The statewide number is believable, but I really doubt ME-02 will only vote 6 points right of the state. That would be less than in 2012. Biden probably needs to win ME by at least 13-15% to have a chance in ME-02 (not like he needs it, though.)
ME-02 voted 6.7 points more R than ME in 2012 (Obama +9 vs Obama +15). In 2008, it was 6.1 (Obama+11 vs Obama +17).
I know 2020 isnt 2012 or 2008, but Hillary was also particularly ill-matched for ME-02.
Obama was well suited for ME-02 throughout. Additionally, things like Iraq (New England time-honored dove streak) as well as pocketbook issues made 2008 bad for Rs. In 2012 Mr. 47% was a bad fit for ME-02. The well-suited thing flipped completely in 2016 and gave Rs a strong win. Now we have a situation where both candidates can be seen as suiting ME-02.
