Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Matty]

Is the Arab vote in israel sort of like the black vote was for dems for much of 90s and early 2000s?

aka, huge untapped potential in terms of voter turnout?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why would anyone vote B+W over Yesh Atid?

[danny]

After 417K votes counted (%):
Likud: 25.91
Yesh Atid: 11.43
Shas: 8.69
UTJ: 8.47
Beitenu: 6.1
Yamina: 5.86
Blue And White: 5.69
Religious Zionism: 5.36
Labour: 5.19
Joint List: 4.3
New Hope: 4.29
RAAM: 3.65
Meretz: 3.54

After 505K votes counted (%):
Likud: 26.4
Yesh Atid: 11.64
Shas: 8.9
UTJ: 8.29
Beitenu: 6.17
Yamina: 5.8
Blue And White: 5.73
Religious Zionism: 5.24
Labour: 5.15
New Hope: 4.34
Joint List: 3.93
Meretz: 3.53
RAAM: 3.35

[Oryxslayer]

Is the Arab vote in israel sort of like the black vote was for dems for much of 90s and early 2000s?

aka, huge untapped potential in terms of voter turnout?

Yes and No. Yes as far as turnout is concerned. No as in their loyalty to Arab parties like AA loyalties to Dems. Factionalism is not just a Jewish thing, the Israeli Arabs have always been diverse in their preferences when analyzed. Its just that the largest and most concentrated arab settlements are Arab party strongholds for a variety of economic, religious, and identity reasons, so its easy to generalize the demographic as homogenous.

For example, Christian Arabs are likely to have higher educations and earn more than your average Israeli Jew.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

it's not worth it at all for netanyahu to accept raam into his government. Court arab voters? Sure. Actually accept raam, lolno.

[Oryxslayer]

it's not worth it at all for netanyahu to accept raam into his government. Court arab voters? Sure. Actually accept raam, lolno.

cheering for raam to hopefully stay above 3.25

You do know Ra'am prefers Bibi to YA/Sa'ar and is willing to go into government with him, right?

Ra'am has said it will NOT support a govt with the Kahanists, and vice versa, so that option is mathematically off the table. Doesn't matter.

The Ra'am option is impossible because the Kahanists literally want to strip citizenship of all Arab citizens. Abbas and Ben Gvir denounced each others intentions when Ra'am talked about supporting Likud. The Kahanists are key to Likuds hypothetical majority, so a different coalition would need to be discovered in order for the Ra'am option to work.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

it's not worth it at all for netanyahu to accept raam into his government. Court arab voters? Sure. Actually accept raam, lolno.

cheering for raam to hopefully stay above 3.25

You do know Ra'am prefers Bibi to YA/Sa'ar and is willing to go into government with him, right?

Ra'am has said it will NOT support a govt with the Kahanists, and vice versa, so that option is mathematically off the table. Doesn't matter.

The Ra'am option is impossible because the Kahanists literally want to strip citizenship of all Arab citizens. Abbas and Ben Gvir denounced each others intentions when Ra'am talked about supporting Likud. The Kahanists are key to Likuds hypothetical majority, so a different coalition would need to be discovered in order for the Ra'am option to work.

shas utj and avigdor would be headaches too even, it simply isnt worth it to include raam.

[jaichind]

Is the count slower this year due to COVID-19 and the need for social distancing at counting centers ?

[danny]

After 505K votes counted (%):
Likud: 26.4
Yesh Atid: 11.64
Shas: 8.9
UTJ: 8.29
Beitenu: 6.17
Yamina: 5.8
Blue And White: 5.73
Religious Zionism: 5.24
Labour: 5.15
New Hope: 4.34
Joint List: 3.93
Meretz: 3.53
RAAM: 3.35

After 893K votes counted (%):
Likud: 25.13
Yesh Atid: 11.6
Shas: 8.66
UTJ: 7.93
Beitenu: 6.13
Blue And White: 5.76
Yamina: 5.73
Religious Zionism: 5.35
Labour: 5.22
Joint List: 5.04
New Hope: 4.36
RAAM: 3.83
Meretz: 3.76

[Bidenworth2020]

Is the count slower this year due to COVID-19 and the need for social distancing at counting centers ?

I believe so, as well as the need to count quarantine votes (which should favor anti-Bibi parties, presumably?)

[Oryxslayer]

Is the count slower this year due to COVID-19 and the need for social distancing at counting centers ?

I would blame the ~30% more voting sites this year to preserve distancing, so more data needs to be collected from more places.

[danny]

After 893K votes counted (%):
Likud: 25.13
Yesh Atid: 11.6
Shas: 8.66
UTJ: 7.93
Beitenu: 6.13
Blue And White: 5.76
Yamina: 5.73
Religious Zionism: 5.35
Labour: 5.22
Joint List: 5.04
New Hope: 4.36
RAAM: 3.83
Meretz: 3.76

After 1.25M votes counted (%):
Likud: 24.98
Yesh Atid: 11.69
Shas: 8.47
UTJ: 7.62
Beitenu: 6.02
Yamina: 5.82
Blue And White: 5.78
Religious Zionism: 5.6
Joint List: 5.58
Labour: 5.17
New Hope: 4.38
Meretz: 3.8
RAAM: 3.6

[Adam Griffin]

...is this happening?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

After 893K votes counted (%):
Likud: 25.13
Yesh Atid: 11.6
Shas: 8.66
UTJ: 7.93
Beitenu: 6.13
Blue And White: 5.76
Yamina: 5.73
Religious Zionism: 5.35
Labour: 5.22
Joint List: 5.04
New Hope: 4.36
RAAM: 3.83
Meretz: 3.76

After 1.25M votes counted (%):
Likud: 24.98
Yesh Atid: 11.69
Shas: 8.47
UTJ: 7.62
Beitenu: 6.02
Yamina: 5.82
Blue And White: 5.78
Religious Zionism: 5.6
Joint List: 5.58
Labour: 5.17
New Hope: 4.38
Meretz: 3.8
RAAM: 3.6

looks like the right wing parties are ahead 63-37 rn, cities must be out

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

honestly
the only real bibiless future possible in the near future
is something like an eventual campaign season where u have the anti bibi coalition ditch the arab parties
and instead try and pickup avigdor, bennett, and saar
and
keep hoping for more ppl like bennett and saar to keep peeling off
from likud

[Oryxslayer]

For those unexperienced with the Israeli vote count, or unable to read a Hebrew excel file:

This is the part of the night where the Jerusalem count races ahead of other large cities and skews the vote total. Jerusalem is a Haredi and Religious Zionist stronghold for obvious reasons, and Likud dominates the other half of the vote. It is usually assisted it its partisan effort by smaller yet still large areas like Ashdod, Bnei Brak, and Bet Shemesh. So the votes counted are unrepresentative of the final total.

For example, Tel Aviv has only 5.6K votes counted to Jerusalem's 100k. Interestingly Haifa is keeping up with Jerusalem this time.

[jaichind]

Its is interesting how all the recent Likud splinters all end up eating into the anti-Likud vote versus the Likud vote.

[Adam Griffin]

So based on the above numbers, is this currently the case?

Code:

Anti-Netanyahu	47.51
Pro-Netanyahu	46.67
Yamina		5.82

[Oryxslayer]

So based on the above numbers, is this currently the case?

Code:

Anti-Netanyahu	47.51
Pro-Netanyahu	46.67
Yamina		5.82

More accurately:

46.67% Pro-Netanyahu
36.84% Anti-Netanyahu
9.18% Arabs
5.82% Yamina.

So no majority for Bibi right now, with a skewed count, but also no majority for a non-Bibi govt. Non-Bibi's vote percent traditionally goes up later in the count but they might need the polls to be off to pass Pro-Bibi without the Arabs but with Yamina.

[danny]

After 1.25M votes counted (%):
Likud: 24.98
Yesh Atid: 11.69
Shas: 8.47
UTJ: 7.62
Beitenu: 6.02
Yamina: 5.82
Blue And White: 5.78
Religious Zionism: 5.6
Joint List: 5.58
Labour: 5.17
New Hope: 4.38
Meretz: 3.8
RAAM: 3.6

After 1.873M votes counted (%):
Likud: 24.75
Yesh Atid: 12.67
Shas: 8.02
UTJ: 7.22
Blue And White: 6.1
Yamina: 6.08
Beitenu: 6.02
Religious Zionism: 5.59
Joint List: 5.3
Labour: 5.14
New Hope: 4.64
Meretz: 3.74
RAAM: 3.24

RAAM drops just below the 3.25% threshold.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/IsraelexLive/status/1374318103220383745


lmfao. How stupid are the people of Gideon Sa'ar?


[on a different note, that particular account keeps liking to a forecast based on the current vote which, at the moment, has the bibi bloc on 62?]

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/IsraelexLive/status/1374318103220383745


lmfao. How stupid are the people of Gideon Sa'ar?

The Hope for Change party currently only has 493, comparable to other small parties, whereas Sa'ar right now has 86,337. If there was a Butterfly Ballot effect, it was miniscule. The point of the big Hebrew characters is to prevent confusion, and Taf is not similar to Resh linguistically.

on a different note, that particular account keeps liking to a forecast based on the current vote which, at the moment, has the bibi bloc on 62?]

Note what I said above about Jerusalem and the skews of the count. Its normal.

[Adam Griffin]

So based on the above numbers, is this currently the case?

Code:

Anti-Netanyahu	47.51
Pro-Netanyahu	46.67
Yamina		5.82

More accurately:

46.67% Pro-Netanyahu
36.84% Anti-Netanyahu
9.18% Arabs
5.82% Yamina.

So no majority for Bibi right now, with a skewed count, but also no majority for a non-Bibi govt. Non-Bibi's vote percent traditionally goes up later in the count but they might need the polls to be off to pass Pro-Bibi without the Arabs but with Yamina.

OK, thanks. I've since deleted my list, but I think it's [Likud + Shas + UTJ + RZ], [JL+RAAM], Yamina, and everybody else?

If so:

Code:

Pro-Netanyahu		45.58%
Anti-Netanyahu		39.80%
Arabs (JL+RAAM)	8.54%	
Yamina			6.08%

[Vosem]

it's not worth it at all for netanyahu to accept raam into his government. Court arab voters? Sure. Actually accept raam, lolno.

cheering for raam to hopefully stay above 3.25

You do know Ra'am prefers Bibi to YA/Sa'ar and is willing to go into government with him, right?

Ra'am has said it will NOT support a govt with the Kahanists, and vice versa, so that option is mathematically off the table. Doesn't matter.

The Ra'am option is impossible because the Kahanists literally want to strip citizenship of all Arab citizens. Abbas and Ben Gvir denounced each others intentions when Ra'am talked about supporting Likud. The Kahanists are key to Likuds hypothetical majority, so a different coalition would need to be discovered in order for the Ra'am option to work.

Does this mean just the literal Kahanists, or RZ as a whole? In terms of literal Kahanists, Ben-Gvir is #3 on the RZ list, but after him the others from his party are in various unwinnable slots, and I'm sure Bibi would be willing to cut off Ben-Gvir to let Ra'am support him.

If it means RZ as a whole, then that might be a much tougher ask.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

it's not worth it at all for netanyahu to accept raam into his government. Court arab voters? Sure. Actually accept raam, lolno.

cheering for raam to hopefully stay above 3.25

You do know Ra'am prefers Bibi to YA/Sa'ar and is willing to go into government with him, right?

Ra'am has said it will NOT support a govt with the Kahanists, and vice versa, so that option is mathematically off the table. Doesn't matter.

The Ra'am option is impossible because the Kahanists literally want to strip citizenship of all Arab citizens. Abbas and Ben Gvir denounced each others intentions when Ra'am talked about supporting Likud. The Kahanists are key to Likuds hypothetical majority, so a different coalition would need to be discovered in order for the Ra'am option to work.

Does this mean just the literal Kahanists, or RZ as a whole? In terms of literal Kahanists, Ben-Gvir is #3 on the RZ list, but after him the others from his party are in various unwinnable slots, and I'm sure Bibi would be willing to cut off Ben-Gvir to let Ra'am support him.

If it means RZ as a whole, then that might be a much tougher ask.

but would shas and utj really be able to stomach being in a majority with raam lol