US House Redistricting: Texas

[Deldem]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/us/22ttramsey.html

Key quote:

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I can't imagine that Perry would ever let this happen.

Basically, they've got two weeks.  The budget is the other big thing that has to happen, and even though there is a general framework, details are not exactly in stone yet.  I don't know whether they'll be able to accomplish both, and Texas redistricters have not shown great creativity so far, which means they may prefer the court to draw the boundaries and wait, as the court tends to protect incumbents.  We'll see.

They could call a special session. They did it in 2003. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Perry did it again.

[Deldem]

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/?PlanHeader=PLANC130

New plan is out. They fixed the 36th. Put Ted Poe into a somewhat uncomfortable district. Dallas is unchanged.

Someone needs to bang it into their heads that Kevin Brady needs to be the guy to snag downtown Houston.

At a quick glance, Poe's CD is probably still 60% McCain - there's still far too much north Harris county. More importantly for the GOP, McCaul gets more north Houston, so his % should be helped.

The CD that will lose GOP % with the change should be Ron Paul's CD upon my quick glance.

This seems to be correct... Paul picks up Beaumont and Port Arthur, it seems. He still looks like he has a pretty safe seat overall, though.

[Deldem]

I was reading about this one race back in 2004 in the magazine the other day. As you know, they redrew the lines in 2003 by the legislature. They drew a district that took in heavily GOP Johnson County, a bedroom community of Fort Worth; and stretched down to the military republican stronghold of College Station. It was drawn so that one of the legislators, Arlene Wohlgemuth, could run there. She was a Marilyn Musgrave type republican woman (the vile, fire-breathing type). She ran in the district in 2004 but ran 22 points behind George W. Bush (who lived in that district) and lost by 3 points. I had always thought that anything past a +6 PVI meant anybody could win the district no matter how partisan they were. Its always good to hear that people will sometimes vote for the person and not the party.

Well that was Chet Edwards, who was probably the Texas Democrat with the highest ceiling pre-2010. Sadly, that year was too strong, and he's probably done, unless he improbably decides to run for Senate and then wins.

[Deldem]

Did the winner of the Dem primary not have a majority of the Hispanic vote?

No. The winner had 50.4% of the vote, and a much higher percentage among White voters.

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No, that is the exact opposite of the Truth. The VRA has two key components. First, that Blacks, and other minorities, can vote. And, second, they can vote for whomever they want, and, not just the preferable/least_objectionable White candidate.

Again, the past practise of the DoJ has been to demand that such districts that revert be "packed" with even more minorities so that a minority candidate wins.

I can't find any links to exit polls, but this district is something like 70-80% Hispanic. O'Rourke must have received a significant portion of the Hispanic vote. Even if he didn't receive a majority of the Hispanic vote, I don't think you could really classify this as "racially polarized voting."

If Whites voted overwhelming for the White Democrat, and Hispanics voted mostly for the Hispanic Democrat, that seems to be "racially polarized" voting to me!

Again, I'd really like to see the exit polls. I don't know what the margins are in this particular case, but the demographics of the district suggest that O'Rourke received at least a substantial minority of Hispanic voters. I contend that it isn't racially polarized voting on the basis that the Hispanic vote was sufficiently divided in such a way as to allow the white Democrat to emerge victorious. My opinion on this may change when and if I see the exit polls.

The district as drawn is north of 75% Hispanic VAP. It's possible to draw a roughly 85% Hispanic VAP seat, but it looks real ugly and splits a few counties, and weakens CD-23.

I think the important thing is to see if this continues in future elections. One fluke election isn't enough to throw out an entire seat- otherwise, CD-23 would've been changed years ago. Now, if the preferred candidate of choice continually is defeated, measures might have to be taken, but it's an overreaction if it's done immediately.