Some very odd takes here.
-Kelly Ayotte is not winning anything in NH.
-Tulsi Gabbard is not winning anything in HI.
-Paul LePage is not winning anything in ME with ranked choice voting.
-Charlie Baker is safe if he runs for reelection.
-Kansas and Wisconsin start as Lean D or toss-up but in no way are Kelly / Evers at an automatic disadvantage.
-If Finkenauer vacates her House seat for a high-risk statewide run, it would probably be for Senate rather than Governor (but hopefully neither).
-MLG starts in a much better position in NM than "Tilt D"
Edited because I realized RCV only applies in gubernatorial primary, not the general. Still feels exceptionally unlikely that LePage would take out Mills.
I think you're seriously overestimating Kelly's chances in Kansas. She only won in 2018 because 1.) Brownback was a disaster, 2.) Trump was an anchor on Republicans all across the country, 3.) she was running against an extremist in Kobach, and 4.) Orman ran as a spoiler. Even as an incumbent, if she faces a reasonable challenger she is going to be wiped out.
I think it'll be a competitive race, for sure. But given her incumbency, relative popularity, the strong possibility of a relatively neutral national environment, and GOP's tendency to shoot itself in the foot in Kansas, I just think it's a bit much to say she starts out as the underdog.
Also, not clear Orman hurt Kobach much more than Kelly. He basically ran as the Democratic candidate in the 2014 Senate election.
