NV SEN InsiderAdvantage(R) Laxalt+3

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I doubt I'll move this to Lean R given the history of polling misses in Nevada, but it's certainly not looking good.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The thing that should really worry Democrats here is how consistently low Cortez Masto's raw percentage has been compared to that of Kelly, Fetterman, and Warnock, all of whom have been hovering around/close to 50% in the polling average.

It’s nothing different than every Nevada race. The Rs always poll well, see the Heller +7 gems in 2018.

Deliberately misleading-

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heck_vs_cortez_masto-5982.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_biden-6867.html

Agree with the raw percentage issue, though if there is one thing that maybe saves Cortez Masto it's the fact that Nevada usually has a pretty large percentage of third party/none of the above votes. That being said, I've had this as a narrow Laxalt win for a while and I see no reason to change that call.