The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Holmes]

I mean, Hochul and Critz won special elections in McCain districts in 2010, but so did Djou in Hawaii. So really special elections are more often than not their own special things and I wouldn't read much into them for guessing the national mood in 2018.

[Holmes]

It's probably just noise. It's a daiily tracking poll after all.

[Holmes]

Interestingly, the poll from Maryland shows he has an approval rating among Republicans in that state of 71% and an approval rating among all voters of 29%. I'm now very curious what Trump's total approval rating is in Florida, where only 67% of Republicans support him.

Well Florida does have more Republicans but also Dixiecrats. I'd say I his approval is near the national average.

[Holmes]

Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.

[Holmes]

Gen Z will be more non-white than Millennials fwiw.

Most of the non-white growth has been Hispanic though from Central American Countries. Black and Asian Populations haven't grown that much as a % of the US Population as Hispanics have the past 35-40 years.

It'll still be more non-white.

[Holmes]

Trump plummets to 37/58 in Gallup. A new low.

It's probably just noise, but wow!  I don't think Obama ever dropped that low, and we're less than two months into Trump's administration.

Maybe. But what's different is that Trump is now (50+ days later) pushing for policy with health care and his budget. It's unpopular and maybe some "give him a chance" people are bailing.

[Holmes]

Yeah, if there's an economic downturn before the midterms or 2020, it'll be a massacre.

[Holmes]

A SurveyUSA poll of NY's 2nd CD:

43% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

This is a district Trump won by 9.1%. That poll also shows Peter King is beyond safe.

Respondents be like "who the hell is Mike Sax?"

Interesting that 44% say it's time for someone new and 46% say to re-elect King. He's pretty popular and represents the district well so I would've expected the gap to be wider. Ultimately I'd expect this district and NY-11 to be among Trump's most favorable districts in the state.

[Holmes]

I'm sry curious as to how iCitizen defines its regions. Their latest poll says the West Coast (not the west in general) is his best region, more than the South.

[Holmes]

Siena poll of New York:

33% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

Looks like he still has room to decline in NYC.

[Holmes]

Siena poll of New York:

33% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

Looks like he still has room to decline in NYC.

NY seems to be one of the few states where he has a higher favorability than approval, although that trend seems to exist more Upstate. His approval rating is:

10% Excellent
16% Good
14% Fair
57% Poor

That's rough.

I guess higher favorables makes sense considering it's his home state, though I don't think it'll matter come election time considering he splits his time between DC and Florida and Melania is costing taxpayers millions.

[Holmes]

Well Ipsos sucks.

[Holmes]

New York - Quinnipiac:

Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 67%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ny/ny03292017_Nt34fmbx.pdf/

Matches the Siena poll.

[Holmes]

Please someone explain to me how a President who has approvals between 35% and 43% can effectively govern when his own party can't even pass his legislation?

Seems to me we have a lame duck President here.

And this is at the beginning of his term with a good economy. If there is any economic downturn, that high disapproval rate will solidify and tumble more.

[Holmes]

So basically with Gallup it's this?

Remove MS, LA, TN and maybe ID, yeah.

[Holmes]

Yeah it was quite clearly an approval map, but with the right candidate and a similar approval rating, I could see Kansas going Democratic. Certainly before Missouri or Indiana.

[Holmes]

It's just a stupid map based off a stupid poll.

[Holmes]

Below 30% in Democratic states, above 40% in Republican states, and in the 30's everywhere else.

[Holmes]

So according to Gallup, the strike was a zero sum event for his approvals. Too bad for him.

[Holmes]

Rasmussen:

Approve 44% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

Maybe just noise? Regardless, it's important to remember how dangerously short the attention span of the American electorate is.

True. An air strike might make him more popular short term (unfortunately) but things like Trumpcare are baked in. It was the same for Obama.

[Holmes]

Colorado has a pretty equal D/R/I registration spread right? So -77 D, +74 R and -13 I wouldn't give just -2% unless there's some serious pro-rated weighing.

[Holmes]

A 2:1 ratio between strongly disapprove and strongly approve, and a D+16 in the generic congressional ballot, all before the Comey firing. Hmm.

[Holmes]

WaPo-GMU poll of registered voters in Virginia:

36% Approve
60% Disapprove

Ouch.

[Holmes]

That's a big discrepancy between 18-34 years old and 35-44 year olds.