2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

For the Karnataka 15 by-election mini-assembly election.  The 15 assembly districts results for 2018 was

                     Seats        Vote share
BJP                   0              31.54%
INC                 11              45.51%
INC rebel           0               1.11%
JD(S)                3              17.41%
KPJP                 1                2.42%

All 15 winners defected to BJP with 14 of them re-nominated by the BJP as the BJP candidate.    In only 5 out of the 15 seats was JD(S) relevant in 2018.  In 12 out of 15 seats was the BJP reverent in 2018.  In 14 out of the 15 seats was the INC relevant. 

I made some assumptions on how some of the votes might swing in terms of how much these turncoat winners from 2018 could transfer to BJP and I came up with this as the my random guess on the results

                     Seats        Vote share
BJP                   9              43.60%
INC                   5              40.19%
JD(S)                1              14.20%

I made no attempt to model out what the impact of BJP rebels would be but as it is the result seems pretty close to what the exit polls are saying.   

The C-voter exit poll was fairly negative on the BJP rebels vote share and impact and had

                     Seats        Vote share
BJP                 10              47.1%
INC                   4             35.7%
JD(S)                1              12.6%

[jaichind]

After 2 out of 5 phases of voting in Jharkhand, just like in LS elections, rural tribal turnout is up while urban turnout seems to be flat or down.  In the LS election it turnout surge in rural and tribal areas turned out to be a Modi wave.  It was read back then as a tribal surge against the BJP Jharkhand state government.   Unless this is a repeat of a vote for Modi but for an assembly election, then this overall is bad news for BJP.

[jaichind]

Karnataka by-elections counting to take place soon

 

This is really a re-run of the 2011 Karnataka by-elections.  The BJP in the 2008 Karnataka assembly election won 110 out of 224 seats and headed a minority government with outside support from various independents.  After a while the BJP which had Yediyurappa as CM like today, got a few INC and JD(S) rebels to defect, resign, and then run as BJP candidates in a series of by-elections.  The BJP won most of those by-elections and achieved its majority.  This time around it is the same thing but with BJP at 105 (BJP won 104 in the 2018 assembly elections but got a pro-INC independent to join the BJP.)

[jaichind]

With about a 1/3 of the vote counted the Karnataka by-elections is

               Seats     Vote Share
BJP           12           48.4%
BJP rebel    1             2.2%
INC            2           31.2%
JD(S)         0           15.2%

C-Voter exit poll vote share seems very accurate so far

[jaichind]

With almost all the votes counted in the Karnataka by-elections

               Seats     Vote Share
BJP           12           50.3%
BJP rebel    1             3.2%  (backed by JD(S))
INC            2           31.3%
JD(S)         0           12.0%

BJP will now have a majority government in Karnataka.   Most impressively for BJP is in a couple of seats where BJP has no social base it managed to win, with defectors, of course.

[jaichind]

In Jharkhand it is clear that BJP CM Raghubar Das is not that popular which is dragging down the BJP brand but Modi remains very popular.  So the BJP is really locking up Raghubar Das like a crazy uncle and putting Modi-Shah out there as the face of the party.  JMM is avoiding attacking Modi (learning their less from the 2019 LS election when they were burned by the Modi wave) but instead spending all their time attacking Raghubar Das and the deteriorating economy.  INC which is a direct rival to BJP at the national level is attacking Modi/BJP but in a much toned down way.

[jaichind]

There seems to be a growing consensus within both BJP and JMM-INC that neither bloc will achieve majority which means post-elections alliances will play a key role.  Clearly the BJP should target AJSU although there are signs that AJSU is getting more adverse to having a post-election alliance with BJP.  As a result the BJP seem to be sending feelers to JVM for a possible post-election alliance.  On the JMM-INC side they seems to be in contact with AJSU for a possible post-election alliance.

[jaichind]

The large scale anti-CAA protests across urban India most likely will work in BJP's favor in Jharkhand assembly elections.  While it will push away what is left of the Muslim vote for BJP but it should work to consolidate the OBC vote around the BJP. 

[jaichind]

Voting in 5th and last phase done in Jharkhand done.  Exit polls coming out.

Axis My India has JMM-INC-RJD with a narrow majority

                     seats   vote share
JMM-INC-RJD    44         37%
BJP                  27         34%
AJSU                 4           9%
JVM                   3           6%
OTHER               3         14%

BJP-AJSU split cost it dearly



ABP exit poll has it hung with BJP the vote share winner but behind in terms of seats

                     seats   vote share
JMM-INC-RJD    35         34%
BJP                  32         37%
AJSU                 5           7%
JVM                   3           8%
OTHER               6         14%




As the incumbent party all this does not look good for the BJP

[jaichind]

Detailed breakdown of CVoter-ABP exit poll

Curiously no breakdown by community.  But 2nd and 5th phase are in heavy tribal areas and that is where JMM-INC-RJD did well so we can infer that BJP got hammered in the tribal vote.

[jaichind]

Kashish exit poll

JMM-INC-RJD     44
BJP                    28
AJSU                   3
JVM                    3
OTHERS              3

[jaichind]

Given the momentum of these exit polls it seems likely that JMM's  Hemant Soren who was former CM and son JMM leader Shibu Soren is set to be CM of Jharkhand again at the head of a JMM-INC-RJD government on the back of a swing of the tribal vote away from BJP

[jaichind]

VDP exit poll

                      Seats       Vote share
JMM-INC-RJD    37              37.18%
BJP                  35               37.00%
AJSU                 3                 5.15%
JVM                   1                 6.38%
OTHERS             5              (2 CPI(ML) 1 MCO 1 NCP 1 IND)



OTHERS have an anti-BJP lean.  BJP cannot form government on this sort of seat breakdown.  Only way is some sort of BJP-JMM deal which is fairly unlikely

Breakdown by community


BJP not doing as well with Hindu tribal and Upper Castes which seems to imply some sort of resentment at BJP focused on OBCs.  AJSU did well with Kurmis (or Mahto) community which is classified as OBC but has tribal origins.  On the flip side the BJP did better than expected with Dalits.  RJD's strength with Yadav did pull them into the JMM-INC-RJD orbit.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Spick Media Network exit poll has it at

JMM-INC-RJD       42
BJP                     27
AJSU                    4
JVM                      4
OTHERS               4

[jaichind]

TimesNow exit poll seems to have it at

JMM-INC-RJD         44
BJP                       28
AJSU                       0
JVM                         3
OTHERS                   6



0 for AJSU is a surprise.  BJP did not run a candidate against AJSU leader Sudesh Mahto so he is expected to win his seat with implicit BJP support

[jaichind]

VDP exit poll for CM preference

Raghubar Das-26% (current BJP CM, OBC)
Hemant Soren-25% (ex-CM and JMM CM candidate)
Babulal Marandi -13% (ex-CM and JVM leader and CM candidate)
Anyone appointed by Sonia Gandhi-13% (INC)
Arjun Munda-10% (ex-CM and BJP tribal leader, rival of Raghubar Das)
Saryu Roy-3% (BJP rebel)

No idea why they did not poll AJSU leader and current DCM Sudesh Mahto.

Raghubar Das+Arjun Munda support is 36% which roughly equal to BJP vote share (37%)
Hemant Soren+Anyone appointed by Sonia Gandhi is 38% which is roughly equal to JMM-INC-RJD vote share (37.18%)
Babulal Marandi at 13% is well above JVM vote share of 6.38%

Babulal Marandi support much higher than expected and could indicate that JVM is underestimated.

[jaichind]

VDP exit poll reports that BJP got hammered the first and second phase but recovered starting the third phase which implies that the CAB (now CAA) did help BJP consolidate the OBC vote.  VDP says that BJP CM Raghubar Das is very unpopular and that BJP faced a wiped out if it was not for Modi and the CAB issue that polarized the electorate along Hindu/Muslim lines and really helped with Dalits for BJP.  This mostly fits my guess as well although looking at other exit polls most likely it was not enough  to save BJP from defeat. 

[jaichind]

One thing is for sure.  If the more pro-BJP exit polls comes to pass and no party or bloc has a majorith then that would be a boom for resort owners as there will be large scale hiding of various MLA delegations in resorts/5 start hotels to prevent poaching while the various parties negotiated deals to form a government.  My sense is that the ruling party tends to under-perform exit polls and JMM-INC-RJD should get a majority or very close to it as to make it difficult for BJP to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

[jaichind]

NDTV poll of polls has it at

JMM-INC-RJD   40
BJP                  29
OTHERS           12

My average of exit polls has it at

                        BJP      JMM-INC-RJD    AJSU    JVM   OTH
VDP                  35                37              3          1       5
Cvoter-ABP        32                35              5          3       6
Kashish             28                44              3          3       3
TimesNow          28               44              0          6       3
Spick                 27               42              4          4       4
Axis-MyIndia      27               44              4          3       3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        30                41             3          3       4

Which gives JMM-INC-RJD a bare majority with OTH most likely having a couple of CPI(ML) MLA which would only lean JMM-INC-RJD and not BJP.  Also BJP rebel Saryu Roy might win his seat but he can only back BJP if Raghubar Das is out.  So at this stage it seems Raghubar Das is mostly likely out even if somehow BJP returns to power.

[jaichind]

Republic Jan Ki Baat Exit Polls for Jharkhand
                      
                        Seats        Vote Share
JMM-INC-RJD     42                40%
BJP                    26               33%
AJSU                   4                 9%
JVM                    3                  7%
OTHER                6                11%





This exit poll has 3 Independents winning which means it is making a shock projection that BJP CM Raghubar Das will lose Jamshedpur East to BJP rebel Saryu Rai.

[jaichind]

Updated average of exit polls has it at

                        BJP      JMM-INC-RJD    AJSU    JVM   OTH
VDP                  35                37              3          1       5
Cvoter-ABP        32                35              5          3       6
Kashish             28                44              3          3       3
TimesNow          28               44              0          6       3
Republic            26                42              4          3       6
Spick                 27               42              4          4       4
Axis-MyIndia      27               44              4          3       3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        29                41            3.5       3.5       4

[jaichind]

My exit poll to projection algorithm

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

Average of exit polls has it at

                        BJP      JMM-INC-RJD    AJSU    JVM   OTH
VDP                  35                37              3          1       5
Cvoter-ABP        32                35              5          3       6
Kashish             28                44              3          3       3
TimesNow          28               44              0          6       3
Republic            26                42              4          3       6
Spick                 27               42              4          4       4
Axis-MyIndia      27               44              4          3       3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        29                41            3.5       3.5      4


There was only one pre-election poll done by Cvoter-ABP

                        BJP     JMM-INC-RJD    AJSU    JVM   OTH
Pre-election        33           31                6          6       5
Exit poll             32           35                5          3        6

Which implies a slight shift toward JMM-INC-RJD mostly at the expense of AJSU JVM and OTH.  Based on that I will take the average of the exit polls and shift seats from BJP (due to defeat of incumbent) and AJSU JVM to take the trend into account.

                        BJP      JMM-INC-RJD    AJSU    JVM   OTH
Average             29                41          3.5        3.5       4
BJP shift            -3                 +3                                        (defeat of incumbent party)
Momentum                            +1         -0.5      -0.5      
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection          26                45            3          3         4

Which means JMM most likely will overtake BJP as largest party.  OTH 4 most likely are (1 NCP, 1 CPI(ML) plus (two of MCO IND or JHP))

[xelas81]

If BJP loses Jharkhand, won't the popular narrative be that CAB protests hurt BJP and Jharkhand results are backlash against CAB even if evidence actually points that BJP did better after the bill was passed?

[jaichind]

If BJP loses Jharkhand, won't the popular narrative be that CAB protests hurt BJP and Jharkhand results are backlash against CAB even if evidence actually points that BJP did better after the bill was passed?

That would be the opposition narrative and it would not be true.  If BJP loses Jharkhand and that now seems likely it would because the the slowing down of the informal and agriculture sectors hit the state hard plus alienating Tribals.  if the Jharkhand assembly election were to be fought on the CAA with Modi as the face of CAA then the BJP would win.  The opposition would make a grave mistake if they misread this defeat of the BJP as an mandate against the CAA.

The BJP, to be fair, have some reasons to worry in the latest anti-CAA protests.  That is the rise of Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan who leads up the Brim army becoming the focus of the protests in UP.  This trend could augment a possible future Dalit-Muslim political fusion could be unstoppable in UP.  The BJP surge in 2014-2019 was mostly of the consolidation of the OBC vote as well as a swing of Dalits toward the BJP.  The rise of Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan as the face of Dalits in UP could endanger the second leg of the BJP surge in UP.

[jaichind]

Counting starts.  Now with more than just more than postal votes we have

                          Leads     Diff vs 2014
JMM-INC-RJD         40           +15
BJP                       31             -6
AJSU                      3             -2
JVM                        3             -5
OTHER                    4             -2 (1 CPI(ML), 1 MCO, 1 BJP rebel, 1 BSP)

The 1 BSP lead is most likely postal vote unlikely to hold

Vote share from ECI which is a lagging indicator are

JMM-INC-RJD          35.5%
BJP                        33.7%
AJSU                       7.4%
JVM                         5.4%
BSP                         1.5%

Which does imply a narrow JMM-INC-RJD victory in the end