2023 UK Local Elections

[Blair]

Only a mere 5 months away.

[Blair]

Some briefing that allies of Bojo will use a bad result for Sunak in May as a way of launching a leadership challenge.

I'm not really sure what a bad result would look like for the Tories?

[Blair]

Are there any guesses what the headline councils will be?

I did love how in 2022 the Tories really seemed to brief heavily about Sunderland and iirc ended up doing awfully.

It was a very weird election in hindsight- it was an bad result for them yet they tried to pretend it was great. They were very lucky to pick up two London councils thanks to Labour local Govt incompetence!

[Blair]

Yeah young people will have a reason to need a form of ID e.g to buy alcohol or enter clubs, and they will have the capacity to get a new one.

The people I know who don’t have ID are elderly family members who don’t have a passport anymore and didn’t renew their driving license.

[Blair]

It is going to be an absolute disaster mainly because it will change the tone of U.K. polling stations yet the weird public discourse around this has not meant there’s a huge backlash- a lot of people falsely think you need photo ID to pick up a parcel.

[Blair]

It happens every year but the coverage seems very underwhelming- I guess a function of local papers getting hollowed out & a lack of quality regional news sources, along with the depressing fact most people in Westminster don't really understand local politics outside of London, or other big cities.

[Blair]

In rather lol news the Tories launched their local election campaign without any one noticing.

And have now briefed against Starmer for launching his when the King was speaking... in Germany.

[Blair]

What councils will people be looking out for results wise?

[Blair]

I feel like virtually every local election I've followed has had the 'Tories will lose 1000 councillors’ briefed and then included in headlines.

The article then mentions it's an inflated figure yet no doubt when they lose 700 seats it will be billed as a good night for them.

I'm still angry at how last year was somehow seen as a good result!

[Blair]

People are moaning that Labour are talking about the NHS and say they should focus on ‘local issues that councils control’- yet these are the same people who would ofc criticise anything vaguely radical at a local level and attack it as wasteful.

[Blair]

They’re largely powerless and have to follow strict rules where they do have powers (see planning and social services spending) Unlike other nations they don’t have control over education or policing.


On another note It should be compulsory for everyone in U.K. politics to talk to a truly normal person (no not your parents who subscribe to the Times) about local government- most people don’t know the difference between their directly elected ward councillors and the local council, let alone the bizarre way that council tax is increased, or how planning law works- you often see people referring to powers local councils haven’t had for decades! (E.g building control)

I commented on the other U.K. page but it seems very much like moving around armies than don’t exist when both parties talk about local councils- we have at least 3(?) who are bankrupt and several others that would be classed as failed states if they were countries.

[Blair]

Speaking of Liverpool, a bit of unpleasantness in Garston.

(Cllr Gorst was elected as a Labour councillor in 2019, but is now standing for the Liverpool Community Independents, who describe themselves as "a new group of independent socialists".)

Apparently some LibDems aren't happy at this expression of unhappiness.

(basically, they think he deserves it and then some)

It is the type of hard hitting campaigning a lot of them use to and still do practice.

An interesting aside is the there's essentially (barring some 2019 flare ups) been an 8 year truce between Labour & the Lib Dems- they use to run very vicious campaigns against each other.

[Blair]

Redcar is a particularly weird council. I think it's a liberal & independent coalition; with Labour in third, but it appears to be one of those places were the previous Labour council imploded due to a feud.

[Blair]

There's something about Labour politics in the North-East isn't there?

[Blair]

The coverage this year seems very weak- I haven’t even seen many fabled vox pops with pensioners and butchers (the only people out at 10am)!

I assume because none of the cities are up the media are struggling to work out what to actually report on- other than the stupid ‘1,000 Tory losses’ which gets written up even when they tell you in the next breath it’s part of the spin…

[Blair]

Forgot to add the key word that was metro mayors!

One thing to note is that the Conservatives will be much more vulnerable to losses vs. Labour than anyone else as the main feature of the (very odd!) 2019 locals was that the two big parties performed terribly against smaller parties and independents while holding up reasonably well against each other, with a small number of exceptions here and there.

My reading of last years locals and the one before was that the Liberals and greens were much more effective at picking up seats off the Conservatives but equally voters were becoming a lot more tactical- these two factors plus a stronger Labour lead could all prove difficult bordering on awful for the Conservatives.

[Blair]

A sign of the times is that last year the Tories were briefing they would win Sunderland last year and now labour appear set to increase their majority.

[Blair]

I can’t find the quote but the Tories are having a very funny wobble at getting called out over their stupid expectations predictions.

[Blair]

It's also weird how much we focus on the numbers when everyone always gets pulled in by the shiny lights e.g those councils who declare first.

It's a complete guess but they could do relatively ok on headline numbers and still lose a good chunk of councils including those mirroring key likely marginals but there's a very weird failure to even understand local government.

Even the obsession with 'well these are actually elections about bins' annoys me because your council will provide a lot more important services than bin collection e.g health & safety inspections, care for children with additional needs up to aged 25, local school oversight, support for refugees and a whole host of things you don't often realise until it goes wrong (see flood defence planning in London)

[Blair]

If they lose 2000 seats, the only conclusion we can draw is that the Tories are heading towards an extinction level event. (I.e. don't get your hopes up).

It is hilarious on reflection that there was a time when they expected to use said result to hope Prime Minister Truss resigned. A shame she didn’t say as they honestly could have lost that many under her.

[Blair]

Are there any councils declaring in the first 12 hours that will set the pigeons?

I’ve given up on planning how to follow the results- last years guide was completely wrong

[Blair]

The interesting thing will be how much Sunak has contained the tactical voting iceberg that emerged under Johnson; all the evidence over the last two years has been pointing one way!

[Blair]

Looking back at old results is there a reason why New Labour seemed to lose a higher amount of councillors than the Conservatives did in 2010-2020- I assume events and the fact they had a very high starting point.

[Blair]

Looking forward to Woke on Trent going labour.

[Blair]

V confused why I woke up to coverage suggesting Labour isn’t doing this well….