the GOP.

The Democrats are going to have to figure out a way to get more than 35% of the vote in the collar counties (Collin, Denton, Ellis, Rockwall, Johnson). Same story in other "sprawl counties" near Houston (Montgomery, Fort Bend, Brazoria) and Austin (Williamson).

It's started to perform all other big city counties do (Cook, Los Angeles, ect.) Unless there's some major political realignment where minorities and urban voters begin to support the Republican party, the GOP doesn't really have a chance there.

There will always be a residual GOP presence in Dallas that Chicago and Los Angeles do not have. There's a lot of money in Dallas and that money is all conservative. They don't have "Lakeshore Liberals" like the Windy City and there's not a large entertainment or legal services industry like Los Angeles to provide a base of rich liberals. When Rick Santorum started that Christian movie studio in Dallas, he said part of the reason for the location was that there were a lot of wealthy evangelicals who could provide the financial backing for his movies.

[Indy Texas]

The Democrats are going to have to figure out a way to get more than 35% of the vote in the collar counties (Collin, Denton, Ellis, Rockwall, Johnson). Same story in other "sprawl counties" near Houston (Montgomery, Fort Bend, Brazoria) and Austin (Williamson).

Fort Bend was reasonably close the past couple of elections, and could conceivably flip in the near future. Williamson and Denton should be prime targets for the next 20 years, too. Hays County, too (Since it contains the college city of San Marcos).

Fort Bend owed its closeness to Missouri City, a heavily black suburb. Sugar Land is the larger city in Fort Bend and it is much whiter, faster growing and more conservative. It also has a large and growing Asian population which the Democrats would do well to go after.

Williamson County is almost as right-wing as Travis County is left-wing. The City of Denton did pass a fracking ban, but that was more a classic case of NIMBY-ism than any sign of liberalism. San Marcos has Texas State University - all those kids are from in-state anyway so if they're registered to vote it's in their home county. And by and large it's a mediocre party school for apathetic stoner types and right-wing fratboys who couldn't get into UT or TAMU.

[Indy Texas]

Irving - Obama 50.6% - McCain 49.4%
Garland - Obama 46.8% - McCain 53.2%
Mesquite - Obama 50.2% - McCain 49.8%
Grand Prairie - Obama 52.1% - McCain 47.9%

I haven't looked at the precinct data for other races but I'd wager that most Democratic gains have come in the inner suburbs like Irving, Mesquite and Grand Prairie.

Thanks!  I'm shocked that they are all so close, although that election was a high water mark for Democrats.

Those were the early go-to bedroom communities for middle class whites in Dallas. Over the years, the housing stock got older, those families' kids grew up and bought houses further out in the collar counties and the original owners sold to a "browner" generation.

State Rep. Linda Harper-Brown, an Anglo Republican from Irving hung on for dear life the past few cycles. She was defeated in her primary by a Tea Partier who considerably outperformed her, but my guess is that he will have far more difficult elections from 2016 onward.

Another canary in the coal mine was State Rep. Kirk England, another Anglo Republican from Grand Prairie who switched to the Democratic Party a few years ago, was easily reelected in '08 and then got booted out in 2010. I think the Democrats won back his seat in 2012 and then lost it again this year.

Basically, the inner suburbs between Dallas and Fort Worth are one of the few parts of the state with seats that are reasonably contested by both parties.