The absentee/early vote thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting in the Maine data that both R and D are up in CD1 but down in CD2, which pretty much cancel out in the statewide numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

So a month ahead of schedule to hit same # of requested absentees? Interesting.

Midterm vs Presidential year is not a great comparison.  Is there any data from 2012?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/784107933411991555
They have been broadcasting this for weeks. Ground game.

I know that but for that number to be true it must mean that virtually zero Hispanics voted early in 2012.

No.  Suppose 100 voted early in 2012.  If 199 voted early in 2016, that would be an increase of 99.  Divide this by the original number (100) and it's a 99% increase.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dave Wasserman (https://twitter.com/Redistrict) tweets:

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and

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Also:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Other than the fact that almost everyone has said Florida is essentially won for Clinton.

And, I'll waste my breath to say that, if she wins FL, it requires the superhuman bending of the mind to see how she loses the GE.

Clinton wins this scenario 270-268, for God's sake:

I hereby nominate this map for Strangest Semi-Plausible Clinton Win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This seems to reinforce the idea that many people who choose Johnson in a poll do so simply because they don't like either Clinton or Trump, and Johnson is an offered alternative.  But they have no strong attachment to Johnson, so they're more likely to stay home than to turn out and vote for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

you are technically correct, even while....are there really states which are better for republicans if the turnout is high?

Then again most of the Trumpers don't approve of ANY early voting. I keep seeing how voting should only be allowed one day and if you can't make it that's your own problem. So I'm sure a lot of them won't vote until election day.

Funny enough the biggest Trump supporter I know isn't going to vote. Hoping there's a lot of them that are like that.

The biggest Trump supporter I know has said the same thing, although I'm not sure I believe him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On this note, wouldn't we expect that if Trump was activating massive numbers of low propensity white voters that the Midwest would be exactly where turnout would be surging, since it has the most of them?

you are technically correct, even while....are there really states which are better for republicans if the turnout is high?

Then again most of the Trumpers don't approve of ANY early voting. I keep seeing how voting should only be allowed one day and if you can't make it that's your own problem. So I'm sure a lot of them won't vote until election day.

Funny enough the biggest Trump supporter I know isn't going to vote. Hoping there's a lot of them that are like that.

The biggest Trump supporter I know has said the same thing, although I'm not sure I believe him.

What are these people's reasons?

In my case, it's because he thinks Clinton has the election in the bag (nationally; not necessarily in Georgia) and there are zero competitive downballot races.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I caved and went to early vote with some coworkers today and in my Volusia county early voting precinct I was number 15,380, lots of people around the Hillary stand not many for the Trump stand. There was also a Johnson Stand too.

You have candidate stands in/near the polling place?  That's interesting.  Georgia is different; it prohibits any kind of campaigning or politicking, even signs, within 150 feet of the polling place.

[GeorgiaModerate]

yeah.....it is.

which brings me to the question.....does that mean you americans are able to vote right now but not between next friday and tuesday?

The rules vary from state to state; some states have no early voting at all, but what you said is probably true in most that do.  For more detail, https://ballotpedia.org/Early_voting is a good starting point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

wth believe that skewed poll ?

get this trhough your head.    

Black voter turnouts 26.6% decreased compare with 2012.

You asked for facts.  They gave you facts.  So you dismiss the facts as skewed.

Grow up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Voted for Clinton in GA today!

Which county? Long line?

Gwinnett County

40 minute line...read a magazine in nice weather during that time!

Actually that's a vast improvement. Last week there were 3-4 hour lines there.

They only had one early voting location to start with.  They have since opened seven additional locations (I believe they opened today, although I'm not certain of this.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):




https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

Texas will be a battleground after all

Sending out the bat-signal for NOVA Green on this. It looks like about 2/3 of the total voter registration spike in TX was Hispanic and most of the increased turnout in all these large TX counties is Hispanic

Wouldn't it be hysterical if the final map was something like this?  I know it's not realistic (if TX goes D, then AZ and FL almost certainly do too):  282-256 D

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is telling people not to vote by mail in Colorado:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/donald-trump-write-in-ballots/index.html

From that story:

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Isn't the idea to sow confusion on the other side?

[GeorgiaModerate]

In Georgia's four most populous counties, as of this morning:

Fulton: 22% of RV have already voted
DeKalb: 19%
Cobb: 14%
Gwinnett: 13%

Source: http://www.ajc.com/news/local/dekalb-county-leader-early-voting/8HFkR2iBp6L2uGDLgQkd2M/

In raw terms this would appear to be positive for the Democrats, but I have no idea how it compares to a similar point in 2012.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona. 

You are mixing apples and oranges.  Polls and early voting data are entirely different things.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, NE-02 is a vastly underrated D pickup opportunity. It tends to just slip under most people's radar, but it might be more likely to flip than NC at this point.

It's very worth mentioning, by the way, that if she carries NE-02, ME-02, and NV, she doesn't need WI.

If Clinton holds NH

Yes, but I guess I'm not really considering that a swing state right now.

If Clinton carries ME-02, she's very likely to also carry NH.