6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Noem is back in the lead by 100 votes in SD.

[Dan the Roman]

ME is going to take some time. Most areas are still handcounted, and because it is down at the town rather than the county level, they tend to come in batches. That said, the primaries on both sides are complete messes.

The GOP one is, as usual in Maine, the most important one. For all the talk of Maine being a blue state, moderate Republicans almost always beat liberal Democrats, and generally have a leg up on moderate ones. On the other hand, creationist crazies tend to go down in flames quite spectacularly. Peter Mills almost certanly would have won the general had he won the primary in 2006, and either he or Steve Abbott would be favorites if they pull through tonight. Les Otten has money, but self-funders have not done well in the state recently, and he has moved somewhat to the right in the primary. Paul LePage would be creamed in Portland and Cumberland county. Of the others, not quite worth going through them

In terms of support, Mills will have most of the liberals, at least those who vote in the GOP primary. Abbott is the candidate of the Collins machine, Otten, the candidate of those unhappy with it. LePage represents the tea Party movement, which is odd because he has been a fairly liberal mayor of a college/factory town.

I still think Abbott should have ran for ME-01, where he would be the favorite in the primary and have had decent shot at beating Pingree. I am hoping Mills pulls it through though him or Abbott would probably win the general. I think Otten might even have a chance but less of one then Mills or Abbott.

Results starting to trickle in from AR. Lincoln up 53-47. She was up 57-43, you can see where this is going.

From a GOp perspective, Abbott absolutely should have run for ME-01. The problem is that there is a bit of moderate infighting between the Collins/Northern Maine faction and the Snowe/Urban faction. In 2006 this let Chandler Woodcock win with 38% of the vote, with the Collins-backed Emerey costing Mills the nomination. This time Mills is running again, feeling he was cheated out of 2006, while Abbott thinks its his year. They may well end up just splitting the moderate vote again. And Maine is a state with a substantial moderate vote in the GOP primary.

Why are they fighting each other. They should work together before the ME GOP gets destroyed or is pushed rightword.

Haley back at 48% in SC.

That may well be the outcome of the disaster that looks to be happening this evening. Christ, this is the second time in a row that the GOP threw away the governorship in Maine.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In the Supt. of Ed. race, looks like the field has narrowed from 5 to 4.  It looks like Nelsen won't make the runoff.  I'm surprised at how well Moffly is doing.  She ran in 2006 and didn't do this well in the primary, which one reason I chose to vote for Nelsen instead of Moffly as I didn't think she had a chance of making he runoff while I thought he did.  Right now only Zais is assured of making the runoff, but Moffly is second, tho closely trailed by Payne and Burgess.

[Sam Spade]

Calhoun - done (CD-4)

Halter 58%, Lincoln 42%

Primary - H 47%, L 30%, M 24%

That isn't going to get the job done.  I need to see the larger counties first, of course, but splitting the Morrison vote = Halter loss.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Haley at 49% with about 71% reporting.

[Lunar]

Haley at 49%.

Wow.  If she can get to 50.01, color me F'n amazed at Sanford's operation and her political talents.

A state rep., getting a MAJORITY, not a plurality, against so many other other SERIOUS candidates, some federal some statewide, despite allegations of an affair....wow.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Scott Sipprelle is losing 55-45 in NJ-12,

Monmouth (Corsi's home county) is mostly in, whereas Mercer, where Sipprelle is from, is only 1/139 reporting.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Noem up 40-38 in SD-AL, while Daugaard might as well start measuring the governor's mansion for drapes.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Runyon wins NJ-03, but only by a 56-44 margin, Burlington barely moved the dial; despite him winning it 2-1, it only had 3,000 votes.

[Lief 🗽]

Haley at 49%.

Wow.  If she can get to 50.01, color me F'n amazed at Sanford's operation and her political talents.

A state rep., getting a MAJORITY, not a plurality, against so many other other SERIOUS candidates, some federal some statewide, despite because of allegations of an affair....wow.

FTFY

[cinyc]

Scott Sipprelle is losing 55-45 in NJ-12,

Monmouth (Corsi's home county) is mostly in, whereas Mercer, where Sipprelle is from, is only 1/139 reporting.

Yeah, but Middlesex is also totally out.  If this ends up being a NY vs. Philly TV market thing, Sipprelle is toast.   Middlesex >>> Mercer

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Runyon winning 56%-44% with 97% reporting.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Gowdy's at 50% but almost all of the precints that haven't reported are in Greenville County where Inglis has been winning, but not by enough.  I'd guess the final result will be 43-33 Gowdy which is better than what the polls had been predicting for the first round for Gowdy,

[cinyc]

Runyon winning 56%-44% with 97% reporting.

Percentage reporting HAS to be a typo.  But AP has finally called it for Runyan.


Edited to add:  The AP's numbers are lagging the Burlington County website.  Runyan's margin will be higher. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Maine update, 7% in...

LePage continues to dominate (relatively speaking), he's up 33-20 over Otten. Rowe remains in the lead, but Mitchell is coming up behind him. He's only up 34-30 now.

[Lunar]

Haley at 49%.

Wow.  If she can get to 50.01, color me F'n amazed at Sanford's operation and her political talents.

A state rep., getting a MAJORITY, not a plurality, against so many other other SERIOUS candidates, some federal some statewide, despite because of allegations of an affair....wow.

FTFY

Hey, look, the "despite" still applies, even if she had enough political talent to show those f&*(ers that their racist, sexist, sleazy techniques can be turned against them, even in a GOP primary in South Carolina.

If you can turn a serious sleazy attack into a gain without any proof on either side, that's the more to your credit. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The AP's Burlington numbers are off, the County website says Runyon won it 5,815 - 3,005.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Runyon winning 56%-44% with 97% reporting.

Percentage reporting HAS to be a typo.  But AP has finally called it for Runyan.


Edited to add:  The AP's numbers are lagging the Burlington County website.  Runyan's margin will be higher. 

AP has 486 precincts in out of 505. 486/505=96.2%. Yea, its off by 1.

[cinyc]

The AP's Burlington numbers are off, the County website says Runyon won it 5,815 - 3,005.

By my math, Runyan will win by something like 59-41 or 60-40, depending on how much is still out and how things end up rounding.  He won the two Philly DMA counties with about 2/3rds of the vote while squeezing by narrowly in the NYC DMA county of Ocean.

[Progressive]

What's going on in AR? Is this bad news for Halter?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

AP is being strange in deciding when to call SC House races.

They've called a race that's at 52-48 with 26 of 29 precincts reporting, but haven't called an 82-18 race with 12 of 21 reporting.

[Sam Spade]

Btw, if anyone cares - Halter's going to go down by 5%-7%, possibly more.  You heard it hear first.

(I reserve the right to be completely wrong, of course - this is a very early call based on a lot of incomplete info, but I have to occasionally gamble so I can be vague at other points.  )

[ajc0918]

TIM SCOTT is leading!

WooHoo for Black Republicans, lol...
(SC-01)

[War on Want]

I agree with Sam, Halter is underperforming in a boatload of counties where he should be creaming Lincoln.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Arkansas House runoffs...

AR-01: Causey barely leads Wooldridge 51-49.
AR-02: Elliott barely leads Wills 51-49. She's winning Pulaski while Wills is winning everywhere else.
AR-03: Bledsoe barely leads Womack 51-49.