Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The only thing the ALP will bury (I would argue, has buried) is themselves.

The thing to consider, in history, even recent history, Governments have come back from worse positions than this.

These declarations about the end of the ALP are vastly overstated.

But how they react over the next 3-4 months will determine their future.

The coalition has several key weaknesses, the key being Tony Abbott himself.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol... when you had the Liberals ripping each other to shreds in the last months of 2009, no one... NO ONE thought the Libs would get themselves in place to help bring down an elected PM, and almost win the election less than a year later.

The focus turns to beating an opposition, hence why I think what happens over the next 3-4 months will be what matters.

The ALP certainly have the ability to continue to self-destruct, but they equally have the ability to pull themselves together and win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is there any hope of a Coalition leadership spill in the remotely foreseeable future or is the Australian right up Abbott Creek without a paddle for the remainder of this Parliament?

At the rate things are going? Not a chance.

I agree, if this continues, Abbott is untouchable.

But if the ALP are able to gain momentum by finally presenting a contrast to Abbott... and if he's seen as the Achilles Heel he is, then the internal divides in the Coalition will become exposed. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Interesting commentary on Sky News.

The average size of victory in successful Labor leadership challenges since 1982 has been 7 votes, even Rudd only won in 2006 49-39.

Gillard's expected margin, up to 44 votes, would be the largest margin in a leadership spill.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gillard wins: 73 - 29

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Maybe now Labor can start the recovery effort before the election. I can't see Rudd being truly quietened, but at least this should stop the media speculation a little bit.

I think it will shut up a lot of people both within the party and in the journalistic class, not all, but this size of victory is just too big for many journalists to bother spending as much time on it as they have.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rudd clearly jumped the gun on this one; he should've waited until after Gillard's (presumptive) defeat and resignation before launching his bid.

Yes and no.

Rudd clearly completely underestimated how much his colleagues feared his return.

A lot of this comes down to a different style of leadership when in a party. The Liberal Party is about hierarchy, what the leader wants, the leader usually gets (unless you're a very wet Lib, a la Turnbull), so they have a very presidential style.

The ALP, despite having very strong leaders, Whitlam, Hawke, Keating etc etc the ALP has always been about the caucus... Gillard's asset and also her flaw is that she demonstrates the capacity for compromise and negotiation that Rudd clearly lacked, but Rudd's strong personal leadership doesn't work within the ALP (although it is popular with the public), especially when you think you can lead a party just because you're personally popular.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Reports of a re-count... sigh.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Confirmed: Gillard - 71-31! My prediction was right!!!!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Leaving to promote healing and renewal.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

First post-spill Newspoll... a mix of news.

Primary
ALP: 31% down 4%
Coalition: 43% down 2%
Greens: 12% up 1%

TPP:
ALP: 47% - steady
Coalition: 53% - steady


Preferred PM
Gillard: 39% up 2%
Abbott: 37% down 1%

Satisfaction
Gillard: 28% up 2%
Abbott: 32% up 1%

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 62% down 2%
Abbott: 58% up 1%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Latest poll... and it's UGLY

Primary
ALP: 27% (-2)
Coalition: 51% (+3)
Greens: 11% (-1)

TPP
ALP: 41% (-3)
Coalition: 59% (+3)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 36% (-2)
Abbot: 41% (nc)


What is clear to me is this, the Government has not been able to combine the public dislike of Abbott to the vote his party receives. Which is a reverse of the way it usually works. The Coalition is a far more hierarchical party, generally if the leader is unpopular, the party goes down. Which represents a HUGE failure of the Government.

The Government is putting its faith in a) the benefits of the carbon price (ie getting more back than you're going to pay out) and confidence in the economy...

However, the hatchet job the Coalition have done to denigrate the most stable economy in the Industrialised world is quite remarkable.

This is being combined with the tactic employed by the NSW and QLD Oppositions before their landslides. Small target, attack the Government, but don't put policies that will put the focus on you... and it works.

The Government has ONE shot, and one shot only...
1. do not get rid of the PM - it reeks of desperation, and likely just sacrifices a potential future leader
2. Focus on Abbott - you cannot win this by being completely positive - people are starting to switch off - give them a reason to listen to you
3. You have a BRILLIANT record to run on, but seem unable to capitalise on it. FIRE your PR people and get new people in, now.
4. Create a circuit-breaker... it's what saved Howard in 2001 when he was facing certain doom... force the Libs to take a position on a high-profile issue...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Latest Newspoll... slight Budget bounce for ALP

Primary
ALP: 30% (+3)
Coalition: 45% (-6)
Greens: 12% (+1)

TPP
ALP: 45% (+4)
Coalition: 55% (-4)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 36% (NC)
Abbott: 40% (-1)

It's not in Gillard's nor the Independent's interests to have an election... which, even if Gillard goes down without one... Abbott would certainly want immediately.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New newspoll, continued 'positive' trend for the Government... Abbott's personal numbers drop to 2009 lows...

Primary
ALP: 32% (+2)
Coalition: 46% (+1)
Greens: 12% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 46% (+1)
Coalition: 54% (-1)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 40% (+4)
Abbott: 37% (-3)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 30% (+3)
Abbott: 31% (-3)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 60% (-3)
Abbott: 60% (+4)


So... brief analysis...

Abbott's attacks on Craig Thomson appeared to have back-fired, amplifying the Coalition's biggest single weakness, Tony Abbott's aggressive style.

So in the last month
Primary
ALP: +5
Coalition: -5

TPP
ALP: +5
Coalition: -5

Preferred PM
Gillard: +4
Abbott: -4

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

IF (the worker visa thing this week may have a negative impact next fortnight) the government can get to 34-35% and get the coalition down to maybe 42-43%... this becomes a horse-race for the first time since the election...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-31/gillard-faces-down-mining-bosses/4043276

This is certainly one of Gillard's biggest policy pluses... it's one of her genuinely popular issues... she needs to drive it home and put Abbott on the wrong side...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New newspoll, Coalition's primary vote drops a little, ALP stalls... but Gillard's personal numbers improving, now 4% ahead of Abbott and with lower dissatisfaction and higher satisfaction than Abbott for the first time since Feb/March.

Primary
ALP: 31% (-1)
Coalition: 44% (-2)
Greens: 14% (+2)

TPP
ALP: 46% (NC)
Coalition: 54% (NC)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 42% (+2)
Abbott: 38% (+1)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 32% (+2)
Abbott: 32% (+1)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 58% (-2)
Abbott: 59% (-1)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://newmatilda.com/2012/07/13/nsw-rights-american-playbook

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I agree, one of the best in years.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Alan Jones trolls Gillard.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/latest/14996717/gillards-father-died-of-shame-alan-jones/

It was absolutely disgusting...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Gillard loses the election in 2016 Roxon will be Labor leader.

Trust me anyone who has to deal with her personally will not want that...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What's hilarious is watching Abbott's face during this...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

While I think she's venting a bit of the hurt over the Alan Jones comments, I think she DESPERATELY needs to get the left back on side after the SSM votes and the asylum-seeker changes... they've been wanting a full-throated personal attack on Abbott... I don't doubt that she genuinely feels this, but she's not going to express such high levels of personal rancour without considering the consequences...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

Primary vote
ALP: 36% (+3)
Coalition: 41% (-4)
Greens: 10% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 50% (+3)
Coalition: 50% (-3)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 45% (+2)
Abbott: 34% (+1)

Satisfaction
Gillard: 34% (-1)
Abbott: 30% (-3)

Dissatisfaction
Gillard: 51% (-1)
Abbott: 58% (-3)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott could be in trouble soon, no?

If Abbott hasn't rebounded within the next few months, there will be TREMENDOUS internal pressure...