Rasmussen is notoriously bad at Colorado polling. Like, really bad. Still, it wouldn't be too terribly surprising if Hick does worse than Udall. Udall has waged a much more aggressive campaign, pummeling Gardner on abortion (the same strategy that allowed Bennet to beat Buck in the GOP wave of 2010). It doesn't look like Hickenlooper has been aggressive at all and he did bungle the death penalty issue.
Pretty much. I wouldn't say it was all not his fault. I would say he opened himself up to being swiftboated. I would say that Gardner has been successfully swiftboated.