2023 UK Local Elections

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1637484745192865795?s=20

Regular breakdowns each Sunday here and on twitch.

[Oryxslayer]

New Statesman/Britain Elects are out with their 2023 councilor data map and analysis - you can view it with a free limited-articles account.

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1646857966656663552?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

I notice that that New Statesman article does not discuss the prospects of the Labour candidates in Chester City & the Garden Quarter ward on Cheshire West & Chester council.

It's kinda interesting why Chester isn't even discussed: the guy who does this analysis + Britainelects has mentioned on a few times on the stream/podcast that he is standing as a Labour candidate in one of the Chester wards and therefore there is a conflict of interest to analyze the council.  Though perhaps you already knew this and that was the subtext which went over my head.

[Oryxslayer]

At the moment, maybe hard to beat Plymouth which has descended into chaos after some especially vicious internal Tory warfare.

Also trees. Cause it's always trees when the council is collapsing.  

Also on the wider point, liverpool are still under oversight from the appointed managers. Heck,  the new ward map that's going to be used this year was imposed by them,  and since it's basically all SMDs and 2MDs things could get interesting if voters want a change from local labour.

[Oryxslayer]

They’re largely powerless and have to follow strict rules where they do have powers (see planning and social services spending) Unlike other nations they don’t have control over education or policing.


On another note It should be compulsory for everyone in U.K. politics to talk to a truly normal person (no not your parents who subscribe to the Times) about local government- most people don’t know the difference between their directly elected ward councillors and the local council, let alone the bizarre way that council tax is increased, or how planning law works- you often see people referring to powers local councils haven’t had for decades! (E.g building control)

I commented on the other U.K. page but it seems very much like moving around armies than don’t exist when both parties talk about local councils- we have at least 3(?) who are bankrupt and several others that would be classed as failed states if they were countries.

This type of comment seemingly always appears - rightly - in these council threads every year. Heck, every BBC peice I have found on the topic ends with a bit about why these elections are 'important.'

Which is why, deep down, the best purpose of the local elections these days is as a barometer of the national mood. Obviously there are caveats like localists, independents, and lib dems all doing much better than in a GE. But at the end of the day a voter is still likely to conflate the national party brand with the local one, and so will vote according to their national feelings - unless the council does something really good or more often really bad to get their undivided attention.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, another council that has problems right now is Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole. There's a lot there concerning a bunch of different things when it comes to mismanagement and shady tactics by the Tories. Of course the opposition there is in no way unified and the results are probably going to be a collage of factions forced together by circumstances.

[Oryxslayer]

But more seriously, it will be interesting to see the impact of the freak 2019 changes of control next month. The implosion of the 2 major parties, especially the Conservatives, led to some rag tag coalitions, and even outright majority switches (keep an eye on Uttlesford which went overwhelmingly Residents and has subsequently lost planning powers due to their NIMBYism). Some of these will prove popular and once again benefit from Conservative woes, a few others may prove to be the rare Conservatives gains.

One of the more peculiar cases of this is South Derbyshire. Tories win a majority in 2019, like they have had for about a decade. Then they lose that majority to a significant portion of their class becoming independents, who proceeded to put Labour in control from 2021 onwards. Like in seemingly most cases of defections at the turbulent local level you still stay somewhat loyal to your former party and don't challenge their control until new elections create a new reality,  a new councilor grouping gives order to the disorganized,  something like that. But this seems to have been a pure flip which suggests more than bad feelings.

Now obviously Labour are hunting for gains here, but it will be interesting to see the behavior of their voters when it comes to those indies who are standing again.

 Also both major party leaders are standing down.

[Oryxslayer]

Local election night traditions to look out for ---

The tone of the night/day after being set by the first few council declarations, even if they are completely unrepresentative overall.

Fortunately, this time around the first councils should be instructive rather than outliers. And this is because we are dealing with an environment where it's going to be Tory losses in all but a specific places, whereas the past few local elections have been good for Conservatives or close enough to tied that you can have large portions of the country recognizably trending in different directions. Labour flips the script.

Like one of the first councils to declare in 2022 was Bolton. That might take longer to count this time cause all seats are up because of redistricting, rather than 1/3, but it's still perhaps the most interesting council election this year. So many localist groups, incumbent conservatives, and Labour looking to push them all aside and take majority in a marginal area.

Then there's Sunderland where one can get a strong indicator of how well a council with a less-than-perfect reputation benefits from the polling - theoretically a sweep is possible but unlikely. The list of areas that have reported early in the past then continues to be filled with Labour target areas to varying degrees: Peterborough, Worcester, Amber Valley, Hartlepool, Plymouth, Reddich, Thurrock, Wirral, and Swindon - the place where National Labour launched their locals campaign cause a flip seems so easily in reach.

[Oryxslayer]

Local election night traditions to look out for ---

The tone of the night/day after being set by the first few council declarations, even if they are completely unrepresentative overall.

Fortunately, this time around the first councils should be instructive rather than outliers. And this is because we are dealing with an environment where it's going to be Tory losses in all but a specific places, whereas the past few local elections have been good for Conservatives or close enough to tied that you can have large portions of the country recognizably trending in different directions. Labour flips the script.

Like one of the first councils to declare in 2022 was Bolton. That might take longer to count this time cause all seats are up because of redistricting, rather than 1/3, but it's still perhaps the most interesting council election this year. So many localist groups, incumbent conservatives, and Labour looking to push them all aside and take majority in a marginal area.

Then there's Sunderland where one can get a strong indicator of how well a council with a less-than-perfect reputation benefits from the polling - theoretically a sweep is possible but unlikely. The list of areas that have reported early in the past then continues to be filled with Labour target areas to varying degrees: Peterborough, Worcester, Amber Valley, Hartlepool, Plymouth, Reddich, Thurrock, Wirral, and Swindon - the place where National Labour launched their locals campaign cause a flip seems so easily in reach.

Amber Valley is also all-outs and won't count until Friday. Wirral and Swindon are also counting on Friday, this time.

I knew I would have some incorrect listings there because my sources were what has happened previously, and there are plenty of reasons why the past may not be predicative in some cases. Like you noted, Wirral and Amber Valley are like Bolton stopped the thirds rule (in Wirral's case seemingly permanently) so that would take more time. To that end, do you have a timesheet of expected declarations already? Cause I do not.

[Oryxslayer]

The coverage this year seems very weak- I haven’t even seen many fabled vox pops with pensioners and butchers (the only people out at 10am)!

I assume because none of the cities are up the media are struggling to work out what to actually report on- other than the stupid ‘1,000 Tory losses’ which gets written up even when they tell you in the next breath it’s part of the spin…

Huh?  Most big English cities have elections, the main exceptions being London, Birmingham and Bristol.  Some are pretty dull TBH (Manchester, Nottingham) but there's plenty of potential for interest in many of the others.

I think a lot of the explanation is to do with how bad our media is, and how dead local journalism is in particular.

I chalk it up to inevitability. Everyone, even the Tories, knows this will be bad for the Conservatives, just how bad is the only question. And since that outcome isn't in doubt probably anywhere in the country, just to varying degrees, there isn't any peculiarities or unique stories except maybe Mid Suffolk. Its just: "Here's a council the Tories should lose, will they though?" Those 1000 Tory losses number spun up to make the eventual outcome look better might still come to pass, but nowhere close to all of them will be going to Labour.


On another note, some poor soul of a polling firm tried to get a national poll for local elections:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1652001265021333504?s=20

The same polls GE numbers:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1651996271488512016?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

I said in another thread that the fact they are now starting to talk about *2000* losses suggests that around half that is now a genuine possibility - though I will still believe it when I see it.

I mean I have thought 1K losses for a while is on the cards - certainly not all to Labour - mainly because the nuances of the data suggest it to be a possibility.

Like compared to 2021 and in some places 2022, the Labour result looks good, but matched with older elections, the 2019 result wasn't that good for Labour. Which makes sense given the behavior of voters in early 2019 - the last days of May's Brexit fumbles. A chunk of both big parties was still going for the Strong Remain aligned parties  - Greens, Lib-Dems, the parties formed by parliamentary defectors - and a Chunk was looking at the Strong Leave aligned Brexit Party. But the latter did not stand local candidates. So we had a result that was very good for the Lib-Dems, especially since they were rising from the absolute floor of 2015 in many places, in the areas we associate with Remain in the south. But in the Leave areas it was often the Tories who were the Leave option, with occasionally a large crop of independents benefiting instead. There's a reason why the Tories ended up in control of places like Darlington, NE Derbyshire, Stoke-on-Trent, and NE Lincolnshire after 2019.

Then we have council redistricting, or an equivalent change in processes like in Wirral. The boundary changes aren't that important in most areas, but rather the result is that all councilors must stand at once on the new lines. This is a big shakeup in places which usually stagger their councilors and elect in thirds. The Conservative wave class of 2021 and the suboptimal class of 2022  - at least in many of the areas which matter this year - now have to stand in a year opposite of what initially elected them. And a full one-thirdof councilors up for reelection this year standing in new wards. Obviously not all of such areas have relevant battles for control either locally or nationally, but a surprising number of them do. This includes places like Derby, Amber Valley, and Bolton.

All this is to say that we have not seen a political environment like this in a while, and Labour have a lot of targets in such an environment. And it won't just be the Tories who lose, the pro-Brexit indies across Leave-land also have outlived their usefulness. The Lib-Dems fantastic 2019 intake means overexposure. They probably will lose seats in Lib-Lab fights, and the Tories might pick up seats in places the Lib-Dems really shouldn't have won in 2019. But those losses should be canceled out by gains off the Tories in the Con-Lib southern councils dotted across Hertfordshire, Surry, Oxfordshire, Devon, and the rest.

[Oryxslayer]

If they lose 2000 seats, the only conclusion we can draw is that the Tories are heading towards an extinction level event. (I.e. don't get your hopes up).

For the Tories to lose closer to 2000 than 1000, they need to first get swept in most of the councils which you would expect an opposition party, of any color, to do well. Then they need to start losing largr numbers of seats in thr councils where there is no opposition, to either Indies or new localists.  While there are a few places the local Tories have shat the bed and one can expect a sweep, I don't think either of the two prerequisites can be met widely enough to get us even close to that spin number of 2k.

It's also weird how much we focus on the numbers when everyone always gets pulled in by the shiny lights e.g those councils who declare first.

It's also interesting that the number is what matters,  when the overall labels of majority,  minority,  and NOC are right there to measure changes in control.  This likely won't be any better for the Conservatives at all, like 1/3 of councils could go from Tory administrations to something new form of control, but it should be a more conveyable headline then raw councillors.

To be fair, the issue last time wasn't that the early results were deceptively good for the Tories - they were rubbish, and their actual good results mostly trickled in late on Friday. The issue was that the media fell for very obvious lies.

Three things are crucially different than last time.

One, the results are all expected within 24 hours so there's no hiding behind the schedule, which is what the Tories did in 2022. The national environment was close enough that there were variations in direction of travel and the degrees of it, especially when we talk about London vs like the early reporting NE.

Two, the polling is such that the Tories should be net losing everywhere that doesn't have overwhelming local issues like Leicester. We'll be able to get a read on how big the losses therefore from measuring certain early councils to expectations.  Is there a sweep in Sunderland,  and if not who held on? Were Basildon and Brentwood interesting even though the maps there are good for the Tories? Did Labour gain off the three-way fight Portsmouth? Are Labour the largest party  in Reddich or Hartlepool? Just how bad was Thurrock for the Conservatives after all the financial mismanagement? And did Harlow fall despite Labour needing to win every seat up? All good benchmarks.

Three, the wider population is guaranteed to forget about them very quickly no matter the outcome,  even if those politically invested do not. Coronation coverage is to extraordinary to ignore.

[Oryxslayer]

A couple sentences on each of the councils which could be interesting tomorrow, not including the places where localists significantly obscure the outcome. Data and analysis comes from a mixture of New Statesman's councilor election maps, GIS analysis, and research. Reminder, swings can vary from place to place, even with some areas bucking the trend depending on local issues and situations. A lot of places were last up in 2019, but a lot more were not thanks to council redistricting putting everyone on the same ballot.

That 2019 comparison has seemingly messed with some analysis, because polling during the final days of May's government was bad for both Labour and Conservatives. But in the locals that ensued Labour was in an analytically bad position: both parties lost voters to Remain-focused Lib-Dems and Greens, but the lack of similar hyper-Leave Brexit Party candidates meant the Tories were the next best option in specific councils. So when someone says the Tories now have similar polling to 2019, that conflates the local and national, ignores how coalitions have shifted in the chaotic four years, and ignores how Labour is much higher than the Tories cause they are winning comparable numbers of Tory voters to those in 2019 who opted for a hard-remain or hard-Leave party.

Finally, a note that Labours gains with voters while immense enough to be felt significantly everywhere, are most acute in “commuterville” towns, cities, and suburbs according to polling. This is not at all "blue wall" territory, I think the best indicator is that these are places Blair won but the previous 15 years have seen some shift more in Labour's favor and some slip from safe to competitive territory.

Councils are ordered by expected count times (seats up in staggered term councils):

1:30 - Basildon: 25 (7) Con – 10 (6) Lab – 2 Others – 5 (1) Indies. 2019 here was Labour’s good year, and they won most of the urban area. This council will be a good early indicator of just how strong Labour’s polling is. Previous results say there is little room for growth from 2019, but an anti-tory wave could throw the council to NOC.

1:30 Harlow: 20 Con (4) – 13 Lab (7). Labour got swept here in 2021, seemingly locking in Tory government. Labour would need a full sweep of this class to take control, but they could theoretically get it thanks not just to the favorable national situation, but also thanks to striking local government employees. If Labour does make notable gains here, it will be a favorable portent, and this council serves as a good indicator of just how good Labour are doing,

1:30 Hartlepool: 15 (4) Con – 12 (4) Lab – 2 Others (1) – 7 (3) Indies. Redistricting happened in 2021 which allowed the Conservatives to defeat many pro-leave independents elected after Brexit. While a member of the localist group has led the council the government is Tory-Backed. Labour held up well in 2022, despite the by-election organization built in the preceding year, and have convinced some elected Indies to run for them. Local Labour believe they could sweep the available seats for a majority…

1:30 Sunderland: 43 Lab (13) – 15 (5) Con – 14 (5) LD – 1 RefUK – 2 Indies (2). (1 Lab seat delayed because of candidate death) Sunderland Labour had a horrible reputation several years ago, which gradually led to them losing wards to many parties. However, in 2022 Labour defied expectations and avoided the degradation which would have sent the council to NOC. Now the opposition – particularly the local Tories – are also in turmoil and the Lib-Dems expect to lead the opposition. Polling would suggest a near-sweep, but the opposition has locked down some wards, and Labour’s lingering reputation may act as a ceiling…

2:00 Brentwood: 20 Con (7) – 14 LD (5) – 2 Lab (1) – 1 Indie. Theoretically, should be safe for the Tories since most of the seats up were easily won in the past. However, if there is an anti-Conservative wave and tactical voting then we should expect Lib-Dem gains and a potential flip...

2:00 Portsmouth: 17 LD (6) – 13 Con (6) – 6 Lab (1) – 3 Others – 3 Indie (1). In 2022 the Conservatives got swept out of their traditional wards in the north of the city, and retiring councilors plus the national environment suggest this could happen again. The Lib-Dems are hoping to win a majority, but Labour was the beneficiary of conservative decline in 2022.

2:00 Reddich: 19 Con (7) – 8 Lab (1) – 1 Green (1) – 1 Indie (1). Reddich was a Labour council for most of the last two decades, but they collapsed after Brexit. This though has led to Tory overexposure, so Labour expect gains.

2:00 Thurrock: 29 Con ( 8 ) – 14 Lab (4) – 3 Other (3) -3 Indies (1). Among the most deprived areas in the country, Thurrock had a large Brexit vote percentage, and then a Tory surge in the last two years –magnified by former UKIP councilor defections. However, the incumbents have fallen into an economic pit through financial mismanagement and bad investments – a situation so bad that they called for outside national assistance. An anti-incumbent anti-incompetence wave combined with the national political environment does offer Labour the outside potential of a complete sweep and majority government…

2:30 North East Lincolnshire: 30 Con (10) – 8 Lab (4) – 3 LD (1) – 1 Indie. The Tories are dominant in Grimsby’s council – they would have to lose every one of their seats up to lose control. National prognosticators are seemingly fixated on this council, but residents bemoan the state of local Labour. A good bellwether on not just the size of the Labour swings, but additionally if it can overcome poor local conditions.

2:45 Hull: 29 LD ( 8 ) – 27 Lab (11) – 1 Indie (1). For many years now Hull has been a two-way fight without the Conservatives, though Labour stayed on top of the Lib-Dems until 2022. Will the national environment bring Labour gains, or with the lack of Conservatives insolate Hull from the national mood?

2:45 Worcester: 15 Con (7) – 12 (4) Lab – 6 (1) Green – 2 LD. The best year recently for Conservatives was the now-up class of 2019. 3 of their 7 seats up were won by other parties last year, and Labour are targeting additional previously close wards. The Tories seem poised to lose their position as largest party and leadership.

3:00 North Lincolnshire: 27 Con – 15 Lab – 1 Indie. The topline numbers obscure just how heavy of a lift this will be for Labour to flip. Sculthorpe is almost entirely Labour, and the rest of the rural council area has large Tory majorities. Even though redistricting theoretically gives Labour a few more targets, and the seats Labour has lost in the city should be won back, getting the remaining handful needed for control will be difficult.

3:00 Peterborough: 28 Con (6) – 14 Lab (6) – 8 LD (4) – 4 Green (3) – 4 Others (1) – 1 Indie (1). The Tories have been the largest party and led Peterborough for 20 years. The former is very unlikely to change, but the latter might. The local Labour party though has seen councilors defect to the Greens, so this may be a place where the national environment bails out the ‘progressive opposition.’

3:30 Cotswold: 18 LD – 14 Con – 1 Green – 1 Indie. This once-misrun Tory council finally fell to the Lib-Dems in 2019, but now the Tories are trying to take it back. The Lib-Dems though are aiming for gains to strengthen control.  

3:30 Dudley: 45 Con (13) – 25 Lab (11) – 2 indies. 2022 and 2019 were decent for Dudley Labour, but 2021 was a Tory wave that gave Conservatives control. A reverse wave would return Labour to power in this GE battleground.
  
4:00 Bolton: 23 Con – 19 Lab – 5 LD – 11 Others in 6(!) groups – 2 Indies. Perhaps the most interesting council up in 2023. Bolton has been the home of fractured localist groups, a feature that really took off after the local UKIP collapsed. The Tories have held a minority govt here since 2019. Importantly, redistricting has put all 60 councilors up for election in a national environment that is the opposite of 2021. The 2022 locals weren’t good for the small groups – will Labour’s national lead finally wipe them all aside…

4:00 Plymouth: 25 Lab ( 8 ) – 23 (6) Con – 3 Green (1) – 5 Others (3) – 1 Indie (1). The Plymouth Tories are in trouble. Recent defections over policy and reselection have created a localist group. The Conservatives lost two by-elections earlier this year. These losses made Labour the largest group, but the Conservatives continued to have their minority administration for the last few months…until the trees fell. Cutting down old trees in public places historically dooms upon local councils of all colors. This may be a case where the local Conservatives lose everywhere…

4:00 Southend-on-Sea: 21 Con (4) – 15 Lab (5) – 6 LD (3) – 7 Others in 2 Groups (3) – 2 Indies (2). Southend is the first of what I will call the “Thames battlegrounds.” These are places where Labour has seemingly fallen in political relevance nationally in the last decade but held up or gained locally during the same period. These additionally are areas where the national polling would point towards significant voter flips from the Tories rather than just enthusiasm gaps. Southend specifically is governed by a Labour + Lib-Dem + Localist coalition, the first non-Tory government in a very long time. 2022 results point towards more Conservative losses, but a sweep of their present allies is needed if Labour is to become the largest or majority party.  

4:30 Dacorum: 31 Con – 19 LD – 1 Indie. Lib-Dem success in surrounding councils has put Dacorum on their target list of suburban target councils. 25 years of Tory rule potentially come to an end if they flip it. This was quite literally the place where Davey launched their campaign by driving through those “blue wall” hay bales.

6:00 South Gloucestershire: 33 Con – 17 LD – 11 Lab. Mathematically, the Conservatives should be unable to retain control here when facing national backlash. But the council’s new leading party remains an open question. The Lib Dems have reliable strongholds in the Yate region, but there are more than enough Labour-Conservative marginal wards that could flip in Suburban Bristol.

6:00 Stoke-on-Trent: 22 Con – 13 Lab – 6 Others – 3 Indies. The Potteries have new districts. Currently the Conservatives have governed with help (and defections) from the localist groups. Labour are expecting to do well in a city with a long history of support. National Labour figures have called this their “Number 1 target” and resources have been poured in, though the Tories have not written the council off and are defending it with similar vigor.  

6:30 Medway: 32 Con – 21 Lab – 2 Indie. Another Thames battleground that Labour needs to win nationally at a GE. Labour have climbed into a strong position via recent results and the ward boundaries have been redistricted…

Gap as Overnight Councils finish and Friday Counts Begin

12:30 Worthing: 22 Lab (5) – 13 Con (5) – 1 LD (1). Labour gained Worthing for the first time ever in 2022, and the Tories aren’t likely to get it back. Past results suggest more Labour gains.

13:00 Cannock Chase: 22 Con ( 8 ) – 12 Lab (4) – 2 LD (1)– 2 Green (2) – 2 Other (2) – 1 Indie. The Tories swept the council in 2021 giving them a majority. However, Labour rebounded here thanks to by-election gains and defections, Additionally, the 2019 intake of Greens have fallen to infighting, so they could see a wipeout

13:00 Solihull: 28 Con ( 8 ) – 14 Green (5) – 5 LD (2) – 4 (2) Indies. Labour has no presence in here after their handful of councilors defected. The Greens in particular keep targeting this suburb to potentially deny the Tories their majority. Perhaps an anti-Tory atmosphere is what the local Greens need…

13:00 Stratford-on-Avon: 19 Con – 11 LD – 1 Green – 5 Indies. Council size to be increased by 5. This is usually safe Conservative territory. It bears interest though because redistricting has put everyone up for reelection when the Tories are facing significant headwinds, and much of the council is within Nadhim Zahawi’s constituency. Voter backlash to his actions could influence the outcome.

13:30 Burnley: 18 Lab (6) – 8 Con (2) – 8 LD (3) – 6 Green (1) – 5 Others (3). Labour have governed here for a decade. 2019 was actually a bad year comparatively for both Labour and the Conservatives. Gains for the former are possible, but they would have to come from the minor parties.

13:30 Maidstone: 28 Con (9) – 12 LD (5) – 5 Lab (1) – 1 Green – 9 Others (3). The Tories seem poised to lose majority control to NOC, but serious losses would need to occur for a non-Conservative government.

13:30 Walsall: 37 Con (13) – 22 (7) Lab – 1 Indie. Labour barely won the popular vote here in 2022, but could not register significant gains. Can they flip seats this year in this GE battleground?

14:00 Crawley: 18 Lab (7) – 17 Con (6). Labour gained control here in 2022 by a knifes edge result, so it is obviously a Tory target. However, the national political environment makes it easier for Labour to continue their advances.

14:00 Hyndburn: 16 Con (4) – 14 Lab (4) –2 Green – 5 (4) Indies. Labour’s overall total here is artificially lowered since all the Independents and Greens are defectors who have left the party. This includes the council leader. Labour will probably win an effective majority here through reabsorbing the independent wards.

14:00 Rugby: 23 Con ( 8 ) – 10 Lab (3)– 9 LD (3). This council is getting national notice as a battleground, especially after YouGov had it in their MRP, but it’s hard to see it shifting that far, Half the Tory seats are safe and rural.

14:00 Warwick: 16 Con – 9 LD – 8 Green – 5 Lab – 3 Others – 3 Indies. No party is going to win a majority in Warwick. The Incumbent Conservative’s theoretically could, but realistically they are expecting losses in the city and to be boxed out of government.

14:00 Welwyn Hatfield: 26 Con ( 8 ) – 12 LD (4) – 10 (4) Lab. The Conservatives swept the council in 2021. In 2022 they got swept by both opposition parties and almost lost control. It’s an open race for second place and council  leadership if 2023 resembles 2022.

14:30 Blackpool: 20 Lab – 13 Con – 3 Others – 6 indies. Labour won a bare majority here in 2019 but lost it to expulsions and defections. Local Labour expect to make more than enough gains to sure that majority once more.

14:30 East Cambridgeshire: 16 Con – 10 LD – 2 Indie.  The Lib-Dems made massive gains here in 2019, going from 2 seats to threatening the majority. However, they fell back in by-elections and defections. With all the coalition changes since then though the Lib-Dems are targeting a majority in this educated area.

15:00 Canterbury: 17 Con – 9 Lab – 6 LD – 1 Green – 6 Indies. While the parliamentary seat is becoming Labour territory, the wider council elected a Tory majority in 2019. Defections unmade the conservative majority and the three ‘progressive’ parties are hoping to gain seats and upend Tory dominance.
 
15:00 Darlington: 22 Con – 19 Lab – 3 LD – 2 Green – 4 Indies. Conservatives in 2019 won the council after 40 years of Labour government. They however could not entrench control because no seats were up in 2021, unlike in say Hartlepool.  Labour hope to retake the majority, though national Tories are confident local successes can blunt incoming damage. YouGov found a huge swing to Labour in their MRP.

15:00 Erewash: 26 Con – 15 Lab – 1 LD – 6 Indies. This commuter council between Derby and Nottingham already has a substantial Labour delegation thanks to their strength around Ilkeston. Labour have seen churn from by-elections and defections, but still have plenty of targets...
 
15:00 Middlesborough: 20 Lab – 3 Con – 23 Indies. 2019 saw a massive influx of independents into Middlesborough, enough to control the council without Labour. However, the relationship between the Independents and the regional mayor has drawn criticism. Labour are expecting local disdain for the Independents to be the decider here. The independent city mayor is also up and faces the same headwinds.

15:00 Milton Keynes: 22 Con ( 8 ) – 20 Lab (7) – 14 LD (5). Labour are expecting local successes to allow them to become the largest party in this GE battleground. Winning a majority though will probably require cannibalizing their local Lib-Dem allies…

15:00 Wokingham: 26 Con ( 8 ) - 23 LD ( 8 ) – 3 Lab (1) – 2 Indies (1). In both 2019 and 2022 the Conservatives got demolished by the Lib-Dems, but their decent performance in 2021 preserved control. The 2019 Tory class still though has further to fall, and the Lib-Dems are looking win the first non-Tory majority here in over 20 years.

15:30 North Hertfordshire: 19 Con (7) – 17 Lab (5) – 13 LD (6). Recent elections have seen constant Tory decline in formerly reliable territory. Labour and the Lib-Dems have governed together since 2019. The 2022 ward results suggest they will only increase their combined numbers. Look for Labour to become the largest group.

15:30 Pendle: 17 Con ( 8 ) – 10 Lab (3) – 5 LD (2) – 1 Indie. National Tories are talking up Pendle as their Northeast bastion, and it’s not hard to see why. The ground is favorable to them after in 2021 locked in Conservative councilors and a number of Blue wards that are up had solid margins of victory. Yet they still could lose control. Those wards up which aren’t safe for the Tories were won by Labour or the Lib-Dems in 2022, and the supposedly safe wards might start falling if in a Labour wave…

15:30 West Lancashire: 25 Lab – 20 Con – 7 Others – 2 Indies. Labour held up decently here during the 2021 elections, but they still lost the majority. Redistricting has put every seat up for election which should allow Labour to win back full control.

16:00 Dover: 20 Con – 11 Lab – 1 Indie. Despite the two-party topline, Labour’s previous middling result is thanks to notable opposition vote splitting. While polling does say Labour should be picking up some Tory voters here, they’ll also need tactical voter consolidation.

[Oryxslayer]

Continued:

16:00 Gravesham: 22 Lab – 21 Con – 1 Indie. Council size To be reduced by 5. Labour kept this council close and swingy over the past 15 years even as the parliamentary constituency stayed firmly with the Conservatives. Labour won a 2-seat majority in 2019, but lost it through by-elections. Even with redistricting reducing the seat count, Labour are expecting a wider majority this time around.

16:00 Great Yarmouth: 22 Con – 14 Lab – 3 Other. Labour directed all activists in Greater Norfolk/ East Anglia here. Partially this reflects local geography, partially it’s Labour considering it a viable target once more…

16:00 Mid Suffolk: 16 Con – 12 Green – 5 LD – 1 Indie. This rural, nationally conservative council may be the first in the country to elect a Green majority Ironically, they are surging here cause of NIMBY opposition, which has prompted fears over loss of greenspace.

16:00 North East Derbyshire: 26 Con – 18 Lab – 3 Lib – 6 Indies. The Conservatives took control of this council for the first time in 2019. Labour’s clear defeat here foreshadowed the GE losses. Since then, Labour have won a by-election, the Tories lost their majority to defections, and the cost-of-living crisis is giving voters a reason to return to Labour.

16:00 Redcar and Cleveland: 14 Lab – 13 LD – 6 Con – 22 Others in 3 Groups – 4 Indies. The council is currently governed by the Lib-Dems and Localists. Labour are campaigning here with an eye on the majority, perhaps because their unpopular party bosses are gone, perhaps believing the national environment can reverse losses…

16:00 Sheffield: 39 Lab (13) – 29 LD (11) – 14 Green (4) – 1 Con – 1 Indie. Similar to Hull, Sheffield is a city where the Conservatives have essentially no presence to lose in an anti-Conservative environment. Labour hope to regain their former majority, though entrenched local Greens may be harder to dislodge then certain Lib-Dems.

16:00 West Oxfordshire: 20 Con (9) – 15 LD (3) – 9 Lab (3) – 2 Green – 3 Indies (2). The Tories have collapsed hard here since Brexit, and it has been the Lib-Dems who gained. They currently lead an anyone-but-Tory coalition, to win a majority would necessitate cannibalizing said allies.  

16:00 Wirral: 25 Lab – 23 Con – 9 Green – 6 LD – 3 Indies. Labour have not gained a seat here since 2015, but still maintained control for over a decade. A switch in election policy though means all 66 councilors are up in one year from now onwards, and the environment means Labour could lock in a majority government for the next 4 years. A fair bit of churn is expected with both the greens and Labour confident of gains,  suggesting thr Conservatives might be the net losers.

16:00 Woking: 16 LD (4) – 8 Con (4) – 3 Lab (1) – 3 Indies (1). The Lib-Dems do only have a bare majority here, but unless Labour break out of their one ward and split the vote, the Lib-Dems are not likely to lose it, even with the poor state of local finances the Lib-Dems inherited from the previous Tories.

16:30 Arun: 23 Con – 17 LD – 3 Green – 1 Lab – 10 Indies. The Lib-Dems actually finished ahead of the Conservatives here in 2019, but defections and infighting gave the Conservatives control. Just repeating 2019 might put them back in contention.

16:30 Broxtowe: 19 Con – 14 Lab – 7 LD – 1 Other – 3 Indies. Traditionally a conservative council, but in 2019 an anyone-but-Tory coalition was set up with Labour at it’s head. Labour are aiming for significant gains.

16:30 Chichester: 16 Con – 10 LD – 2 Lab – 2 Green – 9 Others in two Groups – 1 Indie. Currently Tory Minority government tipped to fall to fall to true NOC, though the Lib-Dems have been pouring in resources…

16:30 Elmbridge: 15 Con – 13 LD – 19 Others in 6 Groups – 1 Indie. Esher and Walton covers much of the council so the Lib-Dems have been pouring resources in since their narrow loss in 2019. Gains were made in 2022 but the localist groups put ceiling on change.

16:30 South Oxfordshire: 13 LD – 10 Con – 5 Green – 3 Lab – 3 Others – 2 Indies. The Conservatives have only lost seats in greater Oxfordshire since the Brexit vote, mainly to the Lib Dems. 2023 will likely be no different, with the Lib Dems looking to win a majority.

16:30 Stockport: 28 LD – 22 Lab – 4 Con – 2 Green – 3 Others – 3 Indies. Labour have in the past decade led the council as a minority, but never as a majority. This isn’t the best ground for gains either: the 3 indies were former Labourites, Labour strength is concentrated, the Conservatives have nowhere to fall, and the Lib-Dems have a long-term machine in certain suburbs. But redistricting means the whole council is up for grabs…

16:30 Swindon: 33 Con (12) – 23 Lab (7) – 1 Indie. Starmer launched National Labour’s campaign in Swindon, and there’s clear reasons why. Labour won many wards and the popular vote here in 2022. If Labour were to match that result it would win control for the first time in 20 years. But Starmer clearly hopes for more than 2022.

17:00 Brighton and Hove: 20 Green – 16 Lab – 11 Con – 7 Indies. This is the Green Party’s national stronghold and one of the few places they have already led a coalition. However, Labour are energized and confident that they can get the seats necessary to topple them. Redistricting puts every seat up and Labour expects to flip Tory wards.

17;00 Cherwell: 25 Con (9) – 9 Lab (3) – 7 LD (2) – 2 Green (1)– 5 Indies (1). This is the Conservative’s last council in Oxfordshire. The Lib-Dems are looking to advance here, but coalitions will remain the only option for control.
 
17:00 Dartford: 29 Con – 7 Lab – 3 Others – 1 Green – 2 Indies. The Thames Estuary battleground council closest to London is ironically the one where Labour are in the worst position. Yet these are the type of areas where Labour expects big gains off national polling, and YouGov's MRP seems to confirm large swings in their favor...

17:00 Derby: 18 Con – 16 Lab – 8 LD – 6 RefUK – 3 Indies. Labour should advance in a place like Derby, but local issues and intrenched local machines might prevent change. Take the Reform UK councilors – some previously elected as UKIP, all coming from 2 specific wards. They have survived the collapse of their national brand by drilling down on the local. However, like in Bolton, a large national lead could wipe the local divisions aside...
 
17:00 Leicester: 37 Lab – 5 Con – 1 LD – 1 Green – 10 Indies. This is a safe Labour city in GE’s but the local party is in turmoil. Tensions between the South Asian community and the local party have flared up more than once, and the heavy-handedness of the mayor has not helped. National Labour stepped in, but many of the candidates they deselected are still running as independents. The lack of opposition and the environment may allow Labour to retain control. Also keep an eye on the mayor election for the same reasons – all candidates except Labour Incumbent Peter Soulsby desire to end the office and its concentration of power, and his strongest challengers are all of South Asian descent.

17:00 Liverpool: 61 Lab – 11 LD – 4 Green – 13 Others in 2 Groups – 1 Indie. Council being reduced to 85 seats. Liverpool has some of the safest Labour seats in a national election. Labour locally though have had serious issues with financial mismanagement, misuse of council property, bribery, and corruption to the point that nationally appointed managers had to step in. It was them who ordered redistricting and the product – going from all seats electing 3 councilors in separate cycles to electing everyone at once on a map where almost all wards are SMDs or 2MDs – seems intended to allow the electorate to punish their politicians if such things occur again.

17:00 Southampton: 26 Lab – 20 Con – 1 LD – 1 Indie. 3 seats to be added. Labour took control of the city in 2022 by sweeping almost every ward. Every ward is up thanks to redistricting. More possible than the Tories retaking control is the potential for a second Labour sweep.

18:00 Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole: 35 Con – 13 LD – 3 Lab – 2 Green – 19 Others in 4 Groups – 4 Indies. The Tory administration has faced constant criticism over its general shady tactics, unethical behavior, and financial mismanagement – issues that have led to leadership resignations. Conservative losses are expected, and the Lib-Dems have devoted resources, a split opposition points towards fragmentation and wide coalitions.  

18:00 Cheshire West and Chester: 33 Lab – 28 Con – 2 LD – 1 Green – 8 Indie. Labour had a bare majority here, but lost it to defections. With every seat up Labour are confident they will win a stable majority.

18:00 Lancaster: 16 Labour – 11 + 4 Green - 11 Con – 4 LD – 14 Others in 3 Groups. The council here covers a lot of different territory leading to the fractured council from 2019. A large alliance of Greens, the secondary Green group, Labour, and localists currently has control. The Greens are targeting council seats in urban Lancaster – under new boundaries – as they hope to truly become the largest party in a fractured coalition.

18:00 Mid Devon: 18 Con – 12 LD – 2 Green – 10 Indies. This is the council which overlaps with Tiverton and Honiton. Local politicd is messy here with the Indies trying to play one party against each other. However, the Lib Dems are working to get their one-time by-election voters into the habit of voting Lib-Dem in these locals to prepare for 2024. Complicating things is a new set of ward lines.

18:00 South Derbyshire: 16 Con – 16 Lab – 4 Indies. The Conservatives actually won a majority here in 2019. They then lost that majority to mass defections in 2021 – and then lost control of the council to Labour and the defectors. Both parties are once again attempting to win a majority on their own – Labour potentially for the first time in 2 decades.

18:00 South Ribble: 24 Lab – 21 Con – 5 LD. For a council so close to greater Manchester you would think Labour would have won a majority more times than once in the last 50 years. Labour now though are in a position to transform their minority into a majority. Two Tory councilors defected to Labour before the elections.

18:00 Thanet: 25 Con – 15 Lab – 5 Green – 7 others – 4 Indies. The once-majority UKIP council collapsed in 2019 with both Labour and the Conservatives making double digit gains. Thanet's seemingly common local defections and readmissions of councilors though have shifted the seat totals since then. Theoretically though this council should be good for Labour this year just like the rest of coastal urban and suburban Kent.

18:00 West Berkshire: 24 Con – 16 LD – 3 Green. The Lib Dems surged here in 2019, transforming what was an almost entirely Blue council to a marginal one. Now the Lib-Dems are looking to win a majority of their own.  

19:00 Amber Valley: 24 Con – 10 Lab – 5 Reform UK – 3 Green – 2 Others – 1 Indie. The Full council is up thanks to redistricting, though it is to be reduced from 45 to 42 seats. Labour are presently at a historic low. However, the council is getting attention as a potential battleground since every councilor being forced to stand after redistricting offers Labour a unique opportunity for a comeback, and the Tory’s have seen defections to Reform UK.

19:00 Bedford: 15 LD – 11 Lab – 11 Con – 2 Green – 1 Indie. Currently led by an anti-Tory coalition. Redistricting has reconfigured the wards here and forced everyone to stand at once, but can any party win a majority?

19:30 Cheshire East: 31 Con – 25 Lab – 4 LD – 19 others in 2 Groups – 3 Indies. Historically a Conservative council, but after 2019 Labour’s gains allowed them to form a coalition with local independents. Now with every seat once again up, can Labour make a play for majority?

20:00 York: 21 LD – 17 Lab – 4 Green – 2 Con – 3 Indies. York in 2019 was neatly divided between the Greens in the student wards, Labour in the city, and the Lib-Dems in the suburban ring around the city. The unpopularity of the preceding Conservative administration allowed all other parties to make gains, but especially the Lib Dems who displaced almost every suburban Conservative. Since then, the Lib-Dems and Greens have governed. Can the Lib-Dems complete their suburban sweep, or will a growing Labour or potentially rebounding Tories encroach on the suburban wards?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1654155961106419717?s=20

tl;dr it's bad for the Tories everywhere and the Lib Dems in particular seem to be doing well.  

Time to overinterpret anecdotes!

South Gloucester is expected, see above and how I mentioned there was so many Lab-Con close wards in suburban Bristol last time. The Lib-dem activism might not bear fruit, or it might and make things messy three ways, or it might lead to tactical voting depending on the wards - the Lib-dems have their own targets,

South Essex region: Also expected, this place has a lot of strong localists in the councils I didn't mention above. Also probably a loss of Brentwood to the Lib Dems.

Keighley: Part of Bradford council which is safe Labour. However, the Keighley wards in particular are usually a mixed bag, and they obviously matter in GE's given the Westminster seat here has recently been swingy. However, this is an area which should be falling to Labour if her polling lead was less than half of the current numbers, so the statement is not surprising.

South West Bedfordshire: Demographically similar to neighboring parts of Hertfordshire, which have both become good for the Lib-Dems recently and are expected to get better. However the Central Bedfordshire council the report is probably coming from should be safe Tory even if it falls to Minority given all the Independents.

Canterbury: Not surprising whatsoever. Had the pleasure of actually chatting with Multiple Labour candidates here through the New Statesman streams and they all mentioned how the local Tory administration's reputation was coming up. The coalition outcome is also unsuprising, given multiple party stronghold wards.

Guildford, South Oxfordshire, and Poole: Not too surprising. As I mentioned above, all recent elections suggest it's bad to be a Tory Candidate in Oxfordshire, and it's the Lib-Dem's who will take your seat. Guildford is notable because only a handful of councilors are not in a localist group or the Lib Dems, who are in coalition one the largest of the groups. I didn't mention it above because it seemed likely that said situation would continue, even with a bit of churn. But maybe the Lib-Dems are hoping for big gains? Finally Poole. I did talk about Bournemouth, Christchurch, and Poole and how the local Tories have made a mess of their reputation, with the Lib-Dems as the largest opposition. However local results pointed towards ward flips going everywhere given all the localists and smaller groupings in the mix. Maybe the Lib-Dems feel they are getting a significant chunk of that swing...

Stoke-on-Trent: Expected, National Labour made this a make-or-break council with how many people and resources sent, and as I mentioned above, something would have to be really off for voters not to return Labour as the largest party here at least.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC results map when it becomes relevant

[Oryxslayer]

Small drop in the Tory vote, nothing too catastrophic. Caution, the first (?) Sunderland result to declare last year was relatively good for Labour (as in not just minimal losses), so obviously need to see more.

This was one of the expected Sunderland gains, since they win it last year and the state of the opposition wasn't perfect. This is the ward where the guy elected as UKIP became tory I believe. I'm more interested in the Lib-Dem or Tory wards, and just how many fall.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1654251849464070145?s=20

First Lib-Dem ward.

[Oryxslayer]

First non-Sunderland result is from safe-Labour urban Halton.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC's coverage is live.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have gained the Barnes ward in Sunderland, which is a relatively notable result to the extent that individual ward results can be.

Off the Tories, and so the fun begins.

[Oryxslayer]

Lib Dems make their first gain of the night - Fulwell in Sunderland from the Tories.

The Lib-dems won it in 2022, but this was once one of the few wards where the Tories won pre-brexit. Huge swing to them and a 10% drop in Labour vote, so tactical voting perhaps...

[Oryxslayer]

Broxborne declared no changes in seats in very safe blue turf.

[Oryxslayer]

[Oryxslayer]

Lib-Dems already flipping seats in Brentwood.