How did NCAA Division II college cities vote in 2016 and 2020?

[Sailor Haumea]

Following up on the threads about how NCAA Division I college cities voted in 2016 and 2020, anyone wanna try calculating 2016 and 2020 results for cities with Division II cities?:

California Collegiate Athletic

Arcata, CA
Carson, CA
Chico, CA
Hayward, CA
Los Angeles, CA
Pomona, CA
Rohnert Park, CA
San Bernadino, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Marcos, CA
Seaside, CA
Turlock, CA

Central Atlantic Collegiate

Waterbury, CT
New Castle, DE
Pike Creek Valley, DE
Bloomfield, NJ
Caldwell, NJ
Lakewood, NJ
Rutherford, NJ
Nyack, NY
Orangeburg, NY
Philadelphia, PA

Central Intercollegiate Athletic

Bowie, MD
Bronxville, NY
Charlotte, NC
Elizabeth City, NC
Fayetteville, NC
Raleigh, NC
Salisbury, NC
Winston-Salem, NC
Oxford, PA
Orangeburg, SC
Ettick, VA
Richmond, VA

Conference Carolinas

Franklin Springs, GA
Banner Elk, NC
Belmont, NC
Mount Olive, NC
Murfreesboro, NC
Pembroke, NC
Wilson, NC
Central, SC
Due West, SC
Florence, SC
Spartanburg, SC
Tigerville, SC
Bristol, TN

East Coast

Bridgeport, CT
Washington, DC
Amherst, NY
Buffalo, NY
Dobbs Ferry, NY
Flushing, NY
North Chili, NY
Old Westbury, NY
Rockville Centre, NY
Sparkill, NY

Great American

Arkadelphia, AR
Magnolia, AR
Monticello, AR
Russellville, AR
Searcy, AR
Ada, OK
Alva, OK
Bethany, OK
Durant, OK
Shawnee, OK
Weatherford, OK

Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic

Hammond, IN
Allendale, MI
Big Rapids, MI
Detroit, MI
Grand Rapids, MI
Houghton, MI
Marquette, MI
Midland, MI
Sault Ste. Marie, MI
University Center, MI
Kenosha, WI

Great Lakes Valley

Lebanon, IL
Quincy, IL
Romeoville, IL
Springfield, IL
Evansville, IN
Indianapolis, IN
Bolivar, MO
Kansas City, MO
Kirksville, MO
Liberty, MO
Rolla, MO
St. Charles, MO
St. Louis, MO
Springfield, MO

Great Midwest Athletic

Owensboro, KY
Hillsdale, MI
Ashland, OH
Canton, OH
Cedarville, OH
Columbus, OH
Findlay, OH
North Canton, OH
Painesville, OH
Pepper Pike, OH
Tiffin, OH
Nashville, TN
Vienna, WV

Great Northwest Athletic

Anchorage, AK
College, AK
Nampa, ID
Billings, MT
Monmouth, OR
Bellingham, WA
Ellensburg, WA
Lacey, WA
Seattle, WA

Gulf South

Huntsville, AL
Livingston, AL
Montevallo, AL
Montgomery, AL
Pensacola, FL
Carrollton, GA
Rome, GA
Valdosta, GA
Cleveland, MS
Clinton, MS
Cleveland, TN
Jackson, TN
Memphis, TN

Independent

Bluefield, WV
Salem, WV

Lone Star

Fort Smith, AR
Portales, NM
Silver City, NM
Lawton, OK
Oklahoma City, OK
Austin, TX
Canyon, TX
Commerce, TX
Dallas, TX
Denton, TX
Kingsville, TX
Laredo, TX
Lubbock, TX
Odessa, TX
San Angelo, TX
San Antonio, TX
Tyler, TX
Wichita Falls, TX

Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletics

Emporia, KS
Hays, KS
Pittsburg, KS
Topeka, KS
Wichita, KS
Jefferson City, MO
Joplin, MO
Maryville, MO
St. Joseph, MO
Warrensburg, MO
Kearney, NE
Claremore, OK
Edmond, OK
Tahlequah, OK

Mountain East

Frostburg, MD
South Euclid, OH
Athens, WV
Buckhannon, WV
Charleston, WV
Elkins, WV
Fairmont, WV
Glenville, WV
Institute, WV
Philippi, WV
West Liberty, WV
Wheeling, WV

Northeast-10

New Haven, CT
West Haven, CT
Easton, MA
Springfield, MA
Waltham, MA
Worcester, MA
Goffstown, NH
Manchester, NH
Rindge, NH
Albany, NY
Garden City, NY
Pleasantville, NY
Syracuse, NY
Colchester, VT

Northern Sun Intercollegiate

Fayette, IA
Bemidji, MN
Crookston, MN
Duluth, MN
Mankato, MN
Marshall, MN
Moorhead, MN
St. Cloud, MN
St. Paul, MN
Winona, MN
Wayne, NE
Bismarck, ND
Minot, ND
Aberdeen, SD
Sioux Falls, SD

Pacific West

Azusa, CA
Fresno, CA
Irvine, CA
La Mirada, CA
Oakland, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Rafael, CA
Hilo, HI
Honolulu, HI

Peach Belt

St. Augustine, FL
Americus, GA
Augusta, GA
Columbus, GA
Dahlonega, GA
Milledgeville, GA
Morrow, GA
Young Harris, GA
Aiken, SC
Greenwood, SC

Pennsylvania State Athletic

Bloomsburg, PA
California, PA
Clarion, PA
East Stroudsburg, PA
Edinboro, PA
Erie, PA
Greensburg, PA
Indiana, PA
Johnstown, PA
Kutztown, PA
Lock Haven, PA
Mansfield, PA
Millersville, PA
Shippensburg, PA
Slippery Rock, PA
West Chester, PA
Shepherdstown, WV

Rocky Mountain Athletic

Alamosa, CO
Colorado Springs, CO
Denver, CO
Durango, CO
Golden, CO
Grand Junction, CO
Gunnison, CO
Lakewood, CO
Pueblo, CO
Chadron, NE
Las Vegas, NM
Rapid City, SD
Spearfish, SD
Salt Lake City, UT

South Atlantic

Charlotte, NC
Hickory, NC
Mars Hill, NC
Salisbury, NC
Wingate, NC
Anderson, SC
Gaffney, SC
Hartsville, SC
Newberry, SC
Harrogate, TN
Jefferson City, TN
Emory, VA
Wise, VA

Southern Intercollegiate Athletic

Fairfield, AL
Mobile, AL
Tuskegee, AL
Jacksonville, FL
Albany, GA
Atlanta, GA
Augusta, GA
Fort Valley, GA
Savannah, GA
Frankfort, KY
Wilberforce, OH
Columbia, SC
Jackson, TN
Memphis, TN

Sunshine State

Boca Raton, FL
Davie, FL
Daytona Beach, FL
Lakeland, FL
Melbourne, FL
Miami, FL
St. Leo, FL
St. Petersburg, FL
Tampa, FL
West Palm Beach, FL
Winter Park, FL

[Sailor Haumea]

I have some of them already calculated:

Charlotte, NC

2020: Biden 70.23%, Trump 28.11%

Seattle, WA

2020: Biden 88.45%, Trump 9.11%

Oklahoma City, OK

2016: Trump 52.09%, Clinton 40.61%
2020: Trump 50.01%, Biden 47.25%

Atlanta, GA

2016: Clinton 80.07%, Trump 16.34%

Colorado Springs, CO

2016: Trump 53.01%, Clinton 36.71%
2020: Trump 50.35%, Biden 46.40%

Oakland, CA

2016: Clinton 88.03%, Trump 4.69%
2020: Biden 90.98%, Trump 6.91%

Wichita, KS

2016: Trump 49.90%, Clinton 40.70%
2020: Trump 49.47%, Biden 47.56%

Anchorage, AK

2016: Trump 46.91%, Clinton 41.56%
2020: Biden 48.95%, Trump 46.91%

Edmond, OK

2020: Trump 61.74%, Biden 35.52%

Lawton, OK

2020: Trump 50.31%, Biden 46.63%

Shawnee, OK

2020: Trump 64.25%, Biden 32.87%

[NOVA Green]

Great Northwest Athletic

Anchorage, AK
College, AK
Nampa, ID
Billings, MT
Monmouth, OR
Bellingham, WA
Ellensburg, WA
Lacey, WA
Seattle, WA

Monmouth, Oregon

2020 GE PRES:

Biden:           2,644      (56.8%)        +18.2% Biden        (+0.7% Biden Swing)
Trump:          1,795      (38.6%)
Misc:               215       (4.6%)
Total:            4,654                          +15.6% increase TV 2016 > 2020

2016 GE PRES:

HRC:            2,073       (51.5%)        +17.5% HRC     
Trump:         1,371       (34.0%)
Misc:              583        (14.5%)
Total:           4,027

There is only one precinct in Monmouth, but the relatively low swings from '16 > '20 makes one wonder if a reduced student population at Western Oregon University and / or COVID-19 related College Student unemployment here may have contributed.

[Sailor Haumea]

Great Northwest Athletic

Anchorage, AK
College, AK
Nampa, ID
Billings, MT
Monmouth, OR
Bellingham, WA
Ellensburg, WA
Lacey, WA
Seattle, WA

Monmouth, Oregon

2020 GE PRES:

Biden:           2,644      (56.8%)        +18.2% Biden        (+0.7% Biden Swing)
Trump:          1,795      (38.6%)
Misc:               215       (4.6%)
Total:            4,654                          +15.6% increase TV 2016 > 2020

2016 GE PRES:

HRC:            2,073       (51.5%)        +17.5% HRC     
Trump:         1,371       (34.0%)
Misc:              583        (14.5%)
Total:           4,027

There is only one precinct in Monmouth, but the relatively low swings from '16 > '20 makes one wonder if a reduced student population at Western Oregon University and / or COVID-19 related College Student unemployment here may have contributed.

Would be curious about how its twin city, Independence, voted.

[NOVA Green]

Great Northwest Athletic

Anchorage, AK
College, AK
Nampa, ID
Billings, MT
Monmouth, OR
Bellingham, WA
Ellensburg, WA
Lacey, WA
Seattle, WA

Monmouth, Oregon

2020 GE PRES:

Biden:           2,644      (56.8%)        +18.2% Biden        (+0.7% Biden Swing)
Trump:          1,795      (38.6%)
Misc:               215       (4.6%)
Total:            4,654                          +15.6% increase TV 2016 > 2020

2016 GE PRES:

HRC:            2,073       (51.5%)        +17.5% HRC     
Trump:         1,371       (34.0%)
Misc:              583        (14.5%)
Total:           4,027

There is only one precinct in Monmouth, but the relatively low swings from '16 > '20 makes one wonder if a reduced student population at Western Oregon University and / or COVID-19 related College Student unemployment here may have contributed.

Would be curious about how its twin city, Independence, voted.

Sure...

Independence Oregon

2020 GE PRES:

Biden:           2,476      (56.3%)        +16.4% Biden        (+7.9% Biden Swing)
Trump:          1,753      (39.9%)
Misc:               168       (3.8%)
Total:            4,397                         +26.3% increase TV 2016 > 2020

2016 GE PRES:

HRC:            1,654       (47.5%)        +8.5% HRC     
Trump:         1,357       (39.0%)
Misc:              471        (13.5%)
Total:           3,482

This is actually what I would have expected more from Monmouth, honestly as it is closer to the increase in total votes between '16 and '20 which we saw in many other parts of Oregon, partially as a result of Automatic Voter Registration as well as high level of interest in the 2020 GE PRES  race.

Independence skews a bit older than Monmouth, with high % in the 25 > 39 year age bracket (More teachers and administrators and fewer Undergrads? )

[Sailor Haumea]

Some more that I already have numbers for:


Arkadelphia, AR

2020: Biden 57.19%, Trump 38.41%

Anderson, SC

2020: Biden 50.39%, Trump 48.10%

Rapid City, SD

2016: Trump 58.17%, Clinton 33.00%
2020: Trump 55.93%, Biden 40.40%

Wheeling, WV

2020: Trump 56.44%, Biden 41.82%

[Sailor Haumea]

More:

Colorado Springs, CO

2016: Trump 53.01%, Clinton 36.71%
2020: Trump 50.35%, Biden 46.40%

Sioux Falls, SD

2016: Trump 51.42%, Clinton 41.44%
2020: Trump 50.53%, Biden 46.71%

Bismarck, ND

2016: Trump 64.69%, Clinton 25.18%
2020: Trump 64.89%, Biden 31.65%

Charleston, WV

2016: Clinton 52.38%, Trump 42.30%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Odessa, TX

2016: Trump 68.50%, Clinton 27.97%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Wichita Falls, TX

2016: Trump 69.00%, Clinton 26.17%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Tyler, TX

2016: Trump 58.78%, Clinton 36.32%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Kenosha, WI

2016: Clinton 55.78%, Trump 38.64%
2020: Biden 56.17%, Trump 42.02%

Florence, SC

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Biden 49.88%, Trump 48.77%

Billings, MT

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Trump 56.27%, Biden 40.21%

[NOVA Green]

More:

Colorado Springs, CO

2016: Trump 53.01%, Clinton 36.71%
2020: Trump 50.35%, Biden 46.40%

Sioux Falls, SD

2016: Trump 51.42%, Clinton 41.44%
2020: Trump 50.53%, Biden 46.71%

Bismarck, ND

2016: Trump 64.69%, Clinton 25.18%
2020: Trump 64.89%, Biden 31.65%

Charleston, WV

2016: Clinton 52.38%, Trump 42.30%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Odessa, TX

2016: Trump 68.50%, Clinton 27.97%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Wichita Falls, TX

2016: Trump 69.00%, Clinton 26.17%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Tyler, TX

2016: Trump 58.78%, Clinton 36.32%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Kenosha, WI

2016: Clinton 55.78%, Trump 38.64%
2020: Biden 56.17%, Trump 42.02%

Florence, SC

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Biden 49.88%, Trump 48.77%

Billings, MT

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Trump 56.27%, Biden 40.21%

Here are Billings numbers from 2016 PRES GE:

Are you sure you didn't include some of the split precincts?

Thinking our two different data sets don't totally add up, since I would imagine Billings would actually have swung DEM by at least a little bit between '16 and '20.

I'll need to go back and look at which ones I coded as primarily Billings in 2016....

Montana- #1 Billings--- Confirmed by precinct summation


Clinton: 12,903 (38.3%)
Trump: 17,791 (52.9%)

There are a few split precincts excluded from the list, but obviously these wouldn't have moved the dial very much in either direction... if anything it would have likely slightly bumped Trump's numbers...

[Sailor Haumea]

More:

Colorado Springs, CO

2016: Trump 53.01%, Clinton 36.71%
2020: Trump 50.35%, Biden 46.40%

Sioux Falls, SD

2016: Trump 51.42%, Clinton 41.44%
2020: Trump 50.53%, Biden 46.71%

Bismarck, ND

2016: Trump 64.69%, Clinton 25.18%
2020: Trump 64.89%, Biden 31.65%

Charleston, WV

2016: Clinton 52.38%, Trump 42.30%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Odessa, TX

2016: Trump 68.50%, Clinton 27.97%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Wichita Falls, TX

2016: Trump 69.00%, Clinton 26.17%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Tyler, TX

2016: Trump 58.78%, Clinton 36.32%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Kenosha, WI

2016: Clinton 55.78%, Trump 38.64%
2020: Biden 56.17%, Trump 42.02%

Florence, SC

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Biden 49.88%, Trump 48.77%

Billings, MT

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Trump 56.27%, Biden 40.21%

Here are Billings numbers from 2016 PRES GE:

Are you sure you didn't include some of the split precincts?

Thinking our two different data sets don't totally add up, since I would imagine Billings would actually have swung DEM by at least a little bit between '16 and '20.

I'll need to go back and look at which ones I coded as primarily Billings in 2016....

Montana- #1 Billings--- Confirmed by precinct summation


Clinton: 12,903 (38.3%)
Trump: 17,791 (52.9%)

There are a few split precincts excluded from the list, but obviously these wouldn't have moved the dial very much in either direction... if anything it would have likely slightly bumped Trump's numbers...

I didn't crunch the numbers for Billings, Political Pragmatist/CautiousLefty did on Twitter.

[Sailor Haumea]

More:

Colorado Springs, CO

2016: Trump 53.01%, Clinton 36.71%
2020: Trump 50.35%, Biden 46.40%

Sioux Falls, SD

2016: Trump 51.42%, Clinton 41.44%
2020: Trump 50.53%, Biden 46.71%

Bismarck, ND

2016: Trump 64.69%, Clinton 25.18%
2020: Trump 64.89%, Biden 31.65%

Charleston, WV

2016: Clinton 52.38%, Trump 42.30%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Odessa, TX

2016: Trump 68.50%, Clinton 27.97%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Wichita Falls, TX

2016: Trump 69.00%, Clinton 26.17%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Tyler, TX

2016: Trump 58.78%, Clinton 36.32%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Kenosha, WI

2016: Clinton 55.78%, Trump 38.64%
2020: Biden 56.17%, Trump 42.02%

Florence, SC

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Biden 49.88%, Trump 48.77%

Billings, MT

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Trump 56.27%, Biden 40.21%

Here are Billings numbers from 2016 PRES GE:

Are you sure you didn't include some of the split precincts?

Thinking our two different data sets don't totally add up, since I would imagine Billings would actually have swung DEM by at least a little bit between '16 and '20.

I'll need to go back and look at which ones I coded as primarily Billings in 2016....

Montana- #1 Billings--- Confirmed by precinct summation


Clinton: 12,903 (38.3%)
Trump: 17,791 (52.9%)

There are a few split precincts excluded from the list, but obviously these wouldn't have moved the dial very much in either direction... if anything it would have likely slightly bumped Trump's numbers...

I didn't crunch the numbers for Billings, Political Pragmatist/CautiousLefty did on Twitter.

His 2016 estimate for Billings is Trump 56.29%, Clinton 35.37%.

[NOVA Green]

More:

Colorado Springs, CO

2016: Trump 53.01%, Clinton 36.71%
2020: Trump 50.35%, Biden 46.40%

Sioux Falls, SD

2016: Trump 51.42%, Clinton 41.44%
2020: Trump 50.53%, Biden 46.71%

Bismarck, ND

2016: Trump 64.69%, Clinton 25.18%
2020: Trump 64.89%, Biden 31.65%

Charleston, WV

2016: Clinton 52.38%, Trump 42.30%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Odessa, TX

2016: Trump 68.50%, Clinton 27.97%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Wichita Falls, TX

2016: Trump 69.00%, Clinton 26.17%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Tyler, TX

2016: Trump 58.78%, Clinton 36.32%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Kenosha, WI

2016: Clinton 55.78%, Trump 38.64%
2020: Biden 56.17%, Trump 42.02%

Florence, SC

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Biden 49.88%, Trump 48.77%

Billings, MT

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Trump 56.27%, Biden 40.21%

Here are Billings numbers from 2016 PRES GE:

Are you sure you didn't include some of the split precincts?

Thinking our two different data sets don't totally add up, since I would imagine Billings would actually have swung DEM by at least a little bit between '16 and '20.

I'll need to go back and look at which ones I coded as primarily Billings in 2016....

Montana- #1 Billings--- Confirmed by precinct summation


Clinton: 12,903 (38.3%)
Trump: 17,791 (52.9%)

There are a few split precincts excluded from the list, but obviously these wouldn't have moved the dial very much in either direction... if anything it would have likely slightly bumped Trump's numbers...

I didn't crunch the numbers for Billings, Political Pragmatist/CautiousLefty did on Twitter.

His 2016 estimate for Billings is Trump 56.29%, Clinton 35.37%.

Hmm... still a bit different from numbers that I reran back in August of 2020...

I have called out the precincts (Including Splits) which I coded out as primarily Billings below:

Maybe he is dropping off the ~ 1.5k Write-In Votes from 2016?

Montana:

#1 Billings: Should be the obvious answer, but in the era where Trump might end up losing the PV by 8-10% essentially makes it a bit of an odds bet...

Still, gets a bit tricky once we roll into the Zone...

Tried to roll the precinct numbers from '16 and came out something like this in terms of raw vote:



Yellowstone County changed precinct lines in 2013, so although possible haven't attempted to run '08 or '12 compare and contrast numbers, still trying to roll the '16 precinct numbers by %:



For anyone looking at the Write-In numbers, they appear to be overwhelmingly Sanders with McMullin accounting for a relatively small chunk of the WI vote-share county wide.

Trump at only 51.3% in '16 in Billings MT, makes Cheyenne WY look like an extreme-right stronghold...

Not predicting a Biden '20 flip even in a +10% Ntl Biden win, but it certainly moves us into that "down-ballot bump" for MT-SEN and MT-GOV in a quirky State...

3rd Party Votes in Billings MT in '16 are likely overwhelmingly DEM voters in '20....

Not an expert on MT, but figured I would toss at least the '16 GE PRES numbers out there, since unfortunately not able to easily run a compare/contrast (Although certainly there are items out there which would likely be able to present the data, but recently got off work, so not really invested the time on this item yet).

So--- I decided to rerun a few numbers from 2016 PRES, even after adding in the Write-In Vote raw numbers and % to attempt to match against current precinct boundaries posted on the Yellowstone County website.

https://maps.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/mapping/index.html



It appears that either my 2017 report on Billings confirmed precinct vote was either "fake news", or maybe a few precincts shifted around and split precincts muddied the waters a few % points on the margins...

Naturally we need to re-examine the actual precinct level results from Billings, Montana in 2016 and include a mixture of clear precincts within the City Limits vs the split-precincts...



If we aggregate both the Split and Non-Splits we get something like 70% of the Yellowstone County Vote Share.

Now what does the % of the Vote look line in Billings by Split Precinct / Non-Split Precinct and Total?



So parsing the Split-Precincts could easily become an exercise looking pop density and census tracts to try to create a % modelling and estimated distribution of City Nov '16 vs present maps etc...

Still, the overall assumption is that even with split-precincts that voters outside of Billings City Limits would generally tend to be more Republican (based upon '16 County Precinct numbers), so at a maximum Trump won Billings [(53.6% (R) vs 35.2% (D)] and at minimum Trump won Billings [51.4% (R) vs 37.1% (D).

Okay-- so billings split combined with non-split Billings precincts had some 49k GE PRES voters in '16...

I tried to run the numbers from the 2008 GE PRES Precincts based upon the next Mayoral Election:

https://www.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/elections/results/Archives/Precinct_Nov2009.htm

2008 GE "Billings '09 Mayoral Precincts"   (Haven't run a % of '08 vs '09 precincts yet or done Excel db style power queries---)



Okay--- did that blow your eyeballs out trying to read the skinny font?

So basically--- we got a ton of precincts in Billings in '08 that went:

Obama '08:   25,540 Votes (47.2%)
McCain '08:   27,119 Votes (50.2%%)
TOTAL '08:    54,066

Billings, Montana will be an interesting case-study...

O'bama almost won it in '08, and currently Biden is out-performing in Ntl Polls vs Obama '08 % numbers...

Atlas Hive or Independent Thoughts???

[Sailor Haumea]

More:

Colorado Springs, CO

2016: Trump 53.01%, Clinton 36.71%
2020: Trump 50.35%, Biden 46.40%

Sioux Falls, SD

2016: Trump 51.42%, Clinton 41.44%
2020: Trump 50.53%, Biden 46.71%

Bismarck, ND

2016: Trump 64.69%, Clinton 25.18%
2020: Trump 64.89%, Biden 31.65%

Charleston, WV

2016: Clinton 52.38%, Trump 42.30%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Odessa, TX

2016: Trump 68.50%, Clinton 27.97%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Wichita Falls, TX

2016: Trump 69.00%, Clinton 26.17%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Tyler, TX

2016: Trump 58.78%, Clinton 36.32%
2020: ? (Don't have numbers)

Kenosha, WI

2016: Clinton 55.78%, Trump 38.64%
2020: Biden 56.17%, Trump 42.02%

Florence, SC

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Biden 49.88%, Trump 48.77%

Billings, MT

2016: ? (Don't have numbers)
2020: Trump 56.27%, Biden 40.21%

Here are Billings numbers from 2016 PRES GE:

Are you sure you didn't include some of the split precincts?

Thinking our two different data sets don't totally add up, since I would imagine Billings would actually have swung DEM by at least a little bit between '16 and '20.

I'll need to go back and look at which ones I coded as primarily Billings in 2016....

Montana- #1 Billings--- Confirmed by precinct summation


Clinton: 12,903 (38.3%)
Trump: 17,791 (52.9%)

There are a few split precincts excluded from the list, but obviously these wouldn't have moved the dial very much in either direction... if anything it would have likely slightly bumped Trump's numbers...

I didn't crunch the numbers for Billings, Political Pragmatist/CautiousLefty did on Twitter.

His 2016 estimate for Billings is Trump 56.29%, Clinton 35.37%.

Hmm... still a bit different from numbers that I reran back in August of 2020...

I have called out the precincts (Including Splits) which I coded out as primarily Billings below:

Maybe he is dropping off the ~ 1.5k Write-In Votes from 2016?

Montana:

#1 Billings: Should be the obvious answer, but in the era where Trump might end up losing the PV by 8-10% essentially makes it a bit of an odds bet...

Still, gets a bit tricky once we roll into the Zone...

Tried to roll the precinct numbers from '16 and came out something like this in terms of raw vote:



Yellowstone County changed precinct lines in 2013, so although possible haven't attempted to run '08 or '12 compare and contrast numbers, still trying to roll the '16 precinct numbers by %:



For anyone looking at the Write-In numbers, they appear to be overwhelmingly Sanders with McMullin accounting for a relatively small chunk of the WI vote-share county wide.

Trump at only 51.3% in '16 in Billings MT, makes Cheyenne WY look like an extreme-right stronghold...

Not predicting a Biden '20 flip even in a +10% Ntl Biden win, but it certainly moves us into that "down-ballot bump" for MT-SEN and MT-GOV in a quirky State...

3rd Party Votes in Billings MT in '16 are likely overwhelmingly DEM voters in '20....

Not an expert on MT, but figured I would toss at least the '16 GE PRES numbers out there, since unfortunately not able to easily run a compare/contrast (Although certainly there are items out there which would likely be able to present the data, but recently got off work, so not really invested the time on this item yet).

So--- I decided to rerun a few numbers from 2016 PRES, even after adding in the Write-In Vote raw numbers and % to attempt to match against current precinct boundaries posted on the Yellowstone County website.

https://maps.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/mapping/index.html



It appears that either my 2017 report on Billings confirmed precinct vote was either "fake news", or maybe a few precincts shifted around and split precincts muddied the waters a few % points on the margins...

Naturally we need to re-examine the actual precinct level results from Billings, Montana in 2016 and include a mixture of clear precincts within the City Limits vs the split-precincts...



If we aggregate both the Split and Non-Splits we get something like 70% of the Yellowstone County Vote Share.

Now what does the % of the Vote look line in Billings by Split Precinct / Non-Split Precinct and Total?



So parsing the Split-Precincts could easily become an exercise looking pop density and census tracts to try to create a % modelling and estimated distribution of City Nov '16 vs present maps etc...

Still, the overall assumption is that even with split-precincts that voters outside of Billings City Limits would generally tend to be more Republican (based upon '16 County Precinct numbers), so at a maximum Trump won Billings [(53.6% (R) vs 35.2% (D)] and at minimum Trump won Billings [51.4% (R) vs 37.1% (D).

Okay-- so billings split combined with non-split Billings precincts had some 49k GE PRES voters in '16...

I tried to run the numbers from the 2008 GE PRES Precincts based upon the next Mayoral Election:

https://www.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/elections/results/Archives/Precinct_Nov2009.htm

2008 GE "Billings '09 Mayoral Precincts"   (Haven't run a % of '08 vs '09 precincts yet or done Excel db style power queries---)



Okay--- did that blow your eyeballs out trying to read the skinny font?

So basically--- we got a ton of precincts in Billings in '08 that went:

Obama '08:   25,540 Votes (47.2%)
McCain '08:   27,119 Votes (50.2%%)
TOTAL '08:    54,066

Billings, Montana will be an interesting case-study...

O'bama almost won it in '08, and currently Biden is out-performing in Ntl Polls vs Obama '08 % numbers...

Atlas Hive or Independent Thoughts???

Hmm. If you have a Twitter, you could ask how he arrived at the numbers that he did.

Maybe calculate 2020 and compare with what he got?

[Sailor Haumea]

Have just calculated numbers for Vienna, WV:

Trump: 3,672 (64.35%)
Biden: 1,918 (33.61%)
Others: 116 (2.03%)

The breakdown of the "other" vote is 96 votes for Jorgensen and 20 votes for Hawkins.

[NOVA Green]

Cross-Post from another thread:

Montgomery, Alabama:

Using following link, anyone able to calculate Huntsville vs. rest of Madison County; Montgomery rest of Montgomery County and Mobile vs. rest of Mobile Count

https://www.sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data

Montgomery County, Alabama:

This County suffers from some of the same issues as Mobile County, AL when attempting to break down votes by Municipality:

1.) There are a decent number of split precincts, making coding a bit more difficult.

2.) A significantly larger number of Absentee / Provisional Ballots than in 2016 (Which are not assigned to a precinct location).

That being said, here are the best numbers for 2020 I could come up with considering the limitations, anybody please feel free to inquire as to how I coded the various precincts in case I missed something large on the splits.

2020 Montgomery County- GE PRES:

Montgomery City--- 56.8% of 2020 County Vote Share:

Biden:         37,324    (66.3%)         +34.2% Biden       (+2.1% Trump Swing)         
Trump:        18,091    (32.1%)
Misc:                867    ( 1.5%)       
Total:          56,282                          -21.7% Less Voters 2016 > 2020

Montgomery County---- 18.3% of 2020 County Vote Share  :

Biden:           7,286    (40.2%)        +18.2% Trump         (+9.7% Trump Swing)     
Trump:        10,589    (58.4%)
Misc:                242    ( 1.3%)       
Total:          18,117                          -8.0% Less Voters 2016 > 2020

Montgomery--- Absentee & Provisionals---  25.0% of 2020 County Vote Share:

Biden:         19,919    (80.5%)           +61.8% Biden   (+51.6% DEM Swing)         
Trump:         4,631     (18.7%)
Misc:               190    ( 0.8%)       
Total:          24,740                           +475.9% Increase in TV 2016 > 2020                           

2016 Montgomery County- GE PRES:

Montgomery City----  (75.0% of 2016 County Vote Share):

HRC:           47,895    (66.6%)         +36.3% HRC           
Trump:        21,748    (30.3%)
Misc:             2,242    ( 3.1%)       
Total:          71,885

Montgomery County--- (20.5% of 2016 County Vote Share):

HRC:             8,715    (44.2%)         +8.5% Trump         
Trump:        10,388    (52.7%)
Misc:               594     ( 3.0%)       
Total:          19,697

Montgomery--- Absentee & Provisionals--- (2016- 4.5% of County Vote Share:

HRC:             2,306    (53.7%)         +10.2% HRC       
Trump:          1,867    (43.5%)
Misc:               123     ( 2.9%)       
Total:            4,296


What to make of all this?

Okay--- let's do a bit of basic math to try to guesstimate rough numbers for City / Non-City using 2016 GE PRES as a baseline.

1.) So let's say Montgomery, Alabama is 75% of the 2020 GE PRES County Vote Share (keeping the 4% Absentee / Provisional aside from both categories) = 74,354 TVs.

2.) If we subtract the 56,282 City Voters, we have about 18,072 votes to maintain the City Vote Share....

Biden= + 14,548
Trump=  +3,379

3.) This would work out to something like the following for 2020:

Biden:  51,872    (69.8%)       +40.9% Biden    (+4.6% Biden Swing).
Trump: 21,470    (28.9%)
TOT:    74,354

4.) Note this might well actually be a bit of an understatement, since I am equally dividing the provisional and outstanding ballots (excepting the 4%) between the City of Montgomery and Rural and Non-City majority precincts.

5.) Regardless it appears that Montgomery, Alabama swung Democratic by significant margins between 2016 and 2020.

6.) Now we have to ask the question is to what extent and where are these alleged swings among African-American Voters occurring, since at least looking at Mobile and Montgomery, Alabama 2020, there does not appear to be a compelling body of evidence to support this argument?

7.) It does appear that there were some significant swings between 2016 and 2020 in some Anglo and relatively educated precincts in both Mobile and Montgomery.

8.) Montgomery, Alabama actually jumped out while I was trolling for precincts in terms of the sheer number and geographical dispersion of Higher Educational Facilities.

Montgomery also has a decent sized Auto Sector, home to the 1st Hyundai Plant in North America with roughly 3k direct employees:

https://www.hmmausa.com/

9.) It does appear that the influence of the Auto Sector in places like Huntsville, Tuscaloosa County, and Montgomery as well be playing a role in gradually shifting certain communities in a Democratic direction over time.

[Sailor Haumea]

Bump

[Sailor Haumea]

Institute, WV is in a single precinct:

Biden: 518 (81%)
Trump: 111 (17%)