Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1572768342729007110?s=20&t=Je__FmS...

[Splash]

On the one hand, even partial mobilization is enough to raise the stakes to the point where Putin's regime could plausibly be threatened. If the Ukrainians continue to make gains then the backlash could be serious, though up to this point Putin has demonstrated far more fear of some sort of ultranationalist coup for backing down than of any kind of anti-war uprising.

On the other, I think a lot of people are underestimating the potential difference it could provide in the war. For one thing, most of those called up are unlikely to be just thrown into combat as cannon fodder but to fill either logistical or specialist roles that were previously lacking. In theory, a Russian BTG is supposed to have two such conscripts for each fighting professional soldier but up to this point they've had to pull troops and leave equipment aside to supplement the lack of logistical support. If Russian supply issues are global then partial mobilization won't help but if they're local then it will significantly strengthen their ability to keep heavy pressured forces armed and loaded despite Ukrainian pressure. They also indirectly increase the number of experienced fighters on the Russian side by freeing up those who were partially or fully relegated to logistical work.

A lack of specialists also means that the Russians haven't necessarily been able to fully utilize all of their equipment. The clause against refuseniks in particular could improve their capacity in the use of jets, artillery and tanks that were previously lying idle at garrison bases as well as their capacity to repair and refit damaged equipment.

Finally, partial mobilization basically eliminates the significant manpower advantage the Ukrainians have had up to this point. Arguably the biggest reason they were able to make such significant gains in Izyum is because Russian forces were stretched too thin to simultaneously hold Kherson and Izyum while attacking Bakhmut head on. The forces there were composed of geriatric DPR conscripts with DP-28s backed up by riot cops with rifles. Without a 2-1 advantage in troops the Ukrainians will have to punch through prepared Russian forces, a much tougher proposition judging by their progress in Kherson.

Zelensky has, optimistically, a month to pull off another significant victory before the weather makes further advances impossible. By the time winter has frozen the ground to the point where tanks are useable he'll have to contend with a Russian force of equal or greater size compared to his own and he'll have a difficult time making further gains short of Russia literally running out of ammo or a WW1 style collapse in morale. Even without the threat of nuclear weapons this could easily become a long, bloody, grinding war.

That's all fair and well in theory but whether Russia can put something akin to what you're saying into practice is another question. If the media's characterization of the mobilization order is correct, those being called up are only being trained for around two weeks (or less, see below) before being deployed. I am skeptical of how much 'specialization' and logistical know-how Russia can import into these sad souls within such a short period of time. It's one thing if the task is moving artillery shells from point A to point B. It's quite another to predict where resources are most urgently needed and prevent shortages of materials before they occur. So far, Russia has shown a stunning lack of logistical acumen in this war and I am hesitant to believe that throwing more bodies at that particular problem will help much.

Yes, those being rounded up are all supposed to have prior military experience but will that experience be matched with Russia's current needs? I have some doubts.

https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1572664720901152773

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1572688378604421120?s=20&t=6x86qC...

Watch as they frag their commanding officers and surrender immediately once deployed.

Interesting you mentioned this... was just watching this video from US Vietnam Era Vet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1Z3Y7AYiNY

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/UKR_Report/status/1572636848458964992

It appears our worst resident troll has officially taking the mask off being a rusbot

omg, stop being a baby. At least change your diapers once in a while, man.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-releases-10-foreigners-captured-ukraine-after-saudi-mediation-riyadh-2022-09-21/

"Russia, Ukraine announce major surprise prisoner swap"

It seems it is 215 for 55

Rybar says that Russia got back in addition to Medvechuk.


It seems Ukraine got back from foreign fighters plus some from the Azov battalion plus some other regular soliders.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

Eww. Just to be clear, while I stand with the Ukrainians, the disgusting azov soldiers are NOT hero’s in the slightest. They should’ve been left to die in captivity imo.

Not every Azov member is a Nazi, although some undoubtedly are. It is a specific problem with this regiment, although the overall situation had also improved in recent years. The situation is complex and it is probably difficult to separate the "bad" apples from the good ones.

The leaders of Azov are literally ALL members of a far-right ‘third position’ ie fascist party. Likewise, Azov itself was founded out of the ‘ultra’ football hooliganism movement which /IS/ heavily influenced by far-right and fascists ideologies as well. Maybe there are members who claim otherwise but the history and ethos of Azovstal is crystal clear... And I have zero sympathy for any members of a fascist organization. Let them rot.

Oh good grief. Yes, the Azov Battalion (which is not the same as Azovstal - that's just the name of the factory) was founded as a far-right paramilitary, but the whole point of integrating it into the Ukrainian military was precisely to neuter its ideological component, and from all the reports I've seen actually coming from inside Ukraine (not from Russian sources who paint everyone and everything Ukrainian as Nazis, or from Western sources who love to feel smarter and more tolerant than everyone else) show that this has been largely successful. Likely today's Azov Regiment soldiers are still more likely to hold ethnonationalist views than the average Ukrainian soldier, sure, but claiming "they're all nazis" is a huge oversimplification, and saying they deserve to be indefinitely detained by a country known for its war crimes and inhumane treatment of POWs is frankly just sick behavior. This essentialist, reductionist attitude is poisoning the brains of leftists online and we need to f**king stop. Let's leave the politics of cruelty to the right, please.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1572688378604421120?s=20&t=6x86qC...

Watch as they frag their commanding officers and surrender immediately once deployed.

How dare you suggest such want and violence against ordinary innocent people! (Cassius, probably).

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1572688378604421120?s=20&t=6x86qC...

Watch as they frag their commanding officers and surrender immediately once deployed.

Even better, they could convince their fellow soldiers to do the same. Its often forgotten that Russia dropped out of WW1 in 1917 because its troops basically refused to fight en masse.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

Eww. Just to be clear, while I stand with the Ukrainians, the disgusting azov soldiers are NOT hero’s in the slightest. They should’ve been left to die in captivity imo.

Not every Azov member is a Nazi, although some undoubtedly are. It is a specific problem with this regiment, although the overall situation had also improved in recent years. The situation is complex and it is probably difficult to separate the "bad" apples from the good ones.

Seem to recall there was a bit of a Neo-Nazi purge that happened some years back, and I say that as an individual who broadly supports the Antifa movement and participated in street demos some years back against the KKK as well as against reconstituted Neo-Nazi political formations in East Berlin in the 1990s.

One might well make a strong argument that the current Azov Battalion membership has a relatively small % of literal White Supremacists and Neo-Nazis.

Ukrainian Nationalists Azov Battalion membership currently does not equate with literal Neo-Nazis, Anti-Semites, and White Supremacist political formations, but still let's put it this way, they definitely need to be continuously monitored to prevent the emergence or propagation of hateful doctrines, especially any "internationalists" who choose to enlist to fight against the Russians.

This is essentially correct. And it doesn't mean that one denies that the Azov Regiment has still, on some level, problems with far-right extremism. "They're all Nazis and deserve a horrible fate" just doesn't depict reality very well.

And there's another aspect to keep in mind: The "Azovstal defenders" didn't merely consist of the Azov Regiment. There were also the soldiers of the 36th Marine Brigade - who doesn't share a similar history with neo-Nazism - who have also been released from Russian captivity now.

[Storr]

These dudes look fairly old, at least 35+.

https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1572863899934019585?s=20&t=pBTTc20sZ5k...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

These dudes look fairly old, at least 35+.

https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1572863899934019585?s=20&t=pBTTc20sZ5k...

It would make sense if they served recently or are specialists, but cases like these (along with the conscription of people arrested in anti-mobilisation protests) suggest this isn’t being organised as well as it could:

https://www.twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1572866010713133057

The Russian army can only support so many people at the front at one time. Even if the “1 million men” rumour is the true target, gradually scaling up would seem the most sensible way to reach it - so that training, equipment, logistics etc. could be prioritised for the most willing and able new recruits.

This approach seems too ad hoc. It will probably still be beneficial, but squander some of the advantages mobilisation offers.

[Storr]

The fact this is quite believable says a lot about the situation the Kremlin finds itself in:

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1572909476994220033?s=20&t=pBTTc20s...

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/UKR_Report/status/1572636848458964992

It appears our worst resident troll has officially taking the mask off being a rusbot

omg, stop being a baby. At least change your diapers once in a while, man.

Silence, Putinbot!

[Person Man]

This either ends up making the war this huge meat grinder or if it is the edge that Russia needed, will set the stage for Russia's eventual invasion of the Baltics, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia...or at least China's invasion of Taiwan. Again, the longer this goes on, the more likely the West will eventually have its back to the wall.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Peskov's son apparently expects to be treated more equal than others.


https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1572624326548922375?ref_src=twsrc...


https://mobile.twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1572624717797883904

[Torie]

If Putin is really going for broke (a million called up sounds like total war to me), Biden has some tough decisions to make now. I would think Ukraine needs itself to kind of go for broke and get back as much possible, and maul what is left of the Russian army in place, before the winter sets in. And that means more and fancier weapons.

Just awful news really. Putin is unwilling to lose - period - it seems. Yet, it is unacceptable for Ukraine to lose. Something has to give, and sooner rather than later I suspect.

Perhaps the whole call up is largely fake news for the media. That is the best scenario.

And all of this is bad news for the world economy to boot. First covid, and now Putin. What's next?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Mobilization is just putting lipstick on a pig at this point. Sending waves of poorly trained and demoralized troops into the meat grinder will do little to shift the war effort at this point and runs the risk of political fallouts at home.

[DINGO Joe]

Z-channel buzz today is that Ukraine has broken thru the line NW of Lyman and are actually bypassing Lyman--the "old"  Kharkiv tactic.

[Storr]

Dagestan is a muslim majority region neighboring Chechnya and Azerbaijan with an only 3.6% ethnic Russian population. It makes sense there would be more resistance to mobilization there than elsewhere. The recruiting officer looks to be an ethnic Russian. I doubt locals enjoy having some Karenesque Russian lady lecture to them about fighting for the motherland.

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1572924327405707264?s=20&t=IohA_Udx...

https://twitter.com/John19822141/status/1572945660823109633?s=20&t=M8zDHmtMK...

https://twitter.com/John19822141/status/1572946603186728960?s=20&t=M8zDHmtMK...

https://twitter.com/John19822141/status/1572948962713149444?s=20&t=M8zDHmtMK...

[Torie]

So, Putin explicitly threatened nuclear war if Ukraine keeps fighting for the territory that Putin is going to annex next week. So the question is, will China and India stop buying Russian oil. They already told Putin that the war is bad for business, and they don't like it. That is the big imponderable. I can't imagine the US and UK submitting to nuclear blackmail. On this one, Germany and France don't matter. Sorry guys.

And this business about the call up being limited to reservists with military experience is a flat-assed lie per the NYT. School buses are being commandered, and teachers writing up draft papers rather than teaching the kids. It's like a panic. Just crazy stuff.

"Russian officials said the call-up would be limited to people with combat experience. But Yanina Nimayeva, a journalist from the Buryatia region of Siberia, wrote on Thursday that her husband — a father of five and an employee in the emergency department in the regional capital — had been called up despite never having served in the military. She said he had received a summons to an urgent meeting at 4 a.m. in which it was announced that a train had been organized to bring reservists to the city of Chita."

“My husband is 38 years old, he is not in the reserve, he did not serve,” Ms. Nimayeva said in a video addressed to the regional leader, Aleksei S. Tsydenov of Mr. Putin’s United Russia party."


A 38 year old man with five kids with no military experience. Yikes.

[Storr]

Dagestan is a muslim majority region neighboring Chechnya and Azerbaijan with an only 3.6% ethnic Russian population. It makes sense there would be more resistance to mobilization there than elsewhere. The recruiting officer looks to be an ethnic Russian. I doubt locals enjoy having some Karenesque Russian lady lecture to them about fighting for the motherland.

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1572924327405707264?s=20&t=IohA_Udx...

[tweets snip of video dialogue translation]

Interesting if true:

"Mobilization in the village of Babayurt, Dagestan: villagers, protesting against the mobilization, blocked the federal highway.

It was the second day of mobilization."

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1572956593657974785?s=20&t=es8ADhK6z...

[Virginiá]

An additional one million men in the army is going to have next to nothing for an officer class, and the ones they will have will be green and practically worthless. This is on top of what is essentially a brand new army with at best, bare minimum training, and in some cases, no training whatsoever. Also this doesn't really address the supply chain issue. Up to a few months ago, they were using CPU chips from washing machines and other appliances in new weapons, not to mention all the other parts they've been sourcing from the west. Some takedowns of weapons by Ukrainians showed drones and vehicles with hundreds of western parts. I don't doubt their ability to adjust over time, and even in the short term (using stockpiled or repurposed parts and parallel import schemes), but to mass produce weapons, vehicles and even basic field kit for a drastically enlarged army of this scale?

I honestly don't think mobilization will be totally useless for Russia - at least in theory - it could help them fill in many weak spots on the front line, in addition to logistical support and freeing up better trained soldiers for fighting, but the production side of this mobilization doesn't quite add up, at least so long as Russia's remaining major allies like China are unwilling to give them the support they need.

[Sir Mohamed]

Putin's nuclear threats are a bluff and nobody should be falling for it. It explicitly mentioned that he's "not bluffing". When you're saying this out loud, you certainly are. Aside from other consequences, when a tactical nuclear strike would be admission that his army losing. And losing rapidly.

[Storr]

Surprise: Putin lied.

https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1572873172541927428?s=20&t=PJR9hprlzE...

https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1572873178879500288?s=20&t=PJR9hprlzE...

https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1572873188509614081?s=20&t=PJR9hprlzE...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1572965362198609926