PA Gubernatorial Race 2006 (user search)
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Author Topic: PA Gubernatorial Race 2006  (Read 94240 times)
Jake
dubya2004
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« on: February 17, 2005, 04:12:05 PM »
I was about to post this.  Nice work Phil.

Looks like any GOP candidate looks to have a shot.  Only 50 percent at this stage of the game is bad news.
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2005, 04:19:10 PM »
Quote from: Senator Supersoulty on March 13, 2005, 04:07:05 PM

Why is it that during the Presidential Race we gave all the undecideds to Kerry, the challenger, but in the governor's race we give all the undecideds to Rendell.

Explain please.

Duh, they're Democrats. Democrats are unbeatable in Pennsylvania Tongue
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2005, 04:32:15 PM »

As moderate as Kerry is
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2005, 04:57:38 PM »
Quote from: Max Power on March 14, 2005, 04:56:41 PM
Rendell's wrapped it up. If Toomey runs, Rendell will win in a landslide. If Hart runs, what governor race.

Chuckie P for Senate LOL
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2005, 05:24:20 PM »
Quote from: Max Power on March 14, 2005, 05:07:53 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 14, 2005, 05:04:13 PM
Quote from: Max Power on March 14, 2005, 05:03:16 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 14, 2005, 04:59:45 PM
Quote from: Max Power on March 14, 2005, 04:56:41 PM
Rendell's wrapped it up. If Toomey runs, Rendell will win in a landslide. If Hart runs, what governor race.

Are you kidding? If Toomey were to run (which he won't), he could win.
Riiiiiiiiiighhttt.....

You do realize that Toomey would take the Lehigh Valley (an area Rendell won in 2002) and would run strong out west, right?
He'd do awful in Pittsburgh. His extremist right-wing views are out of touch with the people I know. He could win Greene County, though.

any Republican would do bad in the city.
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Jake
dubya2004
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*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2005, 05:44:20 PM »
Quote from: Max Power on March 14, 2005, 05:38:37 PM
Quote from: Jake on March 14, 2005, 05:24:20 PM
Quote from: Max Power on March 14, 2005, 05:07:53 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 14, 2005, 05:04:13 PM
Quote from: Max Power on March 14, 2005, 05:03:16 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 14, 2005, 04:59:45 PM
Quote from: Max Power on March 14, 2005, 04:56:41 PM
Rendell's wrapped it up. If Toomey runs, Rendell will win in a landslide. If Hart runs, what governor race.

Are you kidding? If Toomey were to run (which he won't), he could win.
Riiiiiiiiiighhttt.....

You do realize that Toomey would take the Lehigh Valley (an area Rendell won in 2002) and would run strong out west, right?
He'd do awful in Pittsburgh. His extremist right-wing views are out of touch with the people I know. He could win Greene County, though.

any Republican would do bad in the city.
Even..............O.J. SIMPSON?!?!?

what?
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2005, 03:27:21 PM »
Hmm, looks like Scranton has the early lead, Swann better get out there and start raising money.
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2005, 08:18:35 PM »
Quote from: danwxman on March 22, 2005, 08:08:17 PM
So, Rendell now has the highest favorable ratings of any statewide politician. One less thing Phil can claim about Santorum.

Um, that's been the case for about a month now.  Rendell had 54% and Santorum had 53%. 
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Jake
dubya2004
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*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2005, 08:22:15 PM »
Quote from: danwxman on March 22, 2005, 08:19:40 PM
Quote from: Jake on March 22, 2005, 08:18:35 PM
Quote from: danwxman on March 22, 2005, 08:08:17 PM
So, Rendell now has the highest favorable ratings of any statewide politician. One less thing Phil can claim about Santorum.

Um, that's been the case for about a month now.  Rendell had 54% and Santorum had 53%. 

Oh, did you make Phil aware of that?

Yeah, he made me aware of it
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2005, 01:34:47 PM »
Quote from: nickshepDEM on March 24, 2005, 01:34:11 PM
Why doesnt Toomey make a run for governor?  Right now hes just collection dust on the sidelines.

I think he's running the Club for Growth and biding his time until 2010.
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2005, 04:56:46 PM »
Politics PA reports that there is a movement to recruit Montco District Attorney Bruce Castor for Governor. Comments?
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2005, 05:07:21 PM »
Smiley
I'd rather Swann run and lose, and pick a good candidate to win in 2010.  To bad Corbett will be to old in 2010.
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2005, 05:24:12 PM »
Allyson Schwartz-Senate
Pat Toomey-Governor
Bob Casey-Governor, might actually break the trend
Melissa Hart-House again
T.J. Rooney-Senate
Todd Platts-House again

I could see Castor running for Governor here.
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2005, 02:23:48 PM »
What was it we were talking about Phil ?  A Castor/Swann ticket ?
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2005, 01:24:59 PM »
The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2005, 09:49:29 PM »
Nice to see Rendell getting dragged around over Act 72. 
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2005, 11:21:36 AM »
Quote from: J. J. on June 08, 2005, 11:39:09 PM
Quote from: Jake on June 08, 2005, 09:49:29 PM
Nice to see Rendell getting dragged around over Act 72. 

I wouldn't be too thrilled; Casey proposed a comprehesive tax reform program, to approved with a constitutional amendment.  In the Spring of 1989, it was defeated two to one.  In the Fall of 1990, Casey was relected by a margin of two to one.

It's definitely temporary. I expect Rendell's numbers to jump back up by the next poll or two.
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Jake
dubya2004
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*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2005, 07:01:47 PM »
Quote from: nickshepDEM on June 09, 2005, 04:26:41 PM
Regardless of his re-elect and approval numbers I don't see him losing to any of the potential candidates.  None seem very impressive or strong.  There has got to be someone else.  Can Tom Ridge run again?

Former Governor Schweiker would beat Rendell if he ran, but he won't.
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2005, 02:26:16 PM »
Quote from: Winfield on July 13, 2005, 02:05:35 PM
Phil, isn't Scranton a household name in PA?

They have been a prominent PA family for generations, and William Scranton was Governor in the early 1960's.

I believe Ed Rendell will win re-election to a second term, but would the current Scranton be able to mount a reasonable campaign? 

Scranton could have a shot if he wasn't out there. I'm not sure whether Piccola or Scranton is the bigger joke.
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Jake
dubya2004
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*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2005, 12:23:40 PM »
Looks like Rendell's polling like Santorum only without a really good opponent. Scranton's numbers must be solely on name recognition if he's up to 37. Looks as if Swann is the best candidate unless someone bigger, Castor or Toomey!!!!, jumps into the race.
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Jake
dubya2004
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*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2005, 01:06:27 PM »
No, it's all over. If the election was in August, Rendell could lose on property tax reform/Act 72, but since it isn't for another 16 months, it won't hurt him as bad.

BTW, does anyone have either a map of districts that approved Act 72 or a list of those that did?
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2005, 01:35:51 PM »
This is the best I could find. It includes 12 districts that eventually opted out. Red is yes, yellow no.



Main concentrations are the Northeast, most likely because of the slots at the race track, plus suburban Pittsburgh. The Pittsburgh School District did not approve Act 72 and barely any in the Southeast did either.
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Jake
dubya2004
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*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2005, 04:44:27 PM »
Quote from: danwxman on July 14, 2005, 04:32:33 PM
As Jake said, the property tax issue and the failure of Act 72 will fade from voter's radar screens by the time the election comes around.

Um, no. I said now it would be enough to make him lose, by next year it won't hurt him as bad, but will still be seen as a big failure.
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2005, 12:18:58 AM »
Arggggghhhhhh

I just remembered. The Wyoming County Republicans just had our summer picnic. I was away on Saturday, but I got a call today from a guy who was their. It was all about the three S's for us. Santorum, Sherwood, and Scranton. The County Chair actually got up and said Scranton would be a better candidate due to his experience. Experience with what, losing? I hate my county party.
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Jake
dubya2004
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*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2005, 02:02:00 AM »
If they nominate Scranton, Santorum will just receive the few extra hours that Swann/Castor would've gotten. No way am I going to campaign at all for Scranton.
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