Ontario 2018 election

[DC Al Fine]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

beautiful

Glorious. Now let us pray the Tory/NDP prayer:

Screw the Liberals forever and ever Amen

[DC Al Fine]

That centre line reminds me of Political Compass

[DC Al Fine]

That centre line reminds me of Political Compass

Well, it was from Vote Compass.

Definitely a lot of issues with this ranking, I think.  I really don't think Carleton - a riding that nearly went Liberal in 2015 - is the most right wing in Ontario.

Is it just based off their responses? Tons of issues with that. Non representative samples, weird formulas for defining left/right etc.

[DC Al Fine]

Doug Ford got my vote. Rae days, affirmative action, and Sunday shopping. The ghost of the NDP still haunts this great province.... The man has his faults, but he got the interest of working Ontarians in mind.

Sunday shopping?

[DC Al Fine]

If there's a polling error in which direction do you think it'll be?

Looking at Canada 2011, and Alberta 2015, I would guess the Liberals would increase and the NDP would decrease.

[DC Al Fine]

Good grief. Glad my family drama is way less crazy than that.

[DC Al Fine]

Well yeah.  It's obviously a very progressive minded riding that has about 20% of the electorate that flips between the Liberals and the NDP.  It was stunning to see Dewar lose too, but not surprising really when one is wearing their "sober political analysis" hat, given the dynamics of the riding and what happened in the federal race.

I was on the fence for a while about the riding in 2015. Had I trusted our numbers more, I would've predicted a Liberal win, but instead I relied too much on a uniform swing prediction in the riding and predicted Dewar would win and got burned. Same thing happened for St. John's East, too.  I did predict the Liberals would win Dartmouth and Halifax which got a lot of push-back, but ultimately I proved to be correct.

Anyway, our numbers show the NDP should win Ottawa Centre, so I'm comfortable with making that call this time.

I can understand push back on Halifax, but Dartmouth?! The NDP won it by 2% in 2011 and the Liberals were running a city councilor in 2015. That's a ridiculously easy pick up

[DC Al Fine]

Caveats about predicting the future notwithstanding, I really think people are overestimating the impact of a single election on a political party, especially one like the OLP. Even a disastrous showing (1-5 seats) would leave them with enough presence in the legislature to organize. Beyond that, and more importantly, the OLP, like most well-entrenched parties, is much more than its elected representatives. The money, institutional memory, expertise, and informal networks that animate it now will still be available to it after the election.

On a broader point, if you look at the ways political parties have died before it's been through a combination of prolonged atrophy and a major issue that split the party (or that it ended up on the wrong side of). The US Whigs, the British Liberals, the SoCreds, the Union Nationale, the pre-merger PCs - they all suffered multiple terms out of office and generational shifts on major issues before they were extinguished (and even then, you can argue a lot of them are still around in some form or another).

yeah but what if they get 0 seats? did ever happend that rulling party lose all seats? at least greens pick one district and go for it.

New Brunswick Tories in 1987. They still managed to get back into power by 1999

[DC Al Fine]

Which website has the best results map? I'm not that impressed with CBC's.

[DC Al Fine]

Which website has the best results map? I'm not that impressed with CBC's.

I've found these two:

https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario_election.html

http://windsorstar.com/tag/2018-Ontario-Election

Which website has the best results map? I'm not that impressed with CBC's.

This one is best imo

https://globalnews.ca/news/4257183/ontario-election-results-2018/

Thank you

[DC Al Fine]

I will confess, a big part of my interest in this race is because of my own personal quest for bragging rights. My best friends at college lives in Mississauga, and I stayed at his house for Canada 150 last year, and we went into Toronto, got well and smashed, and then I started spouting off in the streets about how “Horwath will be Premier!” And when Doug Ford won the PC leadership, I suggested to him there could be room for the NDP to sneak up the middle between an unpopular Ford and hated Wynne, and he immediately shut me down, saying there was absolutely 0 chance, then when I tried to explain my rationale, he got mad at me for “acting like I knew [his] province better than [him].” So if the NDP does pull it off tonight, in addition to seeing a victory for a party very close to my own ideology, I’ll get to gloat too

Btw, the last batch of polls has seemed like a herding... very well may be wishful thinking, but I’m not buying the sudden last-minute PC swings, especially when other polls had the NDP on the rise in the last few days and Abacus’ last poll had the NDP up 4. Between that, Kenatagate, and what I suspect will be the deathbed conversion of many would-be Liberal voters to the NDP to stop Ford, I’m still predicting a narrow NDP win, but it’s gonna be a long night and it may be a few days before things shake out fully.

You need to do something more wholesome when drunk... Like calling you ex.