Morning Consult: Biden +9
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Author Topic: Morning Consult: Biden +9  (Read 1492 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« on: August 22, 2020, 10:39:40 AM »
MC’s first post-convention poll finds no bump for Biden, although his favorable rating increases to a new high.

Biden: 52% (+1)
Trump: 43% (-)

Hillary Clinton lead 43-40% in her post-convention MC poll four years ago.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/22/post-dnc-poll-biden-leads-trump/
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2020, 10:40:38 AM »
An expected result.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2020, 10:40:54 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see polling stay in the same general range it's been in since early June.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2020, 10:41:42 AM »

Yeah. People already know who Trump and Biden are. The opinions of the candidates in prior elections were never as baked-in as this one.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2020, 10:53:07 AM »
I mean technically it was a 1 pt bump Wink

More importantly, Biden's favorability rose, to 51/45, +6.

That continues to be the major difference this entire cycle, where Biden is +6 net fav, and Trump is -12. An 18 pt difference is pretty damn huge.

Also, we all should've realized back in 2016 that it was going to be a mess when even after the convention, there was still nearly 20% undecided.
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Rand
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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2020, 10:56:47 AM »
52% popular vote support.

51% approval rating.

100% the next president.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2020, 10:58:38 AM »
Quote from: ReapSow on August 22, 2020, 10:56:47 AM
52% popular vote support.

51% approval rating.

100% the next president.

Hillary Clinton would’ve sold her soul for these polling numbers.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2020, 11:05:49 AM »
Shows the amount of buyers remorse that voters had with Trump, is the same as they had in reelecting Bush W, they both couldnt manage a natural disaster,  Katrina or Covid 19
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Rand
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« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2020, 12:13:26 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on August 22, 2020, 10:58:38 AM
Quote from: ReapSow on August 22, 2020, 10:56:47 AM
52% popular vote support.

51% approval rating.

100% the next president.

Hillary Clinton would’ve sold her soul for these polling numbers.

She did. She sold the soul of the DNC. Explains the Satanism.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2020, 12:17:44 PM »
It's funny that all Trump and McConnell has to do is pass the Heros Act, giving more stimulus checks, that McCain would agree with if he was in the Senate,  but that is too much like right and rather lose than give more $$$
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2020, 02:22:43 PM »
« Edited: August 23, 2020, 01:59:01 PM by ProudModerate2 »
Almost two months until election day, and we are still seeing high single-digit (or low double-digit) national polls showing a Biden lead.
Love it.
Smiley
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Pulaski
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« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2020, 04:54:04 PM »
Seems to line up with what I predicted - barely a “bump” at all, but an increase in favourables suggests a few of those anti-Trump voters are now a little more excited about Biden, meaning they’re less likely to flip back. If Trump can’t get a bump from his convention then I really struggle to see a path to victory for him.
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Mike88
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« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2020, 05:00:52 PM »
Biden's lead is already considerably large, 9-10%, meaning that a "convention bump" was very unlikely. There's basically no where to grow as Trump has a solid base of around 40%. What will be curious to see is if, after the RNC, Trump gets a bump.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2020, 05:57:55 PM »
Quote from: Mike88 on August 22, 2020, 05:00:52 PM
Biden's lead is already considerably large, 9-10%, meaning that a "convention bump" was very unlikely. There's basically no where to grow as Trump has a solid base of around 40%. What will be curious to see is if, after the RNC, Trump gets a bump.

Yeah, if more polling suggests this, I would say that my expectations for it were met too. This election just may have opinions of the candidates too baked in already for any real movement to occur. If Trump doesn't get a bump of any kind then Biden will almost certainly remain in the stable position he's maintained since April or so.

It wasn't a complete loss though. Biden came out of the convention with a lot of money raised and potentially more confidence in him as a candidate and in his message.
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Horus
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2020, 06:00:43 PM »
Encouraging, but not good enough.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2020, 08:10:56 PM »
Quote from: Horus on August 22, 2020, 06:00:43 PM
Encouraging, but not good enough.

Why is it not good enough?
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2020, 08:17:01 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2020, 08:31:57 PM by Monstro »
Quote from: Horus on August 22, 2020, 06:00:43 PM
Encouraging, but not good enough.
Roll Eyes
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Horus
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« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2020, 08:35:29 PM »

Factor in post office shenanigans, a shy Trump vote, possible convention bounce and Trump's EC advantage. Biden has to be to by at least 10-11 to win since a solid 10% of votes for him will probably be "lost" or "invalid." He has to win on level of 1980. We no longer live in a fully functioning democracy.
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Pericles
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« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2020, 04:04:56 AM »
Quote from: Horus on August 22, 2020, 08:35:29 PM

Factor in post office shenanigans, a shy Trump vote, possible convention bounce and Trump's EC advantage. Biden has to be to by at least 10-11 to win since a solid 10% of votes for him will probably be "lost" or "invalid." He has to win on level of 1980. We no longer live in a fully functioning democracy.

How convenient that Biden is only up by 9% then? If he was up by 15%, you'd say he needs to win by 16%. If he was up by 20%, you'd say he needs to win by 21%. If he was up by 30%, you'd say he needs to win by 31%.
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Horus
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2020, 05:01:21 AM »
Quote from: President Pericles on August 23, 2020, 04:04:56 AM
Quote from: Horus on August 22, 2020, 08:35:29 PM

Factor in post office shenanigans, a shy Trump vote, possible convention bounce and Trump's EC advantage. Biden has to be to by at least 10-11 to win since a solid 10% of votes for him will probably be "lost" or "invalid." He has to win on level of 1980. We no longer live in a fully functioning democracy.

How convenient that Biden is only up by 9% then? If he was up by 15%, you'd say he needs to win by 16%. If he was up by 20%, you'd say he needs to win by 21%. If he was up by 30%, you'd say he needs to win by 31%.

No, 10% really is the number he has to win by. 15% would be fine.
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Pericles
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2020, 09:58:34 PM »
Quote from: Horus on August 23, 2020, 05:01:21 AM
Quote from: President Pericles on August 23, 2020, 04:04:56 AM
Quote from: Horus on August 22, 2020, 08:35:29 PM

Factor in post office shenanigans, a shy Trump vote, possible convention bounce and Trump's EC advantage. Biden has to be to by at least 10-11 to win since a solid 10% of votes for him will probably be "lost" or "invalid." He has to win on level of 1980. We no longer live in a fully functioning democracy.

How convenient that Biden is only up by 9% then? If he was up by 15%, you'd say he needs to win by 16%. If he was up by 20%, you'd say he needs to win by 21%. If he was up by 30%, you'd say he needs to win by 31%.

No, 10% really is the number he has to win by. 15% would be fine.

But why? What basis or evidence do you have for saying that?
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2020, 07:07:29 AM »
Quote from: President Pericles on August 23, 2020, 09:58:34 PM
Quote from: Horus on August 23, 2020, 05:01:21 AM
Quote from: President Pericles on August 23, 2020, 04:04:56 AM
Quote from: Horus on August 22, 2020, 08:35:29 PM

Factor in post office shenanigans, a shy Trump vote, possible convention bounce and Trump's EC advantage. Biden has to be to by at least 10-11 to win since a solid 10% of votes for him will probably be "lost" or "invalid." He has to win on level of 1980. We no longer live in a fully functioning democracy.

How convenient that Biden is only up by 9% then? If he was up by 15%, you'd say he needs to win by 16%. If he was up by 20%, you'd say he needs to win by 21%. If he was up by 30%, you'd say he needs to win by 31%.

No, 10% really is the number he has to win by. 15% would be fine.

But why? What basis or evidence do you have for saying that?

Star maths and wishy thinking.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2020, 07:37:12 AM »
Someone else/don't know/no opinion 6%

August 21, 2020
4377 likely voters
MoE: 1%


Previous MC poll in this release:
Biden 51%
Trump 43%
Someone else/don't know/no opinion 7%

August 17, 2020
4141 likely voters
MoE: 2%
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