2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[GALeftist]

Here's a map I made. I think it's pretty fair from a partisan perspective, but I don't know much about Pennsylvania, so it's definitely possible I've committed some cardinal sin here.

[GALeftist]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

I don't think this is possible. Tom Wolf will probably veto it and punt it to the PASC.

[GALeftist]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

I don't think this is possible. Tom Wolf will probably veto it and punt it to the PASC.

Wolf will 100% veto, so if it gets through the Commonwealth Court before the filing deadline in early March, then yeah, we should end up with a fair map, because the PASC is relatively well versed in mapping at this point.

Well my point is that if it's vetoed it doesn't become law, so I don't see how elections could ever be held under this map, unless I'm ignorant of some quirk of Pennsylvania law.

[GALeftist]

That 17th actually made me burst out laughing. Incredible stuff. Obviously doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of passing, though, I'm pretty sure Republicans need 23 Democrats in the House to override a veto and there are only 24 total in Philly. Even if they cleared that bar, it would be struck down by the Supreme Court in a heartbeat. Of course, it will not clear that bar. It will probably receive zero Democratic votes in the House and, at best, one in the Senate from Mr. Sharif Street.

[GALeftist]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-draft-pa-congressional-map-could-boost-the-philly-democrat-helping-draw-it-e2-80-94-but-hurt-his-party/ar-AAREIPv?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Street criticized those in the party who want to split Pittsburgh to draw two safe Democratic seats. Street said that would lower the chances that a progressive like state Rep. Summer Lee — the first Black woman elected to the legislature from Western Pennsylvania who is now running for Congress — could win a congressional seat.

“Black women, we say, are the backbone of the Democratic Party,” Street said. But some Democrats, he said, “want me to make changes to a district in a way to disempower the most successful Black female politician in the history of Western Pennsylvania. They want me to disempower her.”

Don't understand this point. No one thinks Pittsburgh is being split, and you don't even need to do that to draw a second Biden Seat. Summer Lee would also be more than capable of winning a safe or likely D Allegheny seat as long as it includes Braddock. Really, you should just give PA-17 Beaver and as much of Butler as it needs and then the debate should be on whether the 17th gets more of western Allegheny for a competitive R district or eastern Allegheny for a true tossup. People are mad at Street's 17th because A. it's hideous and B. its hideousness makes it more R than either of the saner alternatives.

[GALeftist]

And if the other maps passed so far from both party say anything, its that the state parties don't give a hoot on what the national party wants.

I wouldn't go that far. I mean, Nevada Democrats cracked Hispanics three ways to get three Lean D seats, to the detriment of one of their incumbents and the prospect of a Hispanic-influence seat. North Carolina, Oregon and Illinois all went pretty hard and New Mexico and Tennessee look like they will as well, which again can't really be explained by incumbent protection like Maryland, Ohio, Texas, or Florida. Partisan advantage is not the be all end all – we can see that in Maryland and Florida especially – but it's definitely playing a larger role than it did in 2010, and I'd be pretty surprised if the PA Democrats allow an own goal like this.

[GALeftist]

Is Wolf the obstacle to a compromise map or is it the PA legislature?

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1482471181248868352

Wolf releases proposal which splits Pittsburgh.

[GALeftist]

I'm no fan of Fitzpatrick but I really don't like those Bucks splits. Makes a lot more sense to just wait him out and/or hope he gets primaried imo

[GALeftist]

Senate Map

Seems like 25-25 in 2020?

[GALeftist]

lel

[GALeftist]

I think Cartwright could possibly still win in a squeaker. This PA-08 is bluer than the last one. I would have preferred giving Monroe to PA-07 long term but you get what you get