NV SEN InsiderAdvantage(R) Laxalt+3 (user search)
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  NV SEN InsiderAdvantage(R) Laxalt+3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NV SEN InsiderAdvantage(R) Laxalt+3  (Read 1408 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: September 23, 2022, 08:26:57 AM »

.... are people ignoring that this is an R internal? and not only that - but somehow Laxalt is only up 3 while winning Indies by 30%+?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2022, 08:34:22 AM »

Look at September 2016 and October 2018 on RCP. Everyone needs to chill. CCM could win this by 4 for all we know.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also pretty sure CCM will win a higher % of blacks than whites %....just my humble opinion.

So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

To be fair, it hasn't been the most high quality group of pollsters so I'd like to wait to get more. 2020 was the anomaly with NV polling, so I would not be surprised if we reverted back to the polling being iffy there.

Honestly, the biggest n= in this poll has Masto and Laxalt nearly tied among Whites. If that's the case, then Masto is doing pretty great lol
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wbrocks67
Atlas Star
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Posts: 22,730


« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2022, 08:43:50 AM »


So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

There was no polling error in Masto's 2016 race, please stop repeating this false talking point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada#Polling_2

No need for you to get angry with me. I was questioning Devils30's argument about this particular race. The argument which he and some others are making is that there were polling errors in previous cycles in Nevada, and that these errors are going to repeat themselves again this year.

Look at September 2016 and October 2018 on RCP. Everyone needs to chill. CCM could win this by 4 for all we know.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also pretty sure CCM will win a higher % of blacks than whites %....just my humble opinion.

So Masto is leading right now? Should we assume that all four of the recent polls in Nevada are wrong and that she's actually ahead by a few percentage points? The polling errors of 2016 and 2018 are repeating themselves, if this is is the case.

To be fair, it hasn't been the most high quality group of pollsters so I'd like to wait to get more. 2020 was the anomaly with NV polling, so I would not be surprised if we reverted back to the polling being iffy there.

Honestly, the biggest n= in this poll has Masto and Laxalt nearly tied among Whites. If that's the case, then Masto is doing pretty great lol

Which pollsters would that be? CNN/SRC? NYT/Siena? CBS/YouGov? Regardless of that, Laxalt has led in several of the polls that have been realized up to this point, whereas Oz and Masters have not led in a single poll. If Laxalt, as you say, isn't able to pull it off, then that would imply Democrats will retain the Senate and expand their majority by one or possibly two seats. And if that happened, it would be an embarrassing outcome for Republicans.

Sure, I'd just like to see more of the regular outlets. Right now we're looking at Traf, D4P, and IA (R) which aren't the best.

Would really like to get another Suffolk to see if anything has changed since their last poll, or even another Fabrizio/Impact.
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