Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

I highly doubt this. Contested water crossings are some of the hardest military operations to conduct. I agree with the below comment that Ukrainian troop movements or deployments in the area could be a feint for an offensive in Zaporizhia and/or Southern Donetsk.

Rest of tweet: "...of logistics. They only don't know if this will be the main or a distracting strike.

Not an opsec concern - if a public Russian channel knows it, their command does too (or he could be totally lying)."

https://twitter.com/Incogni987/status/1640831648664043521?s=20

[Storr]

Interestingly: "Sergey Valeriyovych Atroshchenko, born on May 5, 1981...in Ovruch, Zhytomyr Region, Ukraine."

There are several Russian leaders and other public figures who were born in Ukraine. But most were born to Russians stationed/living in Ukraine during the Soviet era or were from Southern/Eastern Ukraine. This dude, based on his surname and location of birth, appears to be an exception. Two other exceptions are the Chair of the Russian Federation Council, Valentina Matviyenko (née Tyutina), born on April 7, 1949 in Shepetivka, Kamianets-Podilskyi Oblast (now Khmelnytskyi Oblast), Ukraine and infamous oligarch Mikhail Fridman, born April 21, 1964 in Lviv, Lviv Oblast, Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1640751734053040128?s=20

[NOVA Green]

I highly doubt this. Contested water crossings are some of the hardest military operations to conduct. I agree with the below comment that Ukrainian troop movements or deployments in the area could be a feint for an offensive in Zaporizhia and/or Southern Donetsk.

Rest of tweet: "...of logistics. They only don't know if this will be the main or a distracting strike.

Not an opsec concern - if a public Russian channel knows it, their command does too (or he could be totally lying)."

https://twitter.com/Incogni987/status/1640831648664043521?s=20

I could see some type of amphibious activity around the Kinburn Spit.

It's not like this hasn't been mooted before as well as discussed in MSM over the past 4-5 months or so.

[NOVA Green]

I have a medium confidence interval that we might have a poster show up to rebut the Wall Street Journal articles report regarding the state of the Russian economy both in current and future trajectories.

Much more in the article by trying to keep my quoting within reasonable limits.

Regardless WSJ's lead World story Headline is:

Russia's Economy is Starting to Come Undone

The WSJ Deck or Drop head reads:

Investment is down, labor is scarce, budget is squeezed. Oligarch: ‘There will be no money next year’

The opening months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year drove an increase in oil and natural-gas prices that brought a windfall for Moscow. Those days are over.

The country’s biggest exports, gas and oil, have lost major customers. Government finances are strained. The ruble is down over 20% since November against the dollar. The labor force has shrunk as young people are sent to the front or flee the country over fears of being drafted. Uncertainty has curbed business investment.

There is no sign the economic difficulties are bad enough to pose a short-term threat to Russia’s ability to wage war. But state revenue shortfalls suggest an intensifying dilemma over how to reconcile ballooning military expenditures with the subsidies and social spending that have helped President Vladimir Putin shield civilians from hardship.

Gas exports to Europe didn’t start tailing off until last summer. The EU’s ban on Russian seaborne oil and a Group of Seven price cap began to take effect only in December. Sanctions on oil products such as diesel took effect last month. These delays kept energy revenue up and helped the government unleash a huge fiscal stimulus of around 4% of GDP in 2022, according to the IMF.

In January and February of this year, however, oil and gas tax revenue, which accounts for nearly half of total budget revenue, fell by 46% year-over-year, while state spending jumped more than 50%.

Analysts estimate that Russia’s fiscal break-even oil price—what it would need to balance its books—has swelled to over $100 a barrel as war spending weighs on the budget.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-economy-is-starting-to-come-undone-431a2878?mod=hp_lead_pos5

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1640263676048359425?s=20

[tweet snip]

Update:
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1640692255982866432?s=20

[Storr]

UK Challenger tanks and some German Leopard 2 tanks have already arrived in Ukraine.

Germany delivered 18 promised Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said in a news conference on Monday, a highly anticipated delivery of advanced equipment from the West ahead of an expected spring offensive. Ukraine’s defense minister said British Challenger 2 tanks — 14 have been promised — had also begun to arrive. More tanks are expected from other NATO nations, including the United States.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/27/world/europe/un-ukraine-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant.html

It has also now been confirmed (by the Ukrainian government) that the 40 Marder IFVs have also arrived to the country.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1640458286838476800?t=p7UDzpNSN1YJIcXh7O-7...

A soldier's sense of humor is never satiated:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1640744321103060998?s=20

[Damocles]

snip

The spirit of Josef Gabcik and Jan Kubis lives on.

[Woody]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-russia-putin-bakhmut-2334ec3a5b74d3cc3c4e012db71920e5

If Bakhmut fell to Russian forces, their president, Vladimir Putin, would “sell this victory to the West, to his society, to China, to Iran,” Zelenskyy said in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press.

“If he will feel some blood — smell that we are weak — he will push, push, push,” Zelenskyy said in English, which he used for virtually all of the interview.

“The United States really understands that if they stop helping us, we will not win,” he said in the interview. He sipped tea as he sat on a narrow bed in the cramped, unadorned sleeper cabin on a state railway train.

Zelensky’s comments were an acknowledgement that losing the 7-month-long battle for Bakhmut — the longest of the war thus far — would be more of a costly political defeat than a tactical one.

He predicted that the pressure from a defeat in Bakhmut would come quickly — both from the international community and within his own country. “Our society will feel tired,” he said. “Our society will push me to have compromise with them.”

[Woody]

Moment of truth soon. State of the art NATO weaponry and vehicles are in Ukraine now, soon to be deployed to the battlefield. There is now pressure on the Ukrainian Army to break Russian lines/make advances in the near future, as Western arsenals have significantly invested into this:

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1640650785661894657
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1640715387351478276
https://twitter.com/ChallengerInUA/status/1641008891709251584

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Moment of truth soon. State of the art NATO weaponry and vehicles are in Ukraine now, soon to be deployed to the battlefield. There is now pressure on the Ukrainian Army to break Russian lines/make advances in the near future, as Western arsenals have significantly invested into this:

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1640650785661894657
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1640715387351478276
https://twitter.com/ChallengerInUA/status/1641008891709251584

"State-of-the-art" is putting it a bit strongly when it comes to the tanks/IFVs (although they may not ever receive more than symbolic amounts of modern gear in certain respects).  

The biggest difference having e.g. an 80s-era Leopard 2A4 will make is quantitative: it is much better than not having a tank. The Turkish fiascos in Northern Syria proved such weapons are not immune to destruction because of anti-tank missiles or military incompetence.

[dead0man]

A soldier's sense of humor is never satiated:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1640744321103060998?s=20

this made me wonder "do tanks have odometers?", Google isn't being helpful.  I know boats and planes have a Hobbs Meter to show maintainers how long the engine has run and kind of assumed tanks would be the same...but thinking about it more, the maintainers are going to want to know how many miles are on the running gear as much (possibly more?) than they would the engine.

[jaichind]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

[Cassius]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

Another day, another libertarian advocating the restoration of liberum veto. Honestly surprised they didn’t just wait until April 1st to publish this.

Edit: Wait a moment, Rohač actually has written an article defending liberum veto.

[Damocles]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

Cleave off the Kaliningrad Oblast and make it a joint Polish-Lithuanian condominium. Two presidents serving as joint heads of state, one each appointed by the respective parliaments, and a local unicameral legislature elected according to EU transparency and accountability standards by party-list proportional representation.

[Estrella]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

Cleave off the Kaliningrad Oblast and make it a joint Polish-Lithuanian condominium. Two presidents serving as joint heads of state, one each appointed by the respective parliaments, and a local unicameral legislature elected according to EU transparency and accountability standards by party-list proportional representation.

Excuse me, but Kaliningrad is rightful Czech territory.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1641047821007634432

[Lord Halifax]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/

"It’s Time to Bring Back the Polish-Lithuanian Union"

Foreign Policy magazine article on bringing back the Polish-Lithuanian as a counterweight to Russia. Note that the old Polish-Lithuanian did include Western Ukraine which was part of interwar Poland until it was annexed to Ukraine SSR after the 1939 Germany-USSR deal and confirmed after WWII.

Cleave off the Kaliningrad Oblast and make it a joint Polish-Lithuanian condominium. Two presidents serving as joint heads of state, one each appointed by the respective parliaments, and a local unicameral legislature elected according to EU transparency and accountability standards by party-list proportional representation.

They should go full Andorra and make the Archbishop of Białystok and the President of Lithuania co-princes.

[Storr]

"The person said Putin did not appear to be reconsidering the conflict despite the heavy losses and setbacks of the last year. The diplomat noted that the Russian president was a former KGB operative and said they are trained to always continue to pursue their objectives, rather than reassessing the goals in the first place."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1640804621299113984?s=20

[Person Man]

"The person said Putin did not appear to be reconsidering the conflict despite the heavy losses and setbacks of the last year. The diplomat noted that the Russian president was a former KGB operative and said they are trained to always continue to pursue their objectives, rather than reassessing the goals in the first place."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1640804621299113984?s=20

Is that his training or mental illness?

[jaichind]

Liveuamap for Bakhmut seems to indicate that the Russians are very close to closing the last road into the city center

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"The person said Putin did not appear to be reconsidering the conflict despite the heavy losses and setbacks of the last year. The diplomat noted that the Russian president was a former KGB operative and said they are trained to always continue to pursue their objectives, rather than reassessing the goals in the first place."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1640804621299113984?s=20

Is that his training or mental illness?

It's just his tendency to procrastinate. Any realistic end to the war represents a shift from the status quo which carries a risk to his position as president. He may prefer to simply run the clock until he dies or a much more favourable outcome somehow presents itself.

[2952-0-0]

"The person said Putin did not appear to be reconsidering the conflict despite the heavy losses and setbacks of the last year. The diplomat noted that the Russian president was a former KGB operative and said they are trained to always continue to pursue their objectives, rather than reassessing the goals in the first place."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1640804621299113984?s=20

Is that his training or mental illness?

It's just his tendency to procrastinate. Any realistic end to the war represents a shift from the status quo which carries a risk to his position as president. He may prefer to simply run the clock until he dies or a much more favourable outcome somehow presents itself.

I've personally believed for a while that while Putin initially wanted to blitzkrieg Ukraine, his failure to do so made him shift the purpose of the war from a means to an end, to as an end to itself. It now exists just for his own power, with whatever happening in the Donbass or Zaporizhzhia unimportant. Even if the Russians are pushed back to the pre-2014 borders, Putin will continue the "special military operation", which would consist of a steady stream of skirmishes along the border that are staged for performative purposes. Maybe he will also order "Ukrainian" missile strikes against apartment blocks inside Russia, like what occurred shortly before he came to power. But he doesn't need to "win" the war in order to achieve his objectives.

[NOVA Green]

Germany moving towards long term military aid to Ukraine:

In Germany, a parliamentary panel passed a spending bill on Wednesday that includes 8 billion euros — about $8.6 billion — in military aid to Ukraine to be spent over the next decade for weapons, munitions and supplies to help it defend itself against Russia.

Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister, called the aid package “a very, very important step to show how serious we are about our long-term commitment to Ukraine in their fight against Putin.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/world/europe/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-fighting.html

[NOVA Green]

Luke Skywalker has a new role in the existential struggle occurring after the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine.

Alerting residents of incoming Russian air based attacks:

Mark Hamill, best known as Luke Skywalker from the Star Wars movies, has lent his famous voice to a popular Ukrainian air raid alert app, joining a growing list of celebrities to support the embattled nation.

“Attention. Air raid alert,” Hamill’s voice booms when the country’s defense system detects a threat of aerial strikes by Russia. “Proceed to the nearest shelter.”

To those who might not heed the warning immediately, Hamill goes on: “Don’t be careless. Your overconfidence is your weakness,” a nod to a Skywalker line from “Return of the Jedi.”

Once the danger has passed, Hamill returns to announce the alert is over, adding: “May the force be with you.”

The app is available for users on Apple and Android devices.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/mark-hamill-ukraine-air-raid-alert/

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wgdunlop/status/1641145262209892614
https://mobile.twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1641211884194897920