Primary scenario

[Gustaf]

its amazing how fast people respond to postings

lol  I know!  It's hard to keep up sometimes.

"people", it's basically some people, like JR or Miami who can be really, really fast sometimes. Not everyone are...

[Gustaf]

Lol, well put!

well we are Supreme Gods

its amazing how fast people respond to postings

lol  I know!  It's hard to keep up sometimes.

"people", it's basically some people, like JR or Miami who can be really, really fast sometimes. Not everyone are...

[Gustaf]

Hello everyone

 I just found the site a few days ago and the forums seemed rather lively, so I figured I'd drop on by. 18-year old liberal from Maryland.

Welcome - most of us don't bite so don't be afraid to post, as long as it's not too personally offensive.  Do you think it will take until Super Tueday for Dean to wrap it up?  Some think he'll run away with it starting 1-19.

Just like to extend my welcome as well...be sure to check out the recreational threads further down the list, that's where we try to have fun...

[Gustaf]

OK, here I go now.

Iowa: as media focuses on the rise of Edwards and Kerry, Gephardt drops to 3rd or 4th place, after which he drops out. He is out of money, he didn't win IA, which ought to have been a shoe-in for him, he's toast. Kerry wins and recieves a major boost, Edwards is boosted too. Those who weren't around, Clark in particular, are hurt. Clark is hurt by other things as well.

New Hampshire: Dean and Kerry battle for it, and in the end it's a virtual tie, but with Dean winning narrowly. Edwards runs in as a surprising 3rd, while Lieberman comes 4th. Clark ends up in a humiliating 5th place, and his campaign dies, even though he decides to stay around for Feb 3rd.

Feb 3rd: Edwards manages to win SC, and does well in other primaries as well. Kerry also does well, Dean underperforms, but still does reasonably well. Clark and Lieberman are done for and drops out.

The rest: Kerry, Dean and Edwards battle it out, and Edwards ends up as the nominee.

[Gustaf]

Iowa is close so i will make another Predction
Dean: 31%
Kerry: 30%
Edwards: 24%
Gepthart: 19%

All together that equals 104%

HAHA...
And he didn't even listt he other candidates who will get some votes.

Watch out he'll tell God.

A messenger from God is not bound by the laws of math!  You'll be struck down where you type if you don't watch it!

Haha...we shouldn't question God just b/c we don't understand His mysterious ways, right JMF?

[Gustaf]

Dean wins Iowa and NH fairly easily.  Kerry drops out of the race.

SC- Clark wins, keeping him alive.

Gephardt, edwards drop out.

Feb. 3:

Arizona-Dean
Delaware-Dean
Missouri-Clark
New Mexico-Dean
North Dakota- Clark
Oklahoma-Clark

Dean wins the nomination.

Pretty damn accurate prediction.

Well...I guess you could say..hmmmm....you were right on Clark winning Oklahoma!

[Gustaf]

Not winning Iowa was a huge rejection. I am not so sure he would've been able to stop the Kerry-momentum after losing Iowa.

[Gustaf]

If Gephardt had stayed in he would have won Michigan and Missouri.  He'd still be a player for the nomination.

I don't think so, finishing 4th in Iowa was too much. Kerry would still have won New Hampshire and been on the same roller coaster. We would've seen Gephardt fall as fast as Dean did, if not worse. He would've had trouble winning Missouri, and I very much doubt he would have won Michigan.

[Gustaf]

Good quote elcorazon!