At what point will Dems get maxed out in Dane County?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Dane continues to produce bigger winning margins for Democrats every election cycle. Although Barnes lost statewide, he still outperformed Biden and received 77% of the vote in Dane County. Evers received 79% of the vote in Dane, the largest percentage a Democrat has ever received in Dane. Now that Dems are approaching 80% in Dane County, at what point do you think D's will be maxed out in that county?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Just some data on raw vote & population changes in Dane & Madison:

Dane 2004-2020 Change:

+110624 Total Population
================
+79069 Democratic Votes
-11575 Republican Votes
+70479 Total Votes

      Madison 2004-2020 Change:

      +47337 Total Population
      ================
      +33622 Democratic Votes
      -11082 Republican Votes
      +23535 Total Votes

      Non-Madison 2004-2020 Change:

      +63287 Total Population
      ================
      +45447 Democratic Votes
      -493 Republican Votes
      +46944 Total Votes


Madison 2004-2020 Change:

43% of Dane Pop Growth
================
43% of D Dane Vote Growth
96% of R Dane Vote Losses
33% of T Dane Vote Growth

Virtually all of the net Republican raw vote loss in Dane since 2004 has happened in Madison proper, while Democratic raw vote gains are proportionate when breaking the county down into "Madison vs Everything Else".

Non-Madison Dane is growing ever-so-slightly faster than the city in terms of population (Madison declined from 48.9% of the county in 2004 to 48.6% in 2020).

Even outside Madison, Republicans managed to see their raw vote total decline by 500 votes between 04-20 (from 56154 to 55661): this effectively means that area is holding steady in raw R vote, but that's over a time period where the total raw D vote increased by 47k (and pop increased by 63k).

All in all, pop growth versus vote-gain for Democrats between Madison & everything else is negligible in difference. This in my opinion points to continued Democratic gains virtually everywhere in the county (whether through true D growth or simply continued R losses, or - likely - both), because that is what has been happening over the past 15 years. If the best the GOP can do is almost maintain their raw vote totals in the hinterlands while Democratic raw vote continues to grow massively there - all the while, DEM raw vote follows the same trends in Madison while GOP raw vote continues collapsing there - Democrats aren't necessarily close at all to maxing out in terms of raw vote margin (percentage margin is a different story, but I'd wager something like 80-18 as a baseline within the next 10 years isn't unrealistic).

2004-2020 Madison Swing      D+20.47
2004-2020 Elsewhere Swing   D+20.86

This is a great analysis. Thank you!

[Scottholes 2.0]

I would guess probably about 82-84%. I think that Dems don’t really grow in percentage from here, but will continue to increase raw vote margin. Evers added 16,000 more votes this year than 2018, and Michels decreased 7,000 compared to Walker. I think it’s realistic going forward to say that every four years Dems will net ~10,000 votes in midterms and ~20,000 in Prez races.

Part of this is because population is just booming all over Dane County. Every time I drive down Highway 151 or I39 I see more and more cranes building apartments. Even in the suburbs like Sun Prairie or Deforest houses are just sprouting up. It’s nuts.

If we are miraculously still winning WI in the 2030s, Dane growth will be probably one of the biggest reasons.

Yeah, right now Dane County is about 570,000 people, but it is projected to be about 700,000 by 2040. If we assume that means 100K new voters and they break 70/30 D, that would mean 40,000+ Dem votes. Also, the projections that show 700k are conservative ones. Personally, with the rate of growth I’m seeing, I think closer to 740,000 is likely. The exurban counties are also growing too. Beaver Dam (Dodge) is growing steadily, Lake Mills (Jefferson), Baraboo (Sauk) are all working on pretty large developments right now. In Columbia County, where I like, Columbus is plotting a new neighborhood off Hwy 151, Poynette just agreed with a developer to add 470 homes by 2030, Portage just signed a developer agreement to add 250 apartment units and 47 single family homes. This doesn’t even include the current proposals I’m reading from Lodi, Arlington, Rio, and Fall River that are trying to build more (although those communities are off the main highways so it’s a bit harder to get attention).

In terms of future trends, I also wouldn’t underestimate Dem chances in the Fox Valley. The Packers are pouring in a crap load of money to build up massive condo and townhome developments around Lambeau, and the suburbs are growing rapidly too. De Pere is seeing a pretty strong leftward trend, and other wealthy suburbs like Kimberly are pretty competitive.

Interesting take.

[Scottholes 2.0]

How so?

I'm referring to your take on the Fox Valley region. For a long time, I have underestimated Dems' chances in this region because I have always viewed this area as a more working-class region, but it has been 10-15 years since I've visited this area, so I'm guessing things must have changed a lot since then?