VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Skill and Chance]

Worth remembering tomorrow night:

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And in 2014, Gillespie lost his lead when 92% of the precincts were reporting.

So McAuliffe 2013 took the lead with 76% reporting, Clinton 2016 took the lead with 83% reporting (with a 5.4% final margin!), Warner 2014 took the lead at 92% reporting, and Herring 2013 took the lead in a recount.

Anyone know when Obama 2012 (3.9% final margin) took the lead?  Probably earlier than Clinton and McAuliffe because less purely dependent on NOVA?

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia HoD is now at D+14, 2 more flips to take control and Ds lead in 2 uncalled seats still. This was believed to be impossible initially.

The idea that Democrats could win the HoD, even if by 50-50 [size=7pt](giving them a slim advantage),[/size] was insane before today. Massive swings and this many losing incumbents is extremely rare.

The last time Virginia saw a swing in seats this big was 1895.

I don't think Fairfax the Dem LG can tiebreak in the lower chamber?  Either way, it's an amazing swing, and at least 3 of the R-leading seats right now will be going to a recount, but it's likely that only 1 D-leading seat will have a recount.

[Skill and Chance]

The nice part is that even going into 2019, there should still be enough competitive districts for Democrats to make some gains. And if they can convince a Republican senator to go turncoat, they can completely redraw the HoD maps before 2019 - assuming the HoD is at least 50-50 in the end.

The Richmond suburbs guy is the best chance for a party-switch in the Senate.

[Skill and Chance]

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

Northam is now assured of being able to block the state legislative lines, but if the GOP controls one chamber of the legislature, they can punt the Congressional lines to after the 2021 elections.  If Democrats pick up the State Senate in 2019 (which will be fanatically easier than what they accomplished in the HoD tonight), it is not up again until 2023, so they can still block a Republican map in 2022 even if there is a GOP governor and GOP HoD.  So the possible outcomes are:

1. Dems hold/flip HoD pending recounts and flip State Senate in 2019, Dem trifecta draws all maps in 2021.
 
2.  GOP holds/flips back HoD in 2019, GOP sweep statewide in 2021: court map for state legislature, GOP gerrymander of congress, potential GOP gerrymander of legislature as well after 2021 win, although the GOP LG blocked this last decade.  

3. Dems flip state senate outright with at least 21 seats in 2019, but GOP holds/flips back HoD, ensures court maps for both state legislature and congress.

4. Dems flip one state senate seat for a 20-20 tie, Republicans hold/flip back HoD, Dem LG and GOP GOV wins in 2021: ensures court maps for both state legislature and congress.

5. Dems flip one state senate seat for a 20-20 tie, Republicans hold/flip back HoD, GOP LG and GOV win in 2021: court map for state legislature, GOP gerrymander of congress

6. Dems flip state senate at least 20-20 in 2019, GOP holds/flips back HoD, but Dems sweep statewide in 2021: court map of state legislature, Dem gerrymander for congress

[Skill and Chance]

Fairfax lost VA Beach.  Other than that, the county maps for the 3 statewide Dems were exactly the same, which is wild!

[Skill and Chance]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

So basically what the Clinton campaign was hoping for (counting on?) in 2016.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Yeah, the 2016 swings were definitely not a "one-time thing".

Totally.  I think GA-GOV will flip narrowly and AZ-SEN (Flake->Open) will be a fairly easy Dem pickup now.  Even Cruz could absolutely get a mid single digit scare.

[Skill and Chance]

Totally.  I think GA-GOV will flip narrowly and AZ-SEN (Flake->Open) will be a fairly easy Dem pickup now.  Even Cruz could absolutely get a mid single digit scare.

Thoughts on WV-SEN and MD-GOV? I think WV is a Tossup, but Hogan may be done for.

They are both in something of a different league in terms of having separate brands from their national parties.  If I had to call it, I would now say both lose by 1-5%.  I do think Baker holds on in MA, though.

The senate/house split could get very weird.  It's somewhat possible that all of the Romney Dems in the Senate lose while they gain in the high 30's/low 40's and flip the House.  We did just see a couple of VA HoD Dems outrun Northam/Clinton substantially, though, so it's not that every Dem in the Midwest is done by any means.      

[Skill and Chance]

tell that boy Scott Taylor to WATCH HIS BACK.

7 is interesting.  When it was drawn in 2012, it was intended to be the most Safe R in the state after the SWVA seat. 

[Skill and Chance]

Absolutely fantastic result for the Democrats, who have in a single night resolved several issues:

• Can you run moderates like Northam and still benefit from the D anti-Trump wave? Yes, liberals are energized and not exclusionary (at least in Virginia).
• Do Democrats have a chance of winning back the House? Yes, because while Republicans can pull out edges in single-shot special elections, the broad attention of a statewide vote (which all 2018 is)
   brings out the Resistance.
• Can otherwise establishment Republicans go law-and-order to boost white turnout? Not really, SWVA doesn't trust them, destroys sympathy in NoVA, and boosts nonwhite turnout.
• Are the polls accurate? Yes, and sometimes underestimate the Democrat (see 538's First Rule of Polling Error)
• Can initiatives overcome existing Republican resistance? Sometimes (Maine) but not when the position is highly opposed by existing outside interests (Ohio).
• In 2009 Republicans turn the Virginia House from a 55-43 Republican split to a 61-39 R split. The Dems turned 34-66 to 50-50 this year.
• Could 2018 be brutal for Paul Ryan? Yes.

I'm not sure of the "need to swing rural areas to win the legislature" - didn't the Ds just flip this legislature? Gerrymandering creates lots of seats which are hard to reach but can be hit (you concentrate all the D votes in one area to create margins, not blowouts, for R districts). Doesn't that process combined with a D wave create a lot of uneasy Republicans?

VA HoD could still be 51/49 either way due to recounts.  It's more likely for Dems to get the 51st seat because they trail by only 12 votes in one of their current losses.  The narrowest Dem win is 70ish votes, but there is also another R who is only up 85ish.  Provisionals and ambiguously marked paper ballots have historically been heavily D in VA.  In 2013, Herring went from down ~1000 statewide on election night to up ~150 after provisionals and recanvass to up ~900 after the recount was completed and ambiguously marked ballots were hand-counted.

[Skill and Chance]

This is a truly impressive VA Dem result all around.  I was expecting another McAuliffe or Warner 2014 style squeaker for Northam.  This (and GA-06 even though Ossoff lost) is a preliminary indication that the Dem shift in Romney-Clinton areas is looking permanent.  That could have important implications for CA, AZ, GA, NC and parts of TX next year if it holds.  On the other hand, we didn't get a lot of data last night from Obama-Trump areas.  An incumbent Republican judge winning statewide PA isn't necessarily a surprise, but it doesn't line up with the rest of what Dems accomplished last night.  VA was all about extending the margin in Romney-Clinton areas, not winning back the handful of Obama-Trump areas.  But Democrats have gotten impressive results in Obama-Trump district special elections in many parts of the country.  VA-GOV historically has a decent correlation with the next midterm's results (because it is usually won by the out-party), but it's by no means a sure thing as 2013 showed us.  NJ-GOV was basically in line with the Clinton-Trump margin, but I think NJ Dems flipped several legislative districts?

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, it was 9 points? I was actually just looking for the HoD PV info.

Anyway, you're probably right, but I have a hard time actually advocating for a gerrymander because I fundamentally disagree with it. I was just thinking that under a neutral map, Democrats could solidify their position through incumbency and an electorate that is naturally trending Democratic as it is.

Plus, if Democrats were to pass massive election reforms, such as same-day registration, early voting, moving election to normal years, it could make it even more Dem-friendly. Although I think these are things they should do anyway, just on principle.

Changing the statewide races to presidential years would require a constitutional amendment, but a party that controls both chambers of the legislature can refer one to the ballot.  I'm not 100% sure they would want to do that for Governor/LG/AG, but Democrats would probably love to have all the state legislative elections in presidential years.

[Skill and Chance]

He appears to have won 58 districts.

Oh wow. This means that Democrats still have plenty of room to grow in the next election. There could be a clear majority by 2019.

Yes. In fact, it would be fair to say Democrats are favored to take back both the state Senate and HoD in 2019 if the election is even half as good as it was this week. They don't have over a dozen incumbents to take out next time around, and because those were almost all Clinton districts, they will be easier to keep. In many ways this was a massive correction on an over-extended GOP that got greedy in the last round  of redistricting.

As it stands now, there are a few Clinton districts and like a half dozen marginal Trump districts Democrats could make serious plays for. As soon as they take complete control, the HoD gerrymander comes down and there will probably be a slew of pro-voter reforms passed.

It would be nice if someone (DDHQ, perhaps?) could come up with a map showing partisan control district-by-district in the Virginia Senate, like we saw with the House of Delegates in the run-up to this Tuesday. 

Here is a map of the current senate - note how Dems really drew the map in their favor in 2010:
https://www.vpap.org/elections/senate/

Here is a map showing Clinton's margin in said seats. Reps hold 3 Clinton districts (10, 12, 13,) and 1 marginal Trump district (7). Of course more could be competitive, but this is purely PVI based.
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2016-presidential-results-by-senate/


Also, the Dem in HD 27, the hardest seat to flip in a recount has conceded. This now puts the chamber at 49-48 D, with 3 seats heading to probable recounts.

It's highly likely the 394 vote margin for the Dem in HD-85 in VA Beach will hold.  Don't understand why her opponent hasn't conceded yet there.  From there, HD-94 with the 14 vote Republican lead will almost surely be where the action is in the recount and provisionals.  HD-28 with the 84 vote Republican lead is on the outer edge of what could flip in a recount, particularly if there are a lot of provisionals left to be counted.  I would expect the 115 vote lead post-recanvass in HD-40 to hold, so the likeliest outcome is 50D/50R with power sharing as there could be enough heavily Dem leaning provisionals to flip HD-94 before the recount even begins.  Outside chance of 51/49 either way.

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia is now a blue state. The Chesterfield results are devastating for the VAGOP.

I want Kaine to absolutely obliterate Corey Stewart next year.

It is remarkable that Northam improved on Clinton/Kaine throughout the Richmond metro even though Kaine was a former Mayor of Richmond and Northam is from Hampton Roads.  No one on the 2017 ticket was from Richmond.  Fairfax lives in Alexandria and Herring is from Loudoun County.  Clinton/Kaine did do slightly better there in a PVI sense, but Northam shifted VA Beach from R+5 to R+2 relative to the statewide result.*

*Chesterfield has consistently been more R in state elections than in federal ones, while VA Beach has consistently been more D in state elections than in federal ones.  Obama lost VA Beach in 2008, but Kaine actually carried it in 2005 with a lower statewide margin of victory. 

[Skill and Chance]

BTW hopefully Tom Perriello gets a soft landing into Warner's senate seat when he likely retires in 2020 or maybe VA-10 where he now lives.

VA-GOV 2021 will be very interesting.  Another Herring vs. Fairfax primary?  I don't think Herring will sit out another cycle in the AG post.

[Skill and Chance]

Warner isn't likely to retire in 2020. He's having too much fun with the Russia investigation.

Perriello should hope to get a cushy spot in the next Democratic administration and either wait for a more favorable Charlottesville district or hope Kaine retires in 2024.

The problem is Charlotesville is nowhere near big enough to control a CD and most of the territory that surrounds Charlottesville is now as lopsided R as Charlotesville/Albemarle is D.  The only way he gets a favorable CD there is if Democrats control redistricting and draw VA-07 up I-64 to connect the white liberal parts of Richmond and Henrico with Charlottesville.  And even then that might not stand up in court with the new SCOTUS cases on partisan gerrymandering.  I suppose he's young enough to keep working for progressive think tanks and wait around until 2031 when Democrats will almost surely control the state and Charlottesville could be significantly bigger.

Running for VA-10 next year is another option, since he lives in NOVA now, but that primary is already a clown car with Comstock likely being toast.

Another possibility is that a Dem legislature could put him on the VA Supreme Court in a few years.

[Skill and Chance]

https://wtop.com/virginia/2017/11/as-va-heads-recounts-dems-ask-hundreds-wrong-ballots-fredericksburg/

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So it turns out that since 2011, hundreds of votes in each election could have been incorrectly cast in the wrong district, and it hasn't been noticed until now because the races were never that close and thus no one ever really paid that much attention.

If this pans out, there could be enough votes to flip HD-28 back to the Democrat. Combined with Yancey's recount, this increases the odds of a 51D-49R majority, or at least a 50-50 chamber.

If this is verified, wouldn't the remedy for have to be a special election under the correct line, since the voters in these precincts cast their ballots choosing between 2 different candidates in a different district?

Of course, a low turnout special for control of the legislature (well, control for one side or the other vs. power sharing pending the HD-94 recount) is just about the worst case scenario for the GOP in the present environment.

[Skill and Chance]

If you had told me even 2 years ago that the VA House would agree to Medicaid expansion before the VA Senate did, I would have looked at you like you were insane.  That's how crazy the 2017 results were down ballot.