CA-13, CO-07, NJ-03, NV-03 (RMG Research for US Term Limits)

[wbrocks67]

All from RMG Research, LV, for "US Term Limits", given the wording these seem to be an R-leaning group

CA-13 (7/26-8/2)
Gray (D) 37%
Duarte (R) 37%

CO-07 (7/24-7/30)
Pettersen (D) 44%
Aadland (R) 41%

NJ-03 (7/22-7/29)
Kim (D) 44%
Healey (R) 38%

NV-03 (7/23-7/29)
Becker (R) 44%
Lee (D) 41%

All from Stella, from 538

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CA13%20Toplines.pdf
https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CO07%20Toplines.pdf
https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NJ03%20Toplines.pdf
https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NV03%20Toplines.pdf

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Junk polls

[Gracile]

Don't post polls on this board without providing a linked source (I've added the polls into the OP).

[Minnesota Mike]

The fact that "some other candidate" is an option in CA-13 tells you all you need to know about their quality control.

[Gracile]

I'm looking at my Twitter feed and apparently this organization has released a whole glut of these polls - some from several months ago. It's a bit funny how a group devoted to term limits for politicians is one of the most prolific pollsters of House races (they were similarly one of the biggest non-internal pollsters of House races in the 2020 cycle).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That Kim is leading by 6 speaks volumes about how safe he is in this cycle.

[Pollster]

Who is the donor that cares so passionately about term limits that they are funding all of this polling both this cycle and the last one and how do I get them as a client?

[wbrocks67]

All of them end with

* If you knew that [Republican] signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge and supports term
limits, but [Democrat] opposes term limits, for whom would you vote?

[wbrocks67]

Here's more

IL-08 (7/23-7/31)
Krishnamoorthi (D) 45%
Dargis (R) 39%

MI-08 (7/28-8/4)
Kildee (D) 43%
Junge (R) 40%

IA-03 (7/29-8/5)
Nunn (R) 49%
Axne (D) 41%

CA-22 (7/30-8/5)
Salas (D) 39%
Valadao (R) 34%

TX-34 (7/23-8/1)
Gonazalez (D) 47%
Flores (R) 43%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Junk polls

[MT Treasurer]

I still think the polling industry is dead...

IA-03 (7/29-8/5)
Nunn (R) 49%
Axne (D) 41%

...-on sometimes.

[LabourJersey]

That Kim is leading by 6 speaks volumes about how safe he is in this cycle.

I wouldn't say he's safe exactly, but Healey isn't a super strong candidate and the district has gotten much better for Democrats. A 6 point lead seems accurate but more than I'd expect the actual result to be, if that makes sense

[Mr.Phips]

That Kim is leading by 6 speaks volumes about how safe he is in this cycle.

I wouldn't say he's safe exactly, but Healey isn't a super strong candidate and the district has gotten much better for Democrats. A 6 point lead seems accurate but more than I'd expect the actual result to be, if that makes sense

It’s a Biden + 14 district now.  I expect Kim to win by high single digits.

[Gracile]

Here are all the ones they have released so far (aside from the four in the OP):

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CA22%20Toplines.pdf - CA-22: Salas (D) +5

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IA03%20Toplines.pdf - IA-03: Nunn (R) +8

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20MI08%20Toplines.pdf - MI-08: Kildee (D) +3

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20TX34%20Toplines.pdf - TX-34: Gonzalez (D) +4

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IL08%20Toplines.pdf - IL-08: Krishnamoorthi (D) +6

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NJ07%20Toplines.pdf - NJ-07: Kean (R) +8

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20KS03%20Toplines.pdf - KS-03: Adkins (R) +1

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IL13%20Toplines.pdf - IL-13: Budzinski (D) +3

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CT05%20Toplines.pdf - CT-05: Hayes (D) +8

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20MN02%20Toplines.pdf - MN-02: Craig (D) +1

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CA09%20Toplines.pdf - CA-09: Tie

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20OR06%20Toplines.pdf - OR-06: Salinas (D) +3

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20PA17%20Toplines.pdf - PA-17: Tie

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NC01%20Toplines.pdf - NC-01: Davis (D) +6

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20OR04%20Toplines.pdf - OR-04: Hoyle (D) +1

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NC06%20Toplines.pdf -NC-13: Manning (D) +9

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IN01%20Toplines.pdf - IN-01: Mrvan (D) +7

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20OH13%20Toplines.pdf - OH-13: Gilbert (R) +9

https://www.termlimits.com/library/2022%20Nebraska-2%20Poll%20Executive%20Summary.pdf - NE-02: Bacon (R) +15

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here are all the ones they have released so far (aside from the four in the OP):

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CA22%20Toplines.pdf - CA-22: Salas (D) +5

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IA03%20Toplines.pdf - IA-03: Nunn (R) +8

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20MI08%20Toplines.pdf - MI-08: Kildee (D) +3

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20TX34%20Toplines.pdf - TX-34: Gonzalez (D) +4

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IL08%20Toplines.pdf - IL-08: Krishnamoorthi (D) +6

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NJ07%20Toplines.pdf - NJ-07: Kean (R) +8

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20KS03%20Toplines.pdf - KS-03: Adkins (R) +1

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IL13%20Toplines.pdf - IL-13: Budzinski (D) +3

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CT05%20Toplines.pdf - CT-05: Hayes (D) +8

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20MN02%20Toplines.pdf - MN-02: Craig (D) +1

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CA09%20Toplines.pdf - CA-09: Tie

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20OR06%20Toplines.pdf - OR-06: Salinas (D) +3

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20PA17%20Toplines.pdf - PA-17: Tie

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NC01%20Toplines.pdf - NC-01: Davis (D) +6

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20OR04%20Toplines.pdf - OR-04: Hoyle (D) +1

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NC06%20Toplines.pdf -NC-13: Manning (D) +9

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IN01%20Toplines.pdf - IN-01: Mrvan (D) +7

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20OH13%20Toplines.pdf - OH-13: Gilbert (R) +9

https://www.termlimits.com/library/2022%20Nebraska-2%20Poll%20Executive%20Summary.pdf - NE-02: Bacon (R) +15

Throw ‘em in the trash

[Unelectable Bystander]

Here are all the ones they have released so far (aside from the four in the OP):

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CA22%20Toplines.pdf - CA-22: Salas (D) +5

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IA03%20Toplines.pdf - IA-03: Nunn (R) +8

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20MI08%20Toplines.pdf - MI-08: Kildee (D) +3

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20TX34%20Toplines.pdf - TX-34: Gonzalez (D) +4

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IL08%20Toplines.pdf - IL-08: Krishnamoorthi (D) +6

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NJ07%20Toplines.pdf - NJ-07: Kean (R) +8

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20KS03%20Toplines.pdf - KS-03: Adkins (R) +1

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IL13%20Toplines.pdf - IL-13: Budzinski (D) +3

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CT05%20Toplines.pdf - CT-05: Hayes (D) +8

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20MN02%20Toplines.pdf - MN-02: Craig (D) +1

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20CA09%20Toplines.pdf - CA-09: Tie

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20OR06%20Toplines.pdf - OR-06: Salinas (D) +3

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20PA17%20Toplines.pdf - PA-17: Tie

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NC01%20Toplines.pdf - NC-01: Davis (D) +6

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20OR04%20Toplines.pdf - OR-04: Hoyle (D) +1

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20NC06%20Toplines.pdf -NC-13: Manning (D) +9

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20IN01%20Toplines.pdf - IN-01: Mrvan (D) +7

https://www.termlimits.com/library/USTL%20OH13%20Toplines.pdf - OH-13: Gilbert (R) +9

https://www.termlimits.com/library/2022%20Nebraska-2%20Poll%20Executive%20Summary.pdf - NE-02: Bacon (R) +15

Throw ‘em in the trash

These seem like just strange and highly variable polls more than hack polls. I don’t see how R’s come close to winning IL8 and dominate IA3 but then don’t carry TX34 and MI8 for example

Edit: Didn’t mean to quote there

[GALeftist]

These polls are all way too close to one another! These districts run the gamut from Safe D to Lean R but they're almost all within 10.

[Senator Incitatus]

Quite literally a lot going on here but none of these results seems openly ridiculous, besides Bacon +15. Agree that they're not all going to happen simultaneously, but are all within the realm of possibility at this point, unless I'm missing something. I guess that's one way to show you're not a junk pollster.