2023 UK Local Elections (user search)
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Author Topic: 2023 UK Local Elections  (Read 18940 times)
Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« on: December 27, 2022, 06:17:31 PM »
« edited: December 27, 2022, 06:22:21 PM by Torrain »
Northern Ireland is the only one of the devolved nations to hold council elections in 2023.

Like the NI Legislature, the councils are elected via PR, in large multi-member districts.

Each council has 40 or 41 members (except Belfast, which has 60), and no party holds a majority on any of them. The DUP elected 122 councillors in total, just ahead of SF on 105, in the last election, in 2019. In that cycle, SF stayed at the same number of total councillors, the DUP, SDLP and UUP fell slightly, and Alliance nearly doubled their total seats.

Notably, in 2019, SF won election to 17/40 seats in Mid-Ulster - bringing them close to a majority. So worth watching - even if PR is likely to prevent a major upset.

In 2019, the SDLP managed to come back from a poor second place showing to tie SF for largest party in Derry (Derry City and Strabane District Council). Derry remains a heartland for the party, and they retook the Westminster constituency (tactfully named “Foyle” after the city’s river, to avoid the great naming debate) in 2019. So I imagine this will be a key target for them to improve on.

And as ever, the ability of Alliance to soak up votes from the disenchanted, largely moderates who’ve grown tired of smaller parties like the UUP and SDLP will be interesting. Alliance became the second-largest party in Ards and North Down in 2019 - based on a DUP slump. Will be interested to see whether that continues, and whether it could propel them towards largest-party status. This council is dominated by territory they won from unionists in Westminster in 2019, so definitely one to watch.

Another couple to keep an eye on - the DUP have another bad year, Lisburn and Castlereagh could become a three-way brawl for first place between DUP, UUP and Alliance. As will Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon, where the DUP (11), SF (11), and UUP (10) will be tussling for largest-party status.

I apologise if this was a slightly unfocused ramble, with a focus on sectarian politics, but given this is NI we’re talking about, it seems vaguely appropriate…
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2023, 08:52:44 PM »
It’s only one poll - but crabcake’s point about this not being a slam-dunk against Labour seems to being borne out:

One thing I’d be interested to work out - is the higher awareness amongst Labour-leaning and younger voters a result of influencer types kicking up a fuss, and awareness of voter ID fights in the US? Or is it something more mundane.

Either way - I’d be rather amused if the policy gets shifted back after a disastrous rollout and several days of the BBC doing vox pops with angry members of the blue rinse brigade.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2023, 06:34:13 AM »
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2023, 03:45:50 PM »
Housekeeping, particularly for international viewers (welcome!). We're not expecting initial results until around 2am UK time. Most will report across Friday morning, with results trickling out across the day. BBC News will be running election coverage from 23.40 tonight to 6.00 tomorrow.

If you're looking for some people to follow on social media (ok, Twitter) for election results/opinion, I'd offer the following as an introductory list:

Sir John Curtice will offer some of the most definitive early analysis, but he'll be on TV, rather than online.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2023, 03:54:24 PM »
Predicted election declaration times for each council, via the Press Association.

Spoiler alert: Council declaration times, chronological - 230 entries


Mayoral election declaration times:
  • Middlesbrough-01:00
  • Mansfield-12:00
  • Bedford-13:00
  • Leicester-15:30
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2023, 04:18:40 PM »
Political editors all going for some variation on "Lib Dems ecstatic, Tories worried, who knows whether Labour will do 'well enough'..."
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2023, 06:20:56 PM »
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2023, 06:24:16 PM »
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2023, 06:36:01 PM »

Huge swings continue in Stoke.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2023, 07:02:38 PM »
Speculation abounds that the Tories are doing badly in Windsor & Maidenhead. Has been briefed to journalists, and without saying too much, I know a guy at the count who’s been implying the same.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2023, 07:07:26 PM »

Could be one of the totemic wins of the night, given recent history.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2023, 08:00:05 PM »
Have to imagine Tamworth’s local MP didn’t exactly buoy the Tories’ campaign.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2023, 02:01:17 AM »
Media circuit has started - Ed Davey is bouncing around like an excitable cartoon character, and talking up tactical voting in 2024.

Tory Chairman Greg Hands is trying to spin that their worst-case scenario prediction (losing 1,000 seats) is an independent forecast, and seems to have locked himself into repeating Sunak's five pledges over and over again.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2023, 02:16:10 AM »
Conservatives lose control of South Gloucestershire - now No Overall Control.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2023, 02:56:45 AM »
Quote from: JimJamUK on May 05, 2023, 02:50:57 AM
Labour have a won a stonking majority in Bolsover which was NOC in 2019. The independent vote was clearly partly NOTA and partly ‘closet Tory’ as they’ve collapse with the Tories largely competing with Labour for seats (they didn’t win many, but their vote share, especially combined, was semi-respectable).

You're not kidding! 31/37 is fantastic, especially after their ailes in the area in both 2019 elections.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2023, 05:17:00 AM »
Dread it, run from it, gimmicky prop-based Lib Dem photoshoots arrive all the same:
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2023, 05:22:11 AM »


Now is the winter of Tory discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Davey
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2023, 05:57:27 AM »
Heavy swings against the Tories in East Hertfordshire. They’ve lost 25 of their 46 seats so far (some still to count…). Greens have emerged as the largest party, and made 15 gains so far.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2023, 06:26:31 AM »

For God's sake, let us sit upon the ground
And tell sad stories of the death of kings;
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2023, 06:39:11 AM »
Labour calling East Staffordshire as a gain. Currently 25 Con, Lab 10.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2023, 07:15:59 AM »
As of 1pm:
  • Total number of council seats to be filled: 8,063
  • Total number of seats now filled: 2,183
  • 80/230 councils declared

We’re only 1/4 of the way there…
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2023, 07:35:47 AM »
Conservatives lose Bromsgrove to NOC.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2023, 09:27:25 AM »
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2023, 09:43:48 AM »
Conservatives had about 780 more councillors than Labour at the start of the evening. The gap now stands at 66.

It looks like Labour about to overtake, and control a plurality of seats for the first time in over 20 years.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,174
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2023, 10:13:12 AM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on May 05, 2023, 10:08:18 AM
Dover is reportedly a Labour flip. Which just begs further questions about what the rest of coastal Kent/Thames Estuary looks like. Dartford is the most lofty target, but it doesn't seem out of reach...

Labour flipping Dover would be big. It’s the sort of Blair-Cameron seat I wasn’t sure would flip back.

And it’s a rather symbolic indictment of the Tories approach to immigration…
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