U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[cinyc]

I'm sure the residents of fast-growing exurban areas like New Lenox are going to love being represented by racist nutter Bobby Rush in IL-01.   They have little in common with the inner city Chicago ghetto that makes up about 55% of the district.  The city portion of IL-01 is 86% black.  The suburban and exurban parts of that district are 71% white.   The Will County exurban portion is only 2% black.  The district is about 53% black.

Given rates of exurban growth and black flight from Chicago, it might be possible that the district becomes majority suburban by the end of the decade.  That hasn't hurt Jesse Jackson Junior from getting reelected in IL-02, though - but the suburban areas in his district are more black than those in IL-01.

[cinyc]

What are the Bush 2004 numbers in the respective districts?

That's not as easy to calculate as you think.  Illinois' cities and counties are responsible for running elections and reporting results, and their 2004 election reporting is far from uniform.  Some very important, highly Gerrymandered counties - Will (6 CDs) and Madison (3 CDs) - don't make township-level results available on their websites, let alone the precinct-level results that would be necessary to get accurate 2004 numbers given the very high level of Gerrymandering.  Even the Atlas doesn't have that data.  Short of calling up or visiting the relevant county officials to get the precinct canvass books (assuming they exist), it is not possible to get anything but an estimate.

And that's before having to track down any change in precinct boundaries from 2004 to 2010.

[cinyc]

I'm sure the residents of fast-growing exurban areas like New Lenox are going to love being represented by racist nutter Bobby Rush in IL-01.   They have little in common with the inner city Chicago ghetto that makes up about 55% of the district.  The city portion of IL-01 is 86% black.  The suburban and exurban parts of that district are 71% white.   The Will County exurban portion is only 2% black.  The district is about 53% black.

Given rates of exurban growth and black flight from Chicago, it might be possible that the district becomes majority suburban by the end of the decade.  That hasn't hurt Jesse Jackson Junior from getting reelected in IL-02, though - but the suburban areas in his district are more black than those in IL-01.

The district may become majority suburban, but the Democratic primary vote in the district would not. Similarly, the district could be 40% black and still have a majority of Democratic primary voters be black.

Last I checked, Illinois' primaries are quasi-open.  Anyone can vote in them, but which primary you vote in goes on the record.  

If enough suburbanites understand that the only way to get rid of racist nutter Bobby Rush is in a Democratic primary, those who otherwise think of themselves as Republican or independent could theoretically vote against him in a Democratic primary if/when the IL-01 balance tips to the suburbs.  Likely?  Probably not - but one can dream of a former Black Panther getting kicked to the curb due to too-cute-by-half racial Gerrymandering gone wrong, can't they?

[cinyc]

 Well, since the GOP will have a presidential primary, and the Dems will not--and also because there are no statewide offices on the ballot in 2012, I don't see a whole lot of GOP primary voters crossing over and voting against Rush in the Dem primary.  If anything, Dems will cross over and vote in the GOP primary.
  I agree--even as an Illinoisan--with liberal tendancies--that Rush can be a total embarrassment.  However the way the district is drawn, there is more than enough of Chicago in there that I'd be suprised if he falls below 70% in a general election.

Ill_Ind

I wasn't talking about a general election or even 2012.  I think the first necessary condition for Rush to fall in a Democratic primary would be the suburban and exurban part of IL-01 becoming more populous than the Chicago part - and that's not going to happen until 2014 at the earliest, and, more likely, 2016, as the population of New Lenox and environs explodes while Chicago's black flight continues.  It is certainly possible that there will be no major Republican primary in 2014 or, even more likely, 2016 if a Republican wins the White House in 2012 - assuming Illinois Republicans can get their act together, back one gubernatorial candidate and/or not primary Kirk.

I'm sure I dig hard enough I can find posts by Cinyc expressing outrage at the perhaps millions of African American Democrats in the South stranded in 60-65% McCain districts represented by Republicans who don't give a damn if their record and words alienate every single one of them.

Unless he thinks the white voters of Crete, Illinois are more important and worthy of concern, but that can't be true.

You are confusing asking a question with outrage or concern.  There is nothing inherently outrageous about the Illinois map or packing IL-01 with white suburbanites who supposedly will never be able to elect their preferred candidate in a primary, let alone the general election.  It is what it is.  The legitimate question is whether mappers have cut things too close by packing the district with exurbanites instead of Chicagoans, who would be more likely to vote for a Chicago machine candidate like Rush.   The dictates of the Voting Rights Act notwithstanding, geography does matter.

[cinyc]

 Ill district 1 total population 712,813

Portion that was in the old (2000 iteration) 1st district  534,910

Portion that came from Former CD 11--(New Lenox and Frankfort--Will County--95,983

It's going to be alot later than 2014 or 2016 before the exurbs are going to swamp out the Chicago portion of Rush's district.  Believe me,neither  Bobby Rush nor any of the other African American congressmen would have signed off on that map if their future elections weren't guaranteed.

Ill_Ind

I said suburbs AND exurbs, not just exurbs.  Only 55% of the proposed IL-01 is inside the city limits of Chicago.  The rest is in suburban Cook County (31%) or exurban Will County (14%).   

Inner-city Chicago is losing population due to black flight.  The portion of Will County near New Lenox will likely be one of the fastest growing areas of Will County if not the state once the economy picks up, thanks in part to the fairly recent completion of the I-355 South Extension and the fact that that's where the open land is.  Given that, simple math should tell you that the Chicago part of the district will likely be less than a majority of it by the end of the decade.  Maybe by 2014, perhaps by 2016, but I'd be willing to bet for sure by the 2020 census.  Whether that matters politically is a different issue - Rush is a Democrat and IL-01 will still be heavily Democratic by the end of the decade.  But the Chicagoland demographic shifts are pretty clear.

[cinyc]

Kerry Bush numbers.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_131/-206079-1.html

Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), who was elected by a slim 2-point margin in November, received 51 percent, 54 percent and 49 percent in the 8th, 10th and 11th districts, respectively, according to the data.

In 2004, then-President George W. Bush received 49 percent of the vote in the 8th, 46 percent in the 10th district and 49 percent in the 11th district.



As I suspected, no reason at all for 8 and 11 to be automatically gone.

I spent a good part of the holiday weekend trying to crunch the Kerry-Bush numbers myself, and then ran into the substantial roadblock of (among others) Cook County and Chicago consolidating precincts since 2004, making direct comparisons impossible without finding the 2004 maps (which aren't on the Internet) or devising another workaround.  But 54-46% for Kerry-Bush IL-10 sounds about right.  I had Kerry with 53.9% of the vote, with definite errors.  

FWIW, I also have the Lake and Cook portions of IL-06 at 39.5% Kerry - but I stopped crunching the numbers after running into the geographical border conundrum.

[cinyc]

Here's what I have for '04 (Kerry/Bush), '08 (Obama/McCain), and PVI for each district.

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10

Thanks! 

So IL-10 goes from D+6 to D+8, while IL-03 goes from D+11 to only D+5. Do the mappers hate Lipinski or did they (more likely) run out of Democratic-leaning areas to give him?