US with French parties

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Southern California

Los Angeles County: The Verdugos and Pasadena

Sunland-Tujunga is a largely white, middle-class suburb with a small Armenian presence (it is close to Glendale). It seems fairly non-descript, and would appear to be left-leaning overall. La Crescenta-Montrose is affluent with a fairly big Asian (Korean) presence, so it would probably be swingy or slightly right-leaning. La Cañada-Flintridge is white and extremely affluent, and it would be a UMP stronghold.

Pasadena is one-third Hispanic, but the whites are fairly liberal because of the big arts/cultural scene in the city. Obviously, the Hispanic neighborhoods downtown would be PS strongholds, but for the most part the white areas of Mid Central, East Central, West Central and South would also be solidly PS but with a Green presence. They're not very affluent, but they're rather liberal. Affluent places like Linda Vista and North East would lean to the right, however.

Altadena has a large black population, but the white areas are liberal as well. The whole city, which is small, would be left-wing all over.

Los Angeles County: San Gabriel Valley

South Pasadena is mixed Asian-white, is pretty affluent and would, from what I gather, lean to the left.

Alhambra is largely Asian, with some Hispanics living closer to inner city LA. It is largely middle-class and Asians are largely Chinese, so in general Alhambra would lean to the left, with the Hispanic areas being of course the most left-wing areas but the Asian areas still generally left-leaning too.

Monterey Park is a heavily Asian (Chinese, historically Taiwanese) middle-class suburban community. The politics here would be determined by how this type of suburban middle-class Chinese community would vote, but it would likely lean to the PS.

Rosemead is now majority Chinese, result of a major growth in the Asian population. It is not as wealthy as surrounding Asian communities, and as a result would be more left-leaning than its surroundings. South San Gabriel seems to be a similar story. San Gabriel is a wealthier but still heavily Chinese suburb, it would also lean to the left.

San Marino is an extremely affluent Asian neighborhood, and seems to have been the destination of Taiwanese who left Monterey Park. It would be right-leaning, a mix of the anti-communism of the Taiwanese and the massive affluence of the place.

Arcadia and Temple City are middle-class Asian suburbs. Politically, they would be rather mixed, with the wealthiest precincts being largely right-leaning and the other areas more undecided. Arcadia would be more right-wing than Temple City because it is more affluent. Voters here are socially moderate and economically right-wing, making them perfect swing votes.

That description applies to the white neighborhoods of Monrovia, but the downtown core of that middle-class suburb is now heavily Hispanic as are parts of next-door Duarte. South El Monte, El Monte, Baldwin Park, Irwindale, Vincent, Asuza, Citrus, Avocado Heights, Industry, La Puente, West Puente Valley, Valinda and South San Jose Hills are all more or less heavily Hispanic. El Monte, Baldwin Park and Irwindale are blue-collar working-class employment hubs, and are the poorest of these areas. The other neighborhoods, lying further eastwards, are more middle-class suburbs. In general, all those places would be PS strongholds. Downtown Whittier is also heavily Hispanic, and would vote similarly. More affluent (hilly) and white precincts of Whittier would lean to the right.

West Covina is pretty Hispanic, but there is a strong Asian and white presence as well. Voting would be on racial bases, the Hispanic areas being PS strongholds, the white areas leaning to the right and the Asian areas more mixed. Covina is pretty similar, only with a smaller Hispanic population and very few Asians. Again, white areas would go for the right, Hispanics for the left.

Glendora and San Dimas are white and very affluent suburban communities, so they would be pretty solidly UMP.

Hacienda Heights, Rowland Heights, Walnut and Diamond Bar are affluent Asian suburban communities. They would be pretty mixed in their voting patterns, being full of swing voters. They would probably lean to the left these days, but have been more right-leaning under Chirac. La Habra Heights is white and affluent, so it's predictably a right-wing stronghold.

Pomona is largely Hispanic, and there are pockets of deprivation in the most heavily Hispanic neighborhoods. But Pomona, La Verne and Claremont also have a number of uni campuses and colleges, adding liberal students and faculty to the mix. This is especially true in Claremont, which is white but very liberal. The two elements would make Pomona and its immediate neighbors solidly left-wing, but with a significant Green presence.

...

I will personally kill the first person who derails this thread into some boring discussion of stuff irrelevant to this.

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Southern California

Los Angeles County: Lancaster, Palmdale and Santa Clarita

North of the Los Angeles National Forest is some high-growth exurban (peri-urbain in French) country, rather similar to Kern County. Lancaster and especially Palmdale have large, growing Hispanic populations, meaning that politically they would likely lean to the left. But voting patterns would be similar to Bakersfield: heavily based on racial lines. The whites are exurban not-super affluent conservatives. If Palmdale is a PS city, it would be because of Hispanics. Lancaster's politics would be polarized on racial lines, with Hispanics voting for the PS and whites voting UMP (in years such as 2007) or FN (in years such as 2012). Because this is the same kind of exurban not-too-affluent country that we found around Bakersfield.

Santa Clarita is kind of similar, but with a lesser Hispanic presence and slightly more liberal whites.

Orange County: Northern OC

The OC is affluent conservative suburban country. Experiencing rapid growth in the post-war era from an influx of whites from liberal cities or from the Midwestern states, these affluent suburbanites became known for their ferocious anti-communism and ultra-conservatism. As a result, the OC has long been a conservative stronghold. In our context, Orange County would have similar politics. It would have been a stronghold of the right from its earliest days. It would have preferred the conservative Gaullist right (despite its statism of early days), and would have preferred Jacques Chirac to Giscard in 1981. Despite its affluence, anti-communism would likely have helped the FN in its early years - 1984, 1986 and 1988 - and Le Pen's party would have polled very well in those days of a more 'right-wing' FN electorate. However, it hardly seems like the type of place Marine Le Pen would do really well in, given her image. While Nicolas Sarkozy and his meritocratic, law-and-order populist conservative message in 2007 would have made him the best right-wing candidate for OC whites in decades (OC whites would have reservations about moderate-social Chirac of 1995), recent demographic trends would not be to the UMP's advantage. The OC is getting less conservative as left-voting Hispanics move in to give the county a one-third Hispanic population.

Let us still begin by looking at what would be traditionally left-leaning in this conservative stronghold. Pretty obviously, the Hispanic areas would be pretty left-leaning despite the cultural conservatism of most Hispanics. The Hispanic areas are usually lower middle-class suburban areas, though places like Santa Ana and Stanton have blue-collar backgrounds. Santa Ana is heavily Hispanic (78%) and is pretty poor in parts. It would form the solid backbone of the PS in OC, but the Hispanic vote would be less one-sided than in LA County. The UMP (or UDF) would maintain a minority following within the Hispanic community.

Anaheim is also Hispanic majority, and follows well-established voting patterns. The heavy Hispanic areas are reliably Socialist, the plurality Hispanic or ethnically mixed parts closer to Garden Grove and Stanton would have more open voting patterns while being traditionally PS leaning these days. Anaheim and Santa Ana would be the most left-voting parts of the OC, but Hispanic growth in parts of Stanton, Buena Park, Fullerton, La Habra, Placentia, Orange and Contra Mesa would have opened the political game in those cities a bit. Stanton, Buena Park and La Habra by their larger Hispanic populations would have voted for Royal in 2007, while the other cities would still have voted for Sarkozy. The white areas of places such as Fullerton, Orange or Contra Mesa are conservative and affluent.

Yorba Linda - Nixon's birthplace - is a very affluent, white conservative suburb in North OC's hills. Villa Park and North Tustin/Tustin Foothills are similarly very affluent and very conservative white suburbs. Those places would be some of the most solidly UMP areas in the OC.

Jumping around to the coast, Huntington Beach and the neighboring communities of Sunset Beach, Seal Beach, Cypress and Fountain Valley are all white, middle-class residential suburbs. Some coastal neighborhoods are particularly affluent. Boeing and the aerospace industry have long been important to Huntington Beach and other neighboring communities. In general, they would be solidly UMP.

Westminster and Garden Grove (to a lesser extent) are not as affluent but still middle-class residential suburbs. But their particularity is that they have a large Vietnamese community. Settling and working in the OC, Vietnamese-Americans in the OC are particularly conservative for reasons related to anti-communism. One can assume that in our context they would be solidly UMP as well.

Next: southern OC (Irvine etc)

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Southern California

Orange County: Southern OC

Newport Beach is a very affluent white suburban community with lots of old people. There is little question that it would be a UMP stronghold.

Irvine, on the other hand, is another story. The campus of University of California Irvine gives the city a large academia-liberal feel, complemented to some extent by an important Asian population (largely Chinese, Korean or Filipino). The Asian parts would tend to be left-leaning, the whiter areas more right-leaning, while the university would be a left-wing stronghold with a large Green vote. Bayrou would have performed well in 2007 in Irvine, in contrast to pretty mediocre performances elsewhere.

Laguna Beach is the OC's other major liberal enclave. It is a pretty artsy/hip/environmentalist/left-liberal community, with a big gay community and strong local environmental movement. Even more so than Irvine, Laguna Beach would be a left-wing stronghold, the only such stronghold for the left in the southern OC. Again, the Greens would perform very strongly.

Aliso Viejo and some parts of the surrounding hills are more white-liberal, but for the most part the very affluent suburbs/retirement havens of Laguna Niguel, Laguna Hills, Mission Viejo, Lake Forest, Rancho Santa Margarita, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente would be UMP strongholds besides a few random Hispanic precincts. They do not seem as culturally conservative as other parts of the OC, so there might have been a stronger vote for Bayrou in these communities in 2007.

San Bernardino County: Inland Empire

A sort of extension of LA County's San Gabriel Valley, the IE in SB County extends to take in the cities of Ontario, Fontana and San Bernardino. Increasingly suburban by highway linkages of all sorts to LA County, there is still an important local economy: old manufacturing, warehousing, distribution facilities, more blue-collar service jobs, technology and defense. The IE here is all high-growth exurbia, which is not too affluent - there are pockets of deprivation in Ontario, Fontana and San Bernardino - but has attracted lower income or middle-class families, often Hispanics by cause of low land and property prices. Of course, this is also foreclosure country.

Ontario, Fontana and San Bernardino as well as smaller communities such as Montclair, Colton, Rialto, Bloomington, Muscoy and even parts of Upland, Rancho Cucamonga and Redlands have become heavily Hispanic. The mix of lower-income, blue-collar Hispanics in this setting would make them, obviously, solidly left-wing. Turnout, however, is remarkably low in the IE, and even lower with Hispanics, making them less powerful actors than their demographic weight could indicate.

Politics and voting patterns would be pretty racially based. White areas, which are also more affluent, would be conservative. The white parts of Upland, Rancho Cucamonga, Redlands and Chino would be solidly right-wing. Chino Hills is very affluent, but a large Filipino population might make it less right-wing than its surroundings.

On the other side of the San Bernardino Mountains, development is more limited and population is sparser. Mountains and dry deserts make development difficult. In the Victor Valley, the cities of Hesperia, Apple Valley and Victorville are high-growth exurban communities. Victorville is heavily Hispanic, so it has a logical left-wing lean but Hesperia and Apple Valley are solidly right-wing. For the most part, the small towns of Yucca Valley, Twentynine Palms or Needles, as well as the bulk of the desert and mountains of eastern SB County are heavily right-wing, with a strong FN vote.

San Bernardino County is perfect ground for the FN, but it is doubtful it could prosper as much as it could because the not-too-affluent high-growth exurbs are basically heavily Hispanic, and those people wouldn't vote FN in a million years.

Next: Riverside County, San Diego and Imperial County

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Comments?

SD and Imperial should be up tonight. I'll move to Oregon this weekend.

[Hash]

Nobody gives a sh**t, but okay.


Southern California

Riverside County: Inland Empire

As in San Bernardino County, voting would be pretty racially polarized. The lower middle-class and blue collar Hispanic suburbs/communities of Corona, Rubidoux, Moreno Valley, Perris, Lake Elsinore and most of Riverside would be solidly left-leaning areas. The University of California campus in Riverside's Eastside would provide a more liberal electorate, but overall it would be a rather conservative Hispanic PS vote which would predominate. The election map in its details would resemble, as it does irl, a racial map. Likewise in the San Jacinto Valley.

Norco is an interesting very white and pretty affluent community squeezed between two Hispanic areas, including low-income Corona to the south. It would be solidly UMP. The UMP would also find strength in the exurban communities, largely white and high-growth middle-class, lining I-15 (Temecula, Murrieta, Wildomar). The FN would also poll well.

Riverside County: Coachella Valley

The Coachella Valley in Riverside County includes formerly agricultural areas transformed into high-growth peri-urban communities or retirement communities. Originally places like Palm Springs, Palm Desert or La Quinta were overwhelmingly white conservative retirement communities, filled with pretty well-off right-leaning retirees. However, the region around Palm Springs has seen pretty solid growth with a sizable Hispanic presence.

Palm Springs would have shifted to the left in recent years after having been a RPR stronghold for a long time. There is a very large gay and lesbian community and the city has otherwise attracted more liberal young professionals. Palm Springs might yet have voted for Sarkozy in 2007, but there would have been a strong shift leftwards. The Greens would have done well in 2009.

Palm Desert and La Quinta remain whiter and more affluent, and the conservative retiree bloc is more political powerful. These communities would still lean solidly to the right.

The southern reach of the Coachella Valley near the Salton Sea has remained a predominantly agricultural region, entailing a large population of Hispanic farm workers. Indio, Coachella, Mecca and all the places surrounding the Salton Sea are very, very heavily Hispanic areas and while turnout is low in these parts, those who do vote would vote heavily PS.

Nobody lives in the desert east of the Coachella Valley, but those who do seem to be right-wing. Except around Blythe, which seems to be an Hispanic agricultural community.

San Diego: City of San Diego

San Diego County's Hispanic population - surprisingly small given its proximity to Mexico - lives concentrated along the Mexican border with Tijuana, the coastal neighborhoods of Chula Vista and National City. These places are largely low-income, blue-collar communities, and Chula Vista is boring suburb. Hispanic communities now extend to Lemon Grove and central San Diego neighborhoods such as Barrio Logan, Grant Hill, Ridgeview-Webster, City Heights, Encanto or East San Diego. The poorer neighborhoods, in San Ysidro, Chula Vista, or SE San Diego would be solidly PS. But Lemon Grove, eastern Chula Vista and parts of La Presa and Spring Valley are relatively well-off Hispanic middle-class communities, and would tend to be less solidly PS and would have a larger UMP presence.

The city's downtown core, largely white, and the neighborhoods of Hillcrest, Normal Heights, Mission Hills and Mission Valley (also white and middle-class) are artsy neighborhoods with a predominantly young, educated professional population. Hillcrest has a large gay community, which extends into the other neighborhoods as well, while Normal Heights is a bobo neighborhood. These neighborhoods are very liberal, and would be solidly left-wing especially in recent years. The PS, while strong, would face competition from the Greens and MoDem.

Coronado, on the opposite side of the bay, is a white neighborhood driven by the military (North Island Naval Complex) and has a good number of veterans. It would be a pretty solidly right-wing area. Nearby, on Point Loma, the affluent neighborhood of La Playa, Roseville-Fleetridge and Loma Portal would be right-leaning or at least swing-voting. These are fairly affluent white neighborhoods, though not necessarily deeply conservative.

Ocean Beach is a tad poorer, quite a bit younger and is a bit of a hippie beachfront community.  Pacific Beach and Mission Beach, opposite Ocean Beach (across Mission Bay, which includes SeaWorld), are rather similar. They attract surfers, yuppies and college students. Like downtown neighborhoods, similarly young and liberal, these three areas would be solidly left-wing especially in recent years. The PS, while strong, would face competition from the Greens and MoDem.

Clairemont and the sub-neighborhoods of Linda Vista, Bay Park and Bay Ho are older white suburban neighborhoods though the median age is not particularly old. The University of San Diego in Clairemont surely contributes to the younger liberal population, but overall Clairemont's areas would be a swing-voting area which would be closely disputed.

La Jolla is a very affluent neighborhood, with very high property prices. Further north, it is also home to UCSD, which likely conditions the neighborhood's politics and demographics considerably. La Jolla peninsula proper seems very affluent, and besides a few more artsy spots it would probably be a solidly right-wing area though with a liberal slant. The area around UCSD is younger and obviously more liberal, so there is no question that it would be PS-Green stronghold.

Serra Mesa, Kearny Mesa and Mission Trails seem like fairly non-descript white middle-class suburbs, with defense likely a major employer for residents here. Serra Mesa does seem a bit less affluent, so it might be more left-wing, but this would probably be boring swing territory between UMP and PS with little third party presence.

Miramar is a military base, and its residents are military so pretty right-wing. Mira Mesa has a large Asian (Filipino and Vietnamese) population, working in defense-related industries. It might be more left-wing by cause of Asian presence, but my guess is that the area would be a fairly right-leaning area.

Incorporated exurban areas like Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Peñasquitos or the San Pasqual Valley are largely white and very affluent. Besides a few random precincts, this seems like a UMP stronghold.

San Diego inner suburbs

La Mesa and El Cajon are suburban and white, but seem to be slightly less affluent and professional than their neighbors. Downtown El Cajon seems quite lower middle-class, actually. They would be fairly swing voting places, with a narrow PS lean.

Besides those two places, San Diego's eastern suburbs are pretty much all hilly, white, affluent and professional. The high-tech and defense industry are main employers, and these places have remained pretty affluent because of that diversified economy. Rancho San Diego, Jamul, Winter Gardens, Lakeside and Santee would be UMP strongholds.

Further north, Poway is a pretty affluent white exurb with a more rural feel, but politically it would be a UMP stronghold as well. All the places further inland are not very populated, but being largely white, rural and not too badly off, it would be UMP stronghold as well.

TBC.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm still following this, but it's hard for me to catch up with all the stuff you write. It's still fascinating.

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Southern California

Northern San Diego County

North of San Diego, the beachfront communities of Del Mar, Solana Beach and Encinitas are affluent upper middle-class communities and popular tourist destination and surf spots. Perhaps proximity to the sea and concern for pollution partly explains why these communities are some of the most socially liberal areas outside of the city San Diego. Wealth would indicate a UMP lean, but very pronounced social liberalism and environmentalism would probably make these places more left-leaning (PS, Green). Carlsbad is similarly affluent, but is more suburban, a larger employment center and perhaps a bigger tourist desination (Legoland). It would be slightly more divided in its politics.

Oceanside, Vista, San Marcos and Escondido are fairly lower middle-class suburbs or communities, driven both by the defense industry and other smaller service jobs. They also all have heavily Hispanic downtown cores, which would be the most left-wing areas in those places. Otherwise, the white outskirts in all cases are far more affluent and conservative. Oceanside still has a coastal liberalism to it in white neighborhoods, but Escondido is very conservative. Nearby Poway, a semi-rural exurb of San Diego, driven by defense, is very conservative as well.

The rest of the county is otherwise high-growth white affluent exurbs or rurban places. Predictably very conservative, a UMP stronghold.

Imperial County

Located in the Imperial Valley, a major irrigated agricultural area located south of the Salton Sea (Coachella Valley) and basically between the New River and the Alamo River. This irrigated agricultural valley is shared with Mexico, so the Imperial Valley has long been influenced by Mexico and has attracted a huge Mexican population for pretty obvious reasons. Imperial County, heavily dependent on irrigated crops, is also extremely poor and has huge unemployment rates.

Turnout is horrible, but the heavily Hispanic communities of El Centro, Brawley, Calexico, Calipatria and Westmorland would be PS strongholds, enough to make Imperial a PS stronghold. It is doubtful that the social conservatism of Hispanics could affect that considerably, but this is still California's most socially conservative county or close to it. Christine Boutin's socially conservative and economically moderate/'humanist' campaign in 2002 might have carried a special appeal in Imperial in 2002.

I'll summarize CA as a whole in my next post.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I give a sh**t. I find this concept fascinating.

I don't really know what else to say, though. California hasn't had any surprises.

[Jackson]

I think this is pretty fascinating, but I have no other comments due to not overly disagreeing with you over the various partisan strongholds. Can't wait to see the Pacific Northwest!

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California

In 1974, California would have voted solidly for Giscard, buoyed by big margins in the Bay Area's wealthier counties (Marin, San Mateo), a decent showing in the inner Bay Area and Alameda, strong performances in coastal and alpine areas, a landslide in the OC and San Diego, and decent showings elsewhere in SoCal. Mitterrand would have been limited to ancestrally Socialist-leaning areas in the Central Valley and timber counties in coastal and inland NoCal, in addition to PCF strongholds in Alameda, Contra Costa and SF. In 1981, it is likely that Giscard would have repeated his feat.

A distinct shift to the left would have begun in 1995, with strong results for Jospin in the runoff in the Bay Area, LA's growing Hispanic suburbs and throughout coastal California. Chirac would still have won, in part thanks to holding on to decent enough results in the Bay Area's wealthiest communities and a strong Asian vote for Chirac, especially in the OC.

In 2007, Royal would likely have won the state on a coalition resembling that of California Democrats: SoCal's multicultural areas, coastal liberalism and the Bay Area. In large part, especially in NoCal, her victory would come on the heels of strong vote transfers from Bayrou, fresh from a very strong performance in California in the first round. Nicolas Sarkozy was a bad candidate for the affluent liberal suburbanites, of which there are tons of in California, especially in NoCal. He certainly would do better in Marin and San Mateo than real-life Republicans, but he would have lost both counties by pretty decisive margins. Sarkozy would have done better in SoCal, where he was really the perfect candidate for middle-class white exurbanites in high-growth exurbia. Similar to PACA, Le Pen's 2007 result in California would be down considerably from his 2002 result, which would likely have been the strongest in years for the FN. The FN vote would evaporate from the OC, Inland Empire and Bakersfield. But the UMP's weakness in SoCal would be because of the growing Hispanic population, a demographic which Sarkozy would have had little appeal to at all.

The 2007 results in this scenario are a bit tough to work out, but something like 52-53% for Royal seems fair.

Given that the last cantonal and regional elections were fought in leftie landslide years, California's local government at a departmental and regional level would be solidly left-wing. The general council depends a lot on how the cantons would be worked out and how bad the rural over-representation would be. The PS would probably have gained control of California in 2004, further solidifying control in 2008 and 2011 - a year in which the FN would have returned to its former prominence. In the 2010 regionals and 2011 cantonals, the UMP would have been limited to inland rural areas of NoCal, the whiter parts of the Central Valley and the wealthier white parts of SoCal. The FN, on the other hand, would have done so well in SoCal that in 2011 it might have gained a few cantons in Kern County or the Inland Empire.

At the municipal level, California's largest cities would pretty much all lean to the PS. Los Angeles would certainly have been a PS stronghold for years at a municipal level, and internal divisions might be based more on ethnicity than anything else. San Francisco would have been governed by the PCF until the 1970s or so, but nowadays its local politics would be dominated by the PS. The Greens, unlike in LA, can certainly afford to mount a direct challenge to the PS in SF, and would have done so. It is likely that the 2014 municipal elections in SF would feature an epic showdown between PS and Greens. San Diego would be the most closely fought of the main municipal races, and would probably have been governed by the RPR between 1983 and 2008, being gained by the PS in a not-so-close race in that left-wing year. San Jose would be a PS stronghold at a municipal level.

Municipal politics in Fresno and Bakersfield would be heavily racial-based, and the results would depend on municipal boundaries and which areas they include or exclude. Still, Bakersfield would pretty certainly be the largest city governed by the UMP in California, though the FN would have gotten into the runoff in 1995 and maybe 2001. Sacramento, by its current boundaries, would be reliably left-leaning at a local level. Long Beach would see some close races, while Oakland would be a PS stronghold after having been the Red Belt's buckle until 1989 if not 1995.

2007

1995*

* Oklahoma revised, I have going to Chirac narrowly in 1995.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really didn't expect it going to Royal in 2007, but your analysis seems very convincing. Once you've finished the State-by-State analysis, I expect to see more maps of past elections and party strength !

[Хahar 🤔]

Sometime soon, I will go through all your posts about California and add my comments. Broadly agree with everything, of course.

I really didn't expect it going to Royal in 2007, but your analysis seems very convincing.

Not every state can vote for Sarkozy, at least not in an election as close as 2007. Remember that California gave more than 60% to Obama in 2008.

[Hash]

Here's a really short teaser of Oregon, because I'm too lazy/busy to do more for now.

Oregon

Oregon's politics in the past few years have been heavily influenced by the environmental movement, which has played a significant role in shifting voting patterns in many parts of the state, and has been able to "take control" of one political party, thereby affecting its electoral base significantly. In this scenario, the PS would likely not have been "taken over" by the  environmental movement or at least not entirely.

Southern Oregon

Coastal Southern Oregon is timber country, especially Coos County. The timber industry has long been the dominant economic activity in this region, but it has been in a period of decline for a good number of years and the region's economic makeup has changed quite a bit. Curry County, especially the coast around Port Orford, has seen an influx of pretty wealthy and relatively liberal Californian retirees. Curry and Coos have both been touched by an industry which is very powerful along the coast: tourism. Basically, the coastal regions of both counties (and parts of Douglas County) are tourist-oriented, while the inland areas are still relatively dependent on timber. Coos County especially has remained something of a unionized working-class lumber county, but quite conservative on social issues and very much opposed to the state's powerful environmental movement.

Coos would have been a PS stronghold, but Nicolas Sarkozy seems to be a fairly good candidate for Coos County's more conservative working-class, even if unionized. Coos is not too badly off and certainly not a decrepit working-class ghetto, so there would be no sizable FN vote. Coastal regions of Coos County are now more tourist-oriented, so they would vote PS, but for different reasons than Coquille and the inland lumber parts. Curry and Douglas, as well as inland Josephine County (Grants Pass) have a strong timber industry, but workers are not unionized, meaning that they would have a more pronounced right-wing Gaullist tradition. The influx of wealthy Californians in Curry and tourism around Grants Pass would have further helped the UMP's cause.

Even further inland is polarized Jackson County. Its main town, Medford, is actually a very right-wing town, but the other main town, Ashland, hosts a liberal arts college (SOU) and a Shakespeare festival, so it is predictably a hippie town. Medford would be UMP stronghold, as would the bulk of rural areas, but Ashland would be a left-wing stronghold comparable to Berkeley, SF or Seattle. The Greens would obviously fare very well in Ashland, as would the PS in presidential elections.

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Oregon

Willamette Valley

Eugene is an ultra-liberal college town (University of Oregon) with all that entails in terms of student and faculty. The uni has pretty much made it into an all around academia type of place, in contrast to next-door Springfield which is a far more conservative blue-collar working-class community historically dependent on the timber industry. Suburban communities are small but seem to be growing.

Politically, Eugene would be a left-wing stronghold with a huge Green vote. Springfield would traditionally have been the most PS-leaning of the two but a candidate like Sarkozy would have enjoyed a certain appeal in a place like Springfield. The rest of Lane County includes old working-class mill towns like Oakridge, former mill towns transitioning into suburbia and along the coast Florence is an affluent retiree/tourist resort. The UMP would have made headway in rural Lane County in recent years, especially in places like Junction City.

Slightly northwest of Eugene is Corvallis, another liberal college town (OSU). OSU used to be a fairly conservative campus by campus standards, but it is very much a liberal stronghold today. The added presence of a high-tech and biotech industry likely helps make Corvallis even more liberal. Its voting habits would be largely identical to that of Eugene. Outside Corvallis, the PS would find support in older mill towns like Philomath but also newfound support in rather affluent Corvallis suburbs. Sarkozy would have done well in places like Adair City or Alsea, in addition to the UMP's traditional base around affluent conservative suburban West Albany.

West Albany lays across from Albany, a pretty blue-collar town with a big manufacturing base and a non-unionized service industry. The rest of Linn is conservative working-class timber country. These workers do not seem to be unionized, meaning that there would be a more right-wing slant in local politics compared to counties such as Coos or rural Lane. The PS would have a base, largely in Albany I think, but Sarkozy would have performed well in 2007.

Along the coast, both Lincoln and Tillamook Counties have been influenced by the rise of the tourism industry, which adds to a blue-collar base in rural Lincoln and a strong dairy industry in rural Tillamook. The tourism industry has brought service jobs, fairly affluent seaside residents and its share of hippies. Lincoln is the most tourism-driven county, while Tillamook remains slightly more dependent on its dairy industry. Lincoln would be a PS stronghold and tourism would ultimately not change much to that. Tillamook would be more hesitant in its voting patterns, being a key swing county.

The state capital of Salem is to the right of most large cities in Oregon, but the public sector (stare government) is the largest local employer. While its surroundings, including largely Hispanic Woodburn, would lean to the right, Salem would have a small PS lean.

Polk and Yamhill Counties are two agricultural and/or timber-dependent counties in the Upper Willamette Valley. Despite Monmouth in Polk County being a college town, its campus is pretty conservative. Yamhill County increasingly attracts Portland metro area commuters. Viticulture is an important industry in Yamhill and Polk counties. A mix of exurbanization and the wine industry would make these two counties UMP strongholds.

Way up north at the mouth of the Columbia River is Clatsop County, a reliably Socialist stronghold. Astoria is an old working-class community (harbour with fishing, shipbuilding, canneries; nearby lumbering) but its harbour has since gone into a post-industrial tailspin which it has struggled to recover from. Astoria and other Pacific coast communities such as Cannon Beach or Seaside have found a solution in tourism, and Cannon Beach is a particularly affluent resort community. The environmental movement is strong in Clatsop County. Astoria has a large and historically politically influential Finnish community, which would likely have made the place a PCF stronghold until not too long ago. At any rate, with the exception of Warrenton, Astoria and Clatsop County would be a PS heartland.

Columbia is a major timber-producing county, leading to a blue-collar population which might have been politically influenced by a local Scandinavian (largely Finnish) population in places like Clatskanie. It does not seem to have been influenced much by exurban growth in the Portland metro area. Unionized, blue-collar and historically left-leaning, Columbia would be a PS stronghold.

Metro Portland

Portland would be the PS' home base in Oregon. Similar to Seattle, it is only slightly less affluent and liberal than Seattle. There is a strong blue-collar tradition in Portland, concentrated around the Port, but it is a largely white professional city today. It has been successful in attracting high-tech industries and other white-collar employers.

The city's old industrial hinterland west side has seen major urban renewal with the typical transformation into condos, lofts or artsy places attracting fairly upwardly-mobile yuppies. The Pearl District is the best example of such transformation. The west side also includes Portland State University. This would be a PS stronghold, with a strong Green vote.

Eastern Portland (on the east side of the river) has a more working-class tradition. There remains some old gentrified inner-city neighborhoods (King, Woodlawn) home to the bulk of Oregon's black community, next door to affluent Alameda-Irvington or gay areas near Sabin. The old working-class King has seen gentrification with a hippie community around Alberta Arts District, while Alameda-Irvington attract affluent young professionals. The PS would been very strong in working-class King and Woodlawn, but would face Green competition around Alameda-Irvington.

Northern Portland is a more residential lower middle-class/historically blue-collar neighborhood. There is a college campus (University of Portland) and the Port of Portland is in the working-class and ethnically diverse St. Johns area. Southeast Portland was also a fairly working-class neighborhood, but the Sunnyside/Hawthorne-Belmont has seen gentrification, becoming Portland's Haight-Ashbury. The other areas in the Southeast are fairly middle-class urban residential areas. The bobo places would have a strong Green vote, while the rest of the city would be fairly non-descript PS strongholds.

Further west, Gresham seems to be a middle-class suburb with a blue-collar tradition. I don't know much about it, but it would appear to be a politically divided though historically PS-leaning place where Sarkozy would have done particularly well in 2007.

Portland's suburbs include some fairly blue-collar areas. Milwaukie, just south of Portland, has historically been a working-class area, though currently experiencing urban renewal. South along the Willamette, Oregon City is also a town with a strong working-class (paper mills/lumber industry) tradition. Both would likely form the PS' base, but outside Oregon City and Milwaukie, the rest of Clackamas County is either rural or middle-class conservative suburbia. Some of this middle-class suburbia has a blue-collar past, and appear to be areas where Sarkozy would have done well in 2007.

Lake Oswego is an affluent suburb of Portland located on the west bank of the Willamette. Politically, this is likely an area which would have shifted to the left in recent years. The shift to the left would have been quite heavy in the Silicon Forest region around Beaverton and Hillsboro, both of which have attracted high-tech companies or tech giants such as IBM. Places such as Cedar Mills and West Haven-Sylvan are very affluent suburban communities. The high-tech industry has attracted the kind of people who would likely prefer the PS over Sarkozy's UMP. More rural communities lying on the outskirts of all this would still lean UMP.

Central Oregon

This is a region east of the Cascades, but whose politics are not identical to those of eastern Oregon. Hood River especially is quite unlike eastern Oregon, the city of Hood River itself is basically full of rich Portlanders, young professionals and hippies who all like to windsurf. There is a high-tech industry in Hood River, whose working-class past is basically history. Nearby Wasco County is home to those who can't afford either Portland or Hood River. It is a working-class place (there's a big dam on the river and a smelter near The Dalles), but apparently Google has moved there. Hood River would be left-wing, with a strong Green vote.

Deschutes County is Bend, which is a very fast-growing inland community which has attracted tourists but also tons of wealthy Californian retirees. Its politics are moderated by tourism, which entails a more left-wing base with tourism workers, but retirees from California would seem to be enough to make Bend and Deschutes a UMP base. Jefferson County has also seen an increase in tourism.

[Hash]

No comments on Oregon? The rest should be up tomorrow.

[Jackson]

I can't imagine what you have planned for Eastern Oregon will be all that interesting compared to the rest of the state, unless you intend to turn it into a CPNT stronghold.

Great work on the rest of the state btw.

[greenforest32]

I give a sh**t. I find this concept fascinating.

I don't really know what else to say, though. California Oregon hasn't had any surprises.

[Hash]

Oregon

Eastern Oregon

Fairly clearly, the bulk of this region would be UMP strongholds. The Columbia Plateau region in northeastern Oregon has an economy based on wheat, hydroelectricity and a limited timber industry. Wilderness tourism and hunting is also important. The SFIO or PCF would have been strong in northeastern counties such as Wallowa back when timber was still important. Pendleton is a regional trade center, while La Grande in Union County is a college town (EOU). This would be a UMP region, with a sizable CPNT vote perhaps boosted by the unpopularity of federal land ownership and state environmental regulations.

The arid land of the High Desert and Harney Basin are cattle-grazing and livestock ranching countries. Malheur County, which serves as the hub of the High Desert and is closely connected with Idaho, has a large Basque population. This would be the most solidly right-wing region in Oregon and perhaps the whole Pacific NW.

Conclusions on Oregon

Oregon would have been a PS-leaning state for quite some time. Giscard could have carried it narrowly in 1974, but it would probably would have voted for Mitterrand in 1981, 1988 and for Jospin in 1995. The Willamette Valley and southwestern Oregon's unionized timber counties would be the base of the PS. However, the local PS would have to deal with a very powerful Green Party in the state, which could have won up to 20%+ of the vote in 2009 by 'stealing' traditional urban middle-class PS voters in the Portland Metro and in some coastal counties or the uni counties.

At the municipal level, Portland would be a PS stronghold and that for quite some time, although it may have elected PCF mayors in the 1950s. Eugene would also be a PS town, but the Greens would be in a position to elect one of their own. Salem would be more closely fought between UMP and PS, with the PS winning out in 2008.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great updates.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Great updates.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Great piece of work overall, Green Mountain Hashemite. You've inspired me to do a similar work, except using UK political parties instead of French ones.

[Hash]

OK, so I might get back to doing this, time permitting.

Washington

Seattle

Seattle has a working-class past but a far more white-collar present, which makes it a rather interesting city. It would probably be a PS stronghold these days, but the right could have controlled the city's town hall for a good number of years prior to 1977. There was also a pretty active left-wing union movement during its shipbuilding days, which would likely have resulted in the PCF being the largest left-wing party until the 60s.

As I've gotten into the habit of doing, I'll run through the neighborhoods (in general) in a north-south fashion, so here goes.

North Seattle is a white and fairly middle-class residential area. Large swathes of it appear to be non-descript urban middle-class areas, with the areas lining Lake Washington or Puget Sound being slightly more affluent. It would most likely be more or less solidly PS, though with a UMP which can poll far better than actual Republicans do. In the southeast, along Lake Washington, the neighborhoods of Windemere, Laurelhurst and Hawthorne Hills are some of the most affluent places in Seattle. They are liberal, but I would think that they would have a traditional inclination to the right, and while Sarkozy might have won in those neighborhoods in 2007, Bayrou would have performed extremely well in the first round.

A bit west of these affluent strongholds, the neighborhood of Ravenna and the whole University District is younger, less affluent and considerably more left-wing, influenced by the faculty and students of the University of Washington. Alongside neighboring Wallingford, Green Lake and especially Fremont - which are artsy counterculture hip areas - this whole area would be solidly left-wing with a very strong Green vote in most years, and a PS vote for President. Fremont has been called a soviet republic by some, and while it wouldn't vote PCF, it might have had a strong vote for Besancenot in 2002 in 2007. Ballard, which historically had a large Scandinavian population, seems to be similarly hip and liberal. It would likewise be a left-wing stronghold.

On the other said of those bays separating the two parts of Seattle, we encounter Magnolia, an upper middle-class neighborhood which would presumably be more or less safely PS, with a decent UMP core vote. Separated by working-class PS stronghold Interbay, Queen Anne is a similarly affluent middle-class neighborhood, though slightly less affluent and more inner-city artsy liberal in Lower Queen Anne. It would vote like Magnolia.

In the downtown core, Capitol Hill would be the city's top bobo left stronghold. It has a large gay population, complementing a general artsy/bobo kind of place. Usually a Green stronghold, it would vote PS in presidential and perhaps legislative elections. Cascade and Lake Union are slightly less artsy, but would be generally quite similar.

Montlake and especially Broadmoor and Madison Park are extremely affluent areas, Broadmoor is even a gated affluent community. Broadmoor would be a UMP stronghold, while Montlake and Madison Park would still lean UMP though with a much stronger centrist vote, expressed through a strong result for Bayrou in 2007. Along Lake Washington, Denny-Blaine and Leschi are also affluent neighborhoods, though the PS would be stronger.

The downtown core has a mix of lower-income areas, higher-income spots and artsy places. Belltown and the waterfront are pretty boboish neighborhoods, though the waterfront is much more of a gentrified and growingly affluent area with condos. Given the labour radicalism of longshoremen, the waterfront's docks would likely have been hotbeds of social agitation when they were still booming. The UMP might have pockets of support in some affluent spots, but there would be a strong bobo PS and Green vote overall.

The Central District area has historically been the heart of Seattle's black community, and historically a low-income inner-city area. But it has seen a decline in its black population, gentrification and the replacement of low-income blacks with middle-class bobo young professionals. Madrona has seen similar shifts. PS strongholds in the past, they would still be very left-wing, but with a stronger Green presence than in the past.

Seattle's South End is more ethnically diverse, less affluent and historically far more working-class.

The Rainier Valley is an ethnically diverse area, with a large Asian (Filipino, Chinese) and black population mixed in with a few working-class whites and an increasingly large presence of young professionals, in areas such as Columbia City. Generally working-class or lower middle-class, it is not very affluent and crime has been a problem. Politically, the area would be a PS stronghold, but with a strong Green vote in places such as Columbia City.

Along the lakeshore, Rainier Beach is a fairly low-income working-class area with a large black and Asian population, as is Dunlap. Seward Park is whiter and wealthier. Like the Rainier Valley, the PS would be very much in dominance here.

Beacon Hill is the centre of Seattle's Asian population, largely Filipino or Chinese. While more liberal than other Asian areas, it is still a fairly lower middle-class area. The PS would dominate the political field in Beacon Hill, likewise in the city's Chinatown/International District closer to downtown.

The old Industrial District has seen gentrification in parts (SoDo is an artsy neighborhood), while other industrial and working-class neighborhoods such as Georgetown or South Park have remained fairly lower middle-class. The PS would be dominant. Delridge is a similar story, largely white (with black or Hispanic pockets) and a residential lower middle-class area.

West Seattle, along Puget Sound, is whiter and wealthier. Alki, Seaview and North Admiral are pretty affluent upper middle-class residential neighborhoods. The UMP would likely retain significant strength, but there would be a strong centrist vote and an ever-increasing PS vote.

Seattle-King County Suburbs

Bellevue is King County's main suburb. It is a booming upper middle-class financial and retail hub with a large base of tech companies, driven by Microsoft which is based in next-door Redmond. It also has a sizable foreign-born and Asian community. It is socially liberal but more moderate on fiscal issues, meaning that it would traditionally have been a right-wing base (not stronghold, though) but Royal would likely have performed very well (as would Bayrou). The tech aspect and the Asian community would make it less right-wing than its affluence would indicate. The UMP would have done pretty awfully in Bellevue since 2008. The adjacent very affluent city of Medina would be a UMP stronghold, while I guess Mercer Island would be like Bellevue.

Going towards Renton, Newcastle is an old mining community but now is an upper middle-class suburban community, leaning UMP. Renton, however, has a far more blue-collar population and far poorer than surrounding communities. It also has a significant black population, shared with next-door low-income suburban Skyway-Bryn Mawr. Boeing is by far the largest employer, giving Renton a big base of blue-collar aviation workers. It would be a PS stronghold.

Burien is a leafy middle-class suburban community and seems to be fairly liberal and professional in its population makeup. I don't know what else to say besides that it would be a swing voting community, likely going for Royal in 2007 and solidifying its left-wing leanings since then. Normandy Park is more affluent, and would probably lean to the right.

SeaTac and Tukwila are less affluent and less suburban. SeaTac includes the airport, the corporate headquarters for Alaska Air Group. Boeing is a major employer in both communities. Tukwila especially has struggled with poverty and urban decline in the past. Both would be reliably left-wing, PS-voting regions. I would wager Kent, further south, but a commercial and manufacturing hub for the likes of Boeing, would also be left-leaning most of the time, with a small FN base and not insignificant UMP presence.

Des Moines is a middle-class suburb, and would lean PS. Auburn seems to a fairly middle-class residential suburban community, though there are both pockets of deprivation and more affluent exurban type planned communities. Federal Way provides much employment with timber giant Weyerhaeuser, which is based there. Federal Way is also, in general, more affluent than either Auburn or Kent. The PS would dominate in Auburn and Federal Way, but the UMP would retain more of a presence in Federal Way. The FN would have a small presence in Auburn and Federal Way.

The outskirts of places like Renton, Kent or Auburn (Covington, Cascade-Fairwood, East Hill-Meridian) are pretty much affluent high-growth kinda-exurban developments, I suspect most of them would lean slightly to the right, but could have voted PS in 2012. The FN would be somewhat relevant, but would not poll very strongly. Rural southeastern King County would be UMP territory.

The Snoqualmie Valley in King County is an old working-class (timber) area which has been transformed into affluent suburbia or touristy country with a share of hippies. Strongly PS in the past, it would still be reliably left-wing but with a solid base for parties such as the Greens or Bayrou.

Getting back into actual suburbia, the very affluent communities of Sammamish and Issaquah would be swing voting areas, with the UMP retaining the advantage in Sammamish but the PS likely a bit stronger in Issaquah. Suburban high-tech capital Redmond would lean - and trend - to the left, with a fairly strong centrist and Green presence. I would wager that highly educated middle-class suburbs such as Shoreline, Lake Forest Park, Kirkland, Kenmore, Woodinville and Kingsgate would lean to the left as well, increasingly so in recent years.

[Hash]

Washington

(remnants of) Puget Sound

Tacoma is an old working-class city with a long history of labour activism. Tacoma's harbour and the longshoremen  who worked there (known for their radical politics) were once the heart of the city's economy, but it has since declined somewhat. Tacoma has steered clear of urban blight and decline and managed gentrification well, but there remains large low-income and/or minority populations in part of southern and eastern Tacoma. Tacoma would have been a PCF/PS stronghold for years and years, and the PS would still remain the dominant party, especially in lower-income areas, but it would also poll well in gentrified middle-class north Tacoma. The PCF, however, would hardly be a factor, after having been dominant in the 1950s. The UMP might have a solid presence in affluent northeast Tacoma. While the FN would have been strong in 1984, 1986 and even 1988; it would no longer be a factor in 2012.

The rest of Pierce County would likely lean to the right, with the UMP performing strongest around the military bases and in the middle-class exurbia to the east of Tacoma (including Puyallup, Edgewood). The PS would be strong in the lower income parts of Lakewood and Parkland, and it would be gaining strength in University Park.

The state capital, Olympia, has a large public sector population in addition to a vibrant cultural scene and a generally socially liberal middle-class feel. The PS would be, naturally, very strong in Olympia but the Greens would likely have beaten them out quite badly in 2009 and it would always be at risk from a very strong Bayrou-like candidate (Bayrou would have polled very well in 2007).

Shifting north to Snohomish County, the PS' main base there would be Everett - Boeing city - and a fairly blue-collar city though not a very deprived one. The PS would be very strong in lower-income and ethnically diverse areas along Highway 99 from the county line, into Lynnwood and southern Everett. It would also be strong in downtown Everett. The more affluent - in some cases very affluent - communities along the waterfront (Edmonds, Mukilteo) are professional middle-class suburbs and would be swing voting communities, though I would think the PS would have gained a lot in recent years and would now have the upper hand in Edmonds and come very close to the UMP in Mukilteo.

North Creek, Mill Creek and especially Cathcart are similarly affluent middle-class professional suburbs located inland. The UMP would be strong here, but definitely not immune to PS gains in recent years, gains produced in part by Seattle sprawl.

Marysville is a fairly exurban place north of Everett, it seems to be very sprawly and stuff. It would seem to be a place where the PS would be strong, but I wouldn't count out the UMP. Besides that in Snohomish County, there seems to be hippies in the mountains (in old working-class towns) who would vote PS, the rez in Tulalip (strongly PS) and sprawl which would probably go UMP.

[morgieb]

One question, what would the 2012 French election look like if it was relayed in the US?

[Хahar 🤔]

Sometime soon, I will go through all your posts about California and add my comments. Broadly agree with everything, of course.

Ah, crap.