Saddam Verdict Could Be November Surprise

[NHPolitico]

Kerry's botched joke will have more impact than the Saddam verdict. And to clarify, I mean that this won't have any impact. No one disputes that Saddam was a murderous prick.

[NHPolitico]

I say no because:

-Everyone already knows Saddam will be found guilty anyway
-Americans don't care about Saddam anymore, but the mess Iraq is, and this brings attention back to it
-There's a good chance the Sunnis are going to riot like mad

Bush didn't breeze to victory in 2004 even though that election was only months before Saddam was captured in a spider hole. I think this event is substantially less significant to voters.

[NHPolitico]

Not that it could happen, but hypothetically, how would a "not guilty" verdit impact the races?

Now, that, however, would have a serious impact, IMO. A big negative for the GOP. The whole "was Iraq worth the blood and treasure" issue is already important in this election and Saddam getting the OJ or Michael Jackson treatment would pretty much answer the question for voters in the negative.  Bush and the GOP is afraid that the electorate will see the mission of bringing democracy as completely hopeless-- and this would push a lot of people into the completely hopeless camp. It would be like discovering that the new Iraqi government was doing the things that Saddam's regime did that caused us to attack them-- like building WMDs or something.  Voters would say, "what's the point?" It would make a lot more people view it as a sad debacle. It would make voters angry like the OJ trial made (white) people angry.

It would really be sort of a tipping point kind of event moreso than one that is of great importance on its own, because it wouldn't have a lot of significance on its own without the other failures.

[NHPolitico]

Bush didn't breeze to victory in 2004 even though that election was only months before Saddam was captured in a spider hole.

Months *before*?  Wasn't Saddam captured in December 2003?

Saddam was caught Dec. 13th, 2003. I remember the day and what I was doing.

I had only recalled it being a Sunday morning and being less than a year away from the 2004 elections.