Setting aside usual and simplistic complaints about "Party ID", most everything about this poll tilts in favor of the GOP. No one element is necessarily off by much and/or unusual in the context of early-cycle GOP polling, but it's "death by a thousand cuts" type stuff in terms of accuracy:
- Gender is substantially off (51/49 here; 55/45 in 2016 & 2018)
- Age is a bit off (among 65 and ups in particular)
- White % is a bit off
- Black support is artificially low (common in early polls, but hides underlying D floor)
Combined, that is offsetting the margin by 4-6 points depending on the exact candidate matchup. Something like:
Trump 50, Biden 47
Trump 50, Sanders 46
Trump 50, Buttigieg 46
Trump 51, Warren 43
