Ontario 2018 election

[DC Al Fine]

Things are getting interesting with a brand new poll by Forum all conducted Wednesday night

PCs 40%
NDP 33%
OLP 22%

So how long do you think it will be until the Tories pivot to a "stop the socialist hordes" campaign?

[DC Al Fine]

Why is the Green Party on the Economic left there?  They are much further right than either Liberals or NDP on that front, with wanting to privatize weed sales and all

Not wanting a government monopoly on weed does not make a party right wing. In fact, getting out of the business of selling weed frees up a lot of money for the government to spend on social programs.

Are you claiming the government can't make a profit with having a monopoly selling weed? 

I realize you're likely arguing that the government would make more money taxing it than being in the retail business itself, but, at least in British Columbia, the government seems to have done a good job with liquor stores (beer and wine can now be sold privately, separate from bars and restaurants of course.)

I only know so much about this because I don't drink alcohol, but the government run stores seem to get a fair deal of praise.

The government can make a profit selling weed, but I think if they weren't in the business, they'd make more money off of the taxes, and they wouldn't have to spend money running the Cannabis Control Board (or whatever they're going to call it).

Perhaps this is 'unsocialist' of me (I do have a bit of a libertarian streak), but I don't think the government should be running unessential businesses. Especially when it comes to vices, I think it's very puritanical.

Plus a certain % of people will abuse gambling, liquor etc. Having the government profit off it and having an incentive to ignore the problem gives me the creeps.

[DC Al Fine]

Much too late now. Only thing to do is try and avoid total disaster so they have a decent base to start the rebuilding process.

[DC Al Fine]

Late to vote compass game:

https://votecompass.cbc.ca/ontario/results/?s=b2107cffd027a7b8a916bf35f4a9b842af47ea441526034705

I'm obviously closest to the Tories, but my result came up as slightly more socially progressive than the Tories which is a bit odd. This is presumably because I believe the government to do "much more" to accommodate religious minorities, which is "more progressive" than the NDP stance! I'm also slightly to the left of the Tories fiscally but that isn't really surprising.

[DC Al Fine]

Both Wynne and Horwath say it's too early to talk about a coalition, but neither rule it out

Unfortunately I'm sure nobody is happier to hear this than Doug Ford.

Yeah, this is the first "wow that's dumb of them" story of the campaign that hasn't come from Ford's camp. The spectre of of Wynne clinging to power is a boon for the Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

What could happen is that the Liberals help Horwath form a minority government, but since a Horwath is popular, what’s not to like about that.

It associates clean, popular Horwath with toxic Wynne and motivates the Tory base. Of course I'd be surprised if Wynne is leader a week after election day, but the insinuations will still be made.

[DC Al Fine]

Woohoo, New Ipsos poll shows a further acceleration of the NDP hovering up the progressive vote and emerging as the main opposition to Ford

PCs 40% (unchanged)
NDP 35% (up 6)
Liberals 22% (down 4)
Greens 3% (down. 2)

Needless to say this points to a total Liberal annihilation

But also to the Tories staying put.  That is, there's not yet any real evidence of "soft" Ford populists joining the Andrea bandwagon instead...

Hmm, wonder if we get a May/Corbyn style result. That would make for an interesting map.

[DC Al Fine]

It would be nice if the Liberals hold their vote in the north Toronto ridings that John Tory dominated municipally and Doug Ford bombed in.  But I don't even know if that can happen at this point given anti-Liberal sentiment at this point.

Federal 2011 result in Ontario was about 45-25-25 and Willowdale/Don Valley East/North/West were all pretty tight. Right now the Tory Liberal margin is slightly narrower than that and I imagine Ford will underperform Harper there. If the Liberals can stop the decline in the low 20's I think they'll be ok.

[DC Al Fine]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

We'll see if there is an 'anybody but the NDP' counterswing, but at this point it looks like the Liberals have nearly reached rock bottom.

Agreed. As much as the election nerd in me would like to see an historic result, we're still three weeks out from election day. There's plenty of time for the Liberal and Tory campaigns to adjust.

[DC Al Fine]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

Definitely possible although the PC numbers will need to fall a bit for that to happen but not impossible especially if undecided voters overwhelmingly break NDP.  Nonetheless I tend to think if NDP wins, that will only happen if Liberals completely implode meaning fewer than 5 Liberal seats and thus a majority for one of the parties.

It would be very weird to see a BC/Prairie style result in Ontario.

[DC Al Fine]

Tbh I think the NDP will end up winning. Something like 40% NDP, 37% PC, 18% Liberal.

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

I will be boring and predict a not especially large Tory majority. The NDP will be the official opposition but they won't beat the Liberals by a ton in the popular vote.

[DC Al Fine]

What's the deal with Wynne using change as a theme in her ads? Seems like a dumb idea for government seeking a fifth term.

[DC Al Fine]

Might as well ask: has anyone here crunched the popular vote numbers for the City of Toronto in 2014?

Grenier had 49.0-23.0-22.4-3.9-1.7

[DC Al Fine]

Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

[DC Al Fine]

It is really hard to wrap one's brain around what an NDP majority map would look like. It would involve winning some seats that would seem like huge surprises. This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

Well yeah, once you get a decent size lead it doesn't really matter, you'll get your path to victory... but the NDP doesn't have the lead yet, so we'll have to guess about paths to victory until they do.

I think it will have to entail the Liberal vote tanking a bit more (5-10%) as well as the Tory vote tanking in more populist ridings.

This is where I get stuck when plotting out an NDP win. If the Tories own the populist vote compared to 1990, then the NDP need to make up the votes with well off voters in places like St. Paul's, Don Valley and Burlington. I'm not quite sold on that being a serious possibility.

It also might be the Liberals saving grace as they try to hold onto a decent sized caucus. Voters who hate Ford but are afraid of an NDP government might hold their nose for Wynne. Obviously there's been a trend towards the progressive coalition getting more educated and wealthy and the conservative coalition downscaling, but I don't think it's that pronounced yet.

I agree with you: if the NDP are going to win, it will have to involve Ford messing up with populists.

[DC Al Fine]

Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

At least publicly they are. I suspect deep down they all know they are done.

Well I doubt any major party would ever concede an election publicly or admit their not going to win before polls close. Conceding before hand would risk suppressing your parties turnout making the result for your party worse then it could potentially end up being.

Exactly. I'm not asking if Wynne is conceding the race. I'm talking about the practicalities of the campaign. Is she spending all of her time in Ottawa and Guelph and central Toronto or is she still doing lots of events in lost causes like Milton and Cambridge? That sort of thing.

[DC Al Fine]

If the NDP is leading "Southwest" would they pick up any non London/KWC/Brant seats?

[DC Al Fine]

Holy macaroni! New Abacus poll says it’s now a virtual dead heat PCs 35%, NDP 34%, Liberals 24%

The last Abacus poll was pre-NDP surge and also had the Tories low and NDP high. The results are unusual but the movement isn't.

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

Wynne has been pretty loudly left in her rhetoric lately. It kind of makes sense I guess... Or perhaps that's why the NDP result is so high.

[DC Al Fine]

The PC already hold every single seat in the south west that is outside of Windsor, London and KW so if there vite is up by ten points there it means they just waste votes winning seats they already have by bigger margins

Yeah, it looks like all those seats the NDP came semi close in like Chatham and Sarnia are safe from the surge...but otherwise it's not doing them any good. Maybe Cambridge or Brant are in play but that's about it.

Am I right in thinking pretty much all the cities in Ontario Taht aren't Toronto or Ottawa (or Guelph) are basically post-industrial and fairly poor? Windsor, Oshawa, London, Niagara, Hamilton, Barrie etc. This could be totally wrong, I'm just trying to test my assumptions.

Kitchener-Waterloo is a pretty big tech hub I think

[DC Al Fine]

In the case of Barrie, it is without question the most conservative city with over 100,000 people.  That can easily be explained as it lacks the type of things that would make other cities progressive.

1.  Weak union movement
2.  No university or college
3.  Very white

Barrie is also basically a giant exurb of Toronto, so that makes it fairly conservative too. I wouldn't agree it's the most conservative 100K+ city in Ontario though. Surely that distinction belongs to Whitby or Milton or Cambridge?

I was going to say Thornhill but apparently it's just part of Vaughan and Markham. The more you know.

If we're going by election results, I'd say it's a toss up between Whitby and Milton.

[DC Al Fine]

The second big debate is coming up. Has there been any stink from the Greens and/or Libertarians about running full/near full slates and not being invited?

[DC Al Fine]

LOL at the NDP winning Pickering-Uxbridge and Erin Mills while the PCs win St. Paul's!

And the Liberals somehow holding a seat in Vaughan

[DC Al Fine]

Ipsos has the NDP leading the Tories 37-36.

[DC Al Fine]

I did a brief review of other elections where there was an NDP surge (NS-09, Fed-11, AB-15). There are two common threads with the polls:

1) There weren't any major setbacks in the polls. Surges either ran up to election day or plateaued.

2) The NDP underperformed the last polls before the election by a decent amount.

Based on the above I suggest that the Tories would win if the election was held today but that the NDP will likely continue surging and that the NDP will likely win. Ford and Wynne need to put the brakes on NDP momentum right now...

Horwath is against beer in grocery stores isn't she? Maybe they could try that

[DC Al Fine]

New Pollara poll:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-poll-only-the-ndp-is-gaining-support/

NDP - 38%
PC - 37%
Lib - 18%


NDP leading in Halton/Peel.

Men: PC 41, NDP 34, Lib 18
Women: NDP 43, PC 32, Lib 19

Horwath +29
Ford -17
Wynne -42

This spread may look like progress for NDP (and it certainly is, from where they started), but the overall numbers still heavily favor Ford and PCs.  If the Liberal vote collapses (and it seems headed that way), PCs will have a cakewalk of picking up Liberal seats in Toronto and Eastern Ontario.  They may lose a few more in the SW and Niagara to the NDP, but the overall sum will be a net gain for them, probably enough for a majority.

As long as the NDP-PC < 4-5%, with a Liberal collapse, we are looking at a PC government. 

I'm not that sure. NDP isn't getting to 38% without significant unexpected swings. I would also argue than the PC vote isn't efficient either, I expect very larges majorities in rural seats they currently hold.
In general, if you have a 2 or 3% lead, the reality will give you a lead in seats.

Agreed. The NDP vote is usually much more concentrated than the other parties, but I don't think that's the case when they're contending for government.