Canadian Election Results Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Meanwhile the NDP is at 53% in Quebec: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201106/23/01-4411867-le-npd-encore-plus-populaire-quaux-elections.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_vous_suggere_4411829_article_POS2

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is already back at near normal levels in Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks, mate!

[Hatman 🍁]

Blog post about your recent map created

[Hatman 🍁]

Random-Burin-St. George's is wrong too. *sigh*

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, there's quite a few errors. Will have to take a look at this one more closely.

[Hatman 🍁]

My apologies! I'll check over my spreadsheets. I had found a couple of errors previously, which I corrected, but obviously a fair number have slipped past me. Let me know any that you spot and I'll start fixing them up.

Ive already fixed them. If I recall, they were also South Shore, Thunder Bay SN, and Victoria. But I may have forgotten some of the errors.

[Hatman 🍁]

I caught St. John's too...

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP map will be easy to explain (unpopular prov. govts, gun registry). The Liberal map will not be so easy.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP map will be easy to explain (unpopular prov. govts, gun registry). The Liberal map will not be so easy.

Are there any unpopular provincial NDP governments? According to the latest polls - the Nova Scotia NDP is way ahead of the opposition and is polling about 10% above what the federal party had in NS and the latest Manitoba poll has the NDP at 44% (tied with the Tories) and about 18% higher than the popular vote that the federal NDP had in Manitoba.

I've seen people float this theory before - and it might make sense if these provincial governments showed signs of being unpopular in the first place....

The Manitoba NDP have become much more popular since the election (floods and the Jets).  And Dexter had had to deal with cancelling the Yarmouth ferry. Dexter is (unfortunately) still one of the least popular premiers in the country.

Of course that unpopularity in both provinces appears to be concentrated in specific areas. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly, a new poll has a tie between the PCs and the NDP in Manitoba

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly, a new poll has a tie between the PCs and the NDP in Manitoba

Quite a fightback there.

It's all about the Jets, baby. Quite a renewed optimism in the province.

[Hatman 🍁]

Blog post with the NDP change has been posted.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've attempted to decipher the Liberal change map in my latest blog post.

(sorry to promote it so much, but I do see the blog as an off shoot of this forum )

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec is quite European, actually in their democracy. OK, they use FPTP, but... look at their election signs. Totally different than the rest of Canada. It's all about the leader. There was probably more outrage about Ruth Ellen Brosseau in the rest of Canada than in Quebec. In fact, she's quite popular in  her riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec is quite European, actually in their democracy. OK, they use FPTP, but... look at their election signs. Totally different than the rest of Canada. It's all about the leader. There was probably more outrage about Ruth Ellen Brosseau in the rest of Canada than in Quebec. In fact, she's quite popular in  her riding.

No insult to the people of my native region of Lanaudiere, but the people there are often quite shallow. They fall in love with shallow people so easily, especially if they're hot and cute.

I guess so. But, she's been surprisingly good since the party let her out of hiding.

[Hatman 🍁]

One can easily create an NDP seat out of that. I wonder what the ethnic breakdown is between Malton/Gore and Bramalea. I guess Bramalea is older, and more white, but I thought Malton was too? I will have to do my research...

[Hatman 🍁]

Mileslunn was doing something like that last election. He'll probably do it again.

Shouldn't the math be easy, since the results are in an excel file?

[Hatman 🍁]

Now that I am back from My European trip, I can also help out on any requests.

My request: everything. Well, basically municipalities. I'd also like to see Ottawa broken down by ward (and perhaps other cities).

[Hatman 🍁]

New Nanos Poll

Cons: 36
Lib: 27
NDP: 27

[Hatman 🍁]

New Nanos Poll

Cons: 36
Lib: 27
NDP: 27

The Liberals have been ahead of the NDP in every election and every poll for the past 50 years.

No, this is incorrect. The NDP was #1 in the polls briefly in 1987: http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/parties_leaders/clips/10676/

But, I'm sure you knew that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Angus Reid:

Tories: 39
NDP: 31
Libs: 19
BQ: 6
Grn: 4

Vastly different from Nanos

[Hatman 🍁]

Harris Decima

Cons: 37
NDP: 29
Libs: 20
Grns: 7
BQ: 5

[Hatman 🍁]

So Angus Reid and Harris Decima seem to agree. Perhaps the Liberal figure in Nanos is a typo? The other figures seem to fit reasonably, but perhaps the Liberal figure should read 17, not 27?

Nope, it's no typo.

[Hatman 🍁]

Harris Decima

Cons: 37
NDP: 29
Libs: 20
Grns: 7
BQ: 5

regional breakdown?

I don't know, here is the article: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/127474143.html

Apparently the Tories lead everywhere except "Quebec and the GTA"