At what point will Dems get maxed out in Dane County?

[Adam Griffin]

Just some data on raw vote & population changes in Dane & Madison:

Dane 2004-2020 Change:

+110624 Total Population
================
+79069 Democratic Votes
-11575 Republican Votes
+70479 Total Votes

      Madison 2004-2020 Change:

      +47337 Total Population
      ================
      +33622 Democratic Votes
      -11082 Republican Votes
      +23535 Total Votes

      Non-Madison 2004-2020 Change:

      +63287 Total Population
      ================
      +45447 Democratic Votes
      -493 Republican Votes
      +46944 Total Votes


Madison 2004-2020 Change:

43% of Dane Pop Growth
================
43% of D Dane Vote Growth
96% of R Dane Vote Losses
33% of T Dane Vote Growth

Virtually all of the net Republican raw vote loss in Dane since 2004 has happened in Madison proper, while Democratic raw vote gains are proportionate when breaking the county down into "Madison vs Everything Else".

Non-Madison Dane is growing ever-so-slightly faster than the city in terms of population (Madison declined from 48.9% of the county in 2004 to 48.6% in 2020).

Even outside Madison, Republicans managed to see their raw vote total decline by 500 votes between 04-20 (from 56154 to 55661): this effectively means that area is holding steady in raw R vote, but that's over a time period where the total raw D vote increased by 47k (and pop increased by 63k).

All in all, pop growth versus vote-gain for Democrats between Madison & everything else is negligible in difference. This in my opinion points to continued Democratic gains virtually everywhere in the county (whether through true D growth or simply continued R losses, or - likely - both), because that is what has been happening over the past 15 years. If the best the GOP can do is almost maintain their raw vote totals in the hinterlands while Democratic raw vote continues to grow massively there - all the while, DEM raw vote follows the same trends in Madison while GOP raw vote continues collapsing there - Democrats aren't necessarily close at all to maxing out in terms of raw vote margin (percentage margin is a different story, but I'd wager something like 80-18 as a baseline within the next 10 years isn't unrealistic).

2004-2020 Madison Swing      D+20.47
2004-2020 Elsewhere Swing   D+20.86

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ One thing that is present in the above data but that I did not mention: between 2004-2020, non-Madison Dane saw its raw vote increase by an equivalent of 74% of its total population growth.

In Madison proper? That figure was only 50%. I think - even when accounting for factors such as age and citizenship differentials that may be present - this points to a large, currently-untapped bank of potential voters for the future. In most places, I wouldn't necessarily assume these types were as naturally Democratic as the current voter bloc, but I think a place like Madison could be the exception.