VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Anna Komnene]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

It's not just redistricting. A democratic governor is pretty much the only thing standing in the way of a full bore social conservative agenda in Virginia. Just take a look at some of the stuff McAuliffe vetoed in the past 4 years. That's what you can expect from a Gillespie governorship.

[Anna Komnene]

Can someone please explain to me why a state that voted for Hillary by 6 points has the magnifying class of America on it?

Aside from wanting to see your side win, this is (probably) not at all useful to extrapolate onto 2018 trends

It's election day and the NJ race isn't close, so VA is the biggest thing to talk about. That and a lot of political correspondents work in DC for obvious reasons, so VA politics stand out to them.

If you're talking about the Atlas forum... well because it's a politics forum?

[Anna Komnene]

What is the pundit prediction for the 13th HoD district?

DDHQ has it listed as lean D. Danica Roem has raised a lot of money and gotten help from lots of lgbt groups, but Marshall had a worryingly large cash advantage at the end of October because Roem's campaign basically burned through all of it's cash. The sheer contrast between the two candidates (ie: trans candidate vs trans-hating socon) makes me a little wary of predictions based on regular metrics... but I'm definitely hopeful.

[Anna Komnene]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

again, how did tanner LOSE votes compared to VPAP

There could have been a counting error that they fixed in the canvas. It happens sometimes. But I think right now no one really knows for sure other than the actual election officials.