Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

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Antwerp poll

NVA 32
Groen: 20
SPA: 13
VB: 12
PVDA: 8
CDV: 7
VLD: 5

It's not a bad poll for De Wever because VB is strong and so NVA is unavoidable.

Considering the polls, VB seems to to a come back at the expense of the NVA.

Flanders level

NVA 25
CDV 17
Groen 14
VLD 13
SPA 12
VB 11
PVDA 4

Brussels

MR 19
Defi 16
PS 15
Ecolo 13
PTB 9
CDH 6
PP 2
ISLAM 2

and for flemish parties:

NVA 6
Groen 2,2
VB 2

Wallonie

PS 23
MR 20
PTB 13
ECOLO 11
CDH 10
Defi 7
PP 7

VB 2

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Results will be released at 15.00h tomorrow. If David or a mod can edit the title to indicate this is happening that'd be cool.

Done.

Thanks a lot.

Another article you and french-speakers might find interesting from BePolitix with a nice run down of how the parties in WalloBrux are shaping up heading into tomorrow. Its very different case to Flanders though because only something like 40% of the communes in Wallonia have the same party configuration as the federal level, compared to 80% in Flanders.

https://absp.be/Blog/2018/10/08/les-elections-communales-en-wallonie-et-a-bruxelles-au-prisme-de-la-fragmentation/

Happy to translate for others if there is interest, but I imagine it should be fine with a translation app.

For me the key things to look out for in the context of next year's federals:

1/ How PS does in Liege and suburbs vs ECOLO and particularly PTB.
2/ How Défi splits the MR vote in major Walloon cities
3/ Whether Lutgen can survive his mayorship and a potential slide in the provincial elections (Luxemburg provincial results and his own personal battle with his brother)
4/ the final breakthrough of the far right, although given something like 6 far right parties are running in Charleroi alone, it seems unlikely they will ever unite. PP have aggressively campaign and even allied with Steve Bannon of all people to try to get funds and legitimacy.

I guess the most publicised/battles are still Mons/Bergen, Bastogne for the Lutgen face off, and Namur which is always a close battle between the traditional parties and now has the added surge of Défi. Schaerbeek should provide drama as it always does every 6 years in Brussels.

Otherwise it has been a relatively low key election compared to the last.

Brussel city will be interessant to observe: PS should lose lots of votes (30 to... 15 % ?) ans a poll some months ago gave Ecolo first with 20 %. PS has had lots of money scandal so the fall is quite possible.

Concerning the PP, it's now or never. The party has the best environment to have success: MR in power, migration, (a little) better media coverage... Last poll has PP at 7 % at the regional level so I wait big results in Verviers, Liege, Charleroi, Dison, Mouscron, Frameries and so on.

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Zelzate (6/9)

SPA 30 (+11)
VLD 26 (-2)
PVDA 20 (-2)
VB 7 (+1)

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Genk (50%)

CDV (pro-erdogan): 36 (-4)
NVA (kurd): 30
SPA 11 (-5)
VB 10 (=)
PVDA 5 (-4)

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Oostende (68/71)

SPA: 20 (-9)
NVA 19 (-7)
VLD 16 (+3)
VB 16 (+7)
Groen 15 (+5)
CDV 8 (-1)

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Genk (50%)

CDV (pro-erdogan): 36 (-4)
NVA (kurd): 30

What?

Party of erdogan asked voters to vote against Demir. Demir is kurd

CDV: 34
NVA 24
VB 12
SPA 11
Groen 6
PVDA 6

44/49

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First result good for De Wever in Antwerp: (5/9)

NVA 36
groen 18
spa 11
VB 10
PVDA 9
CDV 7
VLD 5

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in ninove: (7/14)

VB 40
VLD 26
samen 22
NVA 9

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https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2018/10/16/nationalists-will-not-be-entering-into-coalition-talks-with-forz/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There has been controversies among several alleged nazi-greets during the victory celebration and among racist posts being made on facebook several years ago.

-it was not nazi-greets.

https://www.7sur7.be/7s7/fr/1502/Belgique/article/detail/3486844/2018/10/16/Non-le-Vlaams-Belang-n-a-pas-fete-sa-victoire-par-un-salut-nazi.dhtml

-to be honest, I don't understand the chocomousse-post facebook.

It's important to note that NVA will not support an anti-Vlaams belang coalitie in Ninove. But wihtout NVA support, no majority for anyone. So imbroglio...

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At this hour, it seems that there will not be an agreement in the government. So the NVA should quit the government.

wow ! I'm surprised. "Abstention" by Belgium seemed to me a good agreement to preserve the NVA in the majority but NVA is in full campaign mod. I'm curious to see if there will be consequences for Antwerp (and ninove). 

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At this hour, it seems that there will not be an agreement in the government. So the NVA should quit the government.

wow ! I'm surprised. "Abstention" by Belgium seemed to me a good agreement to preserve the NVA in the majority but NVA is in full campaign mod. I'm curious to see if there will be consequences for Antwerp (and ninove). 

"Ce n'est qu'en octobre, lorsque le chancelier autrichien Sebastian Kurz annoncera le retrait de son pays, que la N-VA a exprimé ses réticences."

lol

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Flanders poll

NVA 30
CDV 16
Groen 14
VB 12
VLD 11
SPA 9
PVDA 5

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She will lead the CDV list in the "flandre orientale" province. So she will be elected and will probably be in the next government, probably not in charge of environment.

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Alain Destexhe has finally quit MR to form a new far right party. Surprised this is getting a lot of traction but then again things are relatively quiet despite having a sit in government.

An alliance with PP would give a good result (5-7%, maybe more) but it seems unlikely.

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Has anyone noticed the nationalist demagoguery coming out of certain CD&V politicians? Like I read in La Libre the other day that this one guy wants to go on strike and refuse to speak French in Brussels one day per week.

it's  been like that for ages. The N-VA splitting from them just made them go into an outbidding process of who can antagonize francophones the most.

Who's more francophobic, the CD&V or the Open VLD? Not even asking about the N-VA because that's basically their platform...

CDV but "francophobic" is exagerated.

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the surge of VB is due to the NVA exercise of the power in the michel government and a good and fresh president (van grieken), a young guy who begins to be popular.

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Destexhe will have seats (and probably a group)  in the Brussels assembly because there is a technical agreement between Destexhe and the PP to have it: votes for PP and destexhe will be counted together.

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Polls. A lot of this was done pre-Corona lockdown.

WALLONIE

PS 25,5%
MR 19,6%
PTB 18,6%
Ecolo 15,5%
cdH 7,5%
Défi +0,4%

FLANDRE

Vlaams Belang 28%
N-VA 20,7%
CD&V 11,7%
Open Vld 10,3%
sp.a 9,6%
PVDA (aile flamande PTB) 9,3%

BRUXELLES

PS 20,5%
Ecolo 20,3%
MR 17,6%
PTB 12,2%
Défi 10%
cdH 3,8%

In flanders: VB + PVDA= 37 % wow, for a rich region...

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Do they plan something like unity government for the duration of the corona, then resume negotiations, drag them on forever and let Wilmès stay in power until kingdom come or (more likely) N-VA gets fed up?

Anyway, here's an idea for a bet:
What will be the first dubious SHOCK POLL! to come after the grand coalition is formed?
a) VB at 40% in Flanders
b) PTB+Ecolo at 40% in Wallonia and/or Brussels

a) no (maybe 30 but not 40)
b) no (ecolo, at the power in Wallonie, is going down. But PTB at 20 is possible but only in polls. Not on election day)

The unity gov will be not only for one year but beyond.

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Dries Van Langenhove announced he will resign from parliament. He was the Vlaams Belang spokesman on asylum and immigration and says the media boycott against him as a person hampered VB's potential to raise attention for the party's stance on this crucial issue. DVL's exit removes one of the main arguments for the N-VA against cooperation with VB after 2024. They still won't do it, but the obligatory ritual dance may now take a few more additional weeks.

De Wever was strong recently about impose the autonomy of Flanders "extralegally".
and how to impose it without the voices of the vb? 
but in the end, it's mathematical.

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NVA will decide in flanders (with SPA) and PS in Wallonie (with MR ?). these 2 dominant parties will have to discuss to form a coalition at the federal level. With who is the question. Probably with VLD and MR. To see.

The alternative is a NVA+ VB in flanders and PS + PTB in Wallonie. Chaos.

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Didier Reynders, EU Justice Commissioner, is considering a shock return to Belgian front line politics challenging Bouchez for the MR presidency. Bouchez started out in Reynders's faction and as one of his cabinet members and was seen as a unity candidate of the Reynders-Michel clan wars but has slowly trended towards the Michel faction, nominating the hapless brother of the family for a federal portfolio in the process. Now Bouchez is facing a lot of internal strife because of his style as much as his

Meanwhile Les Engagés are looking for a front line politics candidate in Brussels and have asked the usual "token" public faces, but continually are rejected. Their polling in Brussels is not looking good.

source about the reynders come back ? (EDIT: sudpress.  Wait and see.)

the irony is that reynders is (was ?) more conservative than the michel faction. It will not be  easy for reynders because bouchez is very popular amongst MR members. And curious to see the Denis Ducarme opinion about it: He did peace with bouchez and will be the candidate in charleroi.

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I think Ducarme will back Bouchez but quietly because he won't want to create tensions in his campaign for Charleroi.

He did. No suprise but good for Bouchez.

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Sammy Mahdi (the flemish christian (?) democrat party leader) in drag queen.

I was not ready for it.

I presume that the CDV strategy to win next election will not based on the muslim vote.

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On the French-speaking side, there is a big controversy concerning the "Evras guide", a guide on which is based the "training" of 2 hours per year mandatory for students aged 10-11 and 14-15.

The political class voted unanimously in favour, minus the 3 abstentions of the "engagés" (ex-CDH, ex PSC). But on the day of the vote, a demonstration of several hundred people (mostly veiled Muslim women) was held and the media hype began. The Minister of Education (PS) tried to reassure by specifying that this training was not intended to encourage children to change their gender, even if it is specified that the goal is to "become aware that gender identity can be identical or different, get closer, move away, correspond, not match, differ, oscillate, ... of the one assigned at birth."

The day of the vote, Bouchez confirmed the approval of the guide by his party but said that he would be attentive to what would be learned during this training.

Since then, the debate has been heated. And, what is tragic, at some schools. Indeed, individuals set fire to 6 schools in Wallonia (!).

The debate will go on because the subject is important. From a political point of view, it will be interesting to see if this does not impact the result of the Socialist Party in Brussels, already weakened by the exculsion of Kir and the predominance of Moroccans over Turks and the strong competition of the ecologists (and the PTB). Even MR.