Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Mike88]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that there could be a shy VVD vote out there:

32 VVD
23 PVV
21 CDA
17 GL
16 D66
12 SP
  9 PvdA
  7 CU
  4 50+
  4 PvvD
  3 SGP
  1 Denk
  1 FvD  

Not bad my prediction. Although i exaggerated a bit on PVV and GL and underestimated D66. I believe Tender also made a spot on prediction.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The distribution of votes for the SGP is so weird. They win more gemeenten than GL, D66 and CU combined but are at 2,3%. I mean they get 20,9% in Zwartewaterland and 5 kilometers away in Hattem they only get 2,2%. What the hell is that?

The Dutch Bible belt

 
 
But it isn't a belt. I mean it would make sense to me if let's say everything east and south of the Flevopolder was the strong area for the SGP but it's always like one municipality, then come three normal ones and then another SGP municipality. 
 
 

The belt exists, but it's not a perfect one

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What exactly is the voter base of the Animal Rights' party and how is it different to GL?

[Bumaye]

PVV seems to get a 20th seat while GL is down to 14. A little unfortunate, but won't change much in the grand scheme of things.

[Tintrlvr]

PVV seems to get a 20th seat while GL is down to 14. A little unfortunate, but won't change much in the grand scheme of things.

GL is going to finish behind SP in sixth, at least in votes, and tied for fifth in seats, which has to be disappointing for a party that at times was flirting with second.

[MAINEiac4434]

PVV seems to get a 20th seat while GL is down to 14. A little unfortunate, but won't change much in the grand scheme of things.

Disappointing. I was liking that PVV was on equal power with D66 and CDA.

[ApatheticAustrian]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

[MAINEiac4434]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

No, I'm ecstatic that Wilders has been told "BTFO" by the Dutch electorate. Klaver's going to be in a golden position in the next election.

[Intell]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

No, I'm ecstatic that Wilders has been told "BTFO" by the Dutch electorate. Klaver's going to be in a golden position in the next election.

Did you support D66, and why for a party so right-wing economically?

[MAINEiac4434]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

No, I'm ecstatic that Wilders has been told "BTFO" by the Dutch electorate. Klaver's going to be in a golden position in the next election.

Did you support D66, and why for a party so right-wing economically?

Judging by the polls, best chance for a non-VVD, CDA or PVV largest party and Prime Minister.

[Intell]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

No, I'm ecstatic that Wilders has been told "BTFO" by the Dutch electorate. Klaver's going to be in a golden position in the next election.

Did you support D66, and why for a party so right-wing economically?

Judging by the polls, best chance for a non-VVD, CDA or PVV largest party and Prime Minister.

Still don't understand, when it's decided by coalitions.

[MAINEiac4434]

surely disappointing if you wish for a leftish influence in politics - like i do - but this could have played out even worse and it was, kind of, the worst possible scenario for the general european left.

DENK/Wilders/party-splitting are all weakening a singular influence....surely going to be better the next time and since there are going to be, most likely, neither leftish nor crypto-culturalist fingerprints on the agenda of the next government, the time for healing is now.

No, I'm ecstatic that Wilders has been told "BTFO" by the Dutch electorate. Klaver's going to be in a golden position in the next election.

Did you support D66, and why for a party so right-wing economically?

Judging by the polls, best chance for a non-VVD, CDA or PVV largest party and Prime Minister.

Still don't understand, when it's decided by coalitions.

My thinking was the best chance for a center-left coalition was one led by D66. Maybe the GL wouldn't have wanted to work with D66, like they don't want to work with VVD. I guess we'll never know.

The D66 consistently polled above GL (though occasionally the GL leapfrogged them, but those were outliers). I figured GL, SP and PvdA would've been more willing to work with a socially progressive, albeit fiscally center-to-right party than a totally conservative party like VVD or CDA (and the PVV wasn't even a question, of course).

[adma]

Actually, has anyone speculated on the parallels btw/PvdA's result and that of the Clegg Lib Dems in 2015?

[Horus]

Looks like D66 did a bit better than expected. They're only the best party in the entire world, so that's good to see.

[mvd10]

So it's probably going to be a centre-right VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. Excellent result. D66 and CU will clash, but GL and PvdA won't join VVD-CDA-D66 if there is another viable 4 party coalition so it's probably the only option. I actually don't think a formation with those 4 parties should take very long.


VVD-PVV-CDA-SGP-FvD has a majority btw. Not going to happen but it shows that the right is fairly strong in the Netherlands.

[Vosem]

What is keeping some of these late municipalities from reporting?

[Zinneke]

Actually, has anyone speculated on the parallels btw/PvdA's result and that of the Clegg Lib Dems in 2015?

Yup, Nick Clegg himself, in an NOS interview a few months ago.

[peterthlee]

Dutch people, I'm really proud of you. You beat the polls and fended off fascism.

[Donerail]

So it's probably going to be a centre-right VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. Excellent result. D66 and CU will clash, but GL and PvdA won't join VVD-CDA-D66 if there is another viable 4 party coalition so it's probably the only option. I actually don't think a formation with those 4 parties should take very long.

What about the possibility of VVD-D66-GL-PvdA? It's difficult for me to see what motivation the CDA would have to go into coalition with Rutte. If they refuse to participate, they essentially force Rutte into purple plus and can position themselves as the main party of the right at the next election. What incentive do they have to play nice?

[jeron]

So it's probably going to be a centre-right VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. Excellent result. D66 and CU will clash, but GL and PvdA won't join VVD-CDA-D66 if there is another viable 4 party coalition so it's probably the only option. I actually don't think a formation with those 4 parties should take very long.

What about the possibility of VVD-D66-GL-PvdA? It's difficult for me to see what motivation the CDA would have to go into coalition with Rutte. If they refuse to participate, they essentially force Rutte into purple plus and can position themselves as the main party of the right at the next election. What incentive do they have to play nice?

At this point there's no majority for such a coalition. 33+19+14+9= 75. This coalition also wouldn't have a majority in the senate where it has 35 of 75 seats. That makes it very unlikely.

[Dutch Conservative]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

[DavidB.]

Excellent analysis, Dutch Conservative -- don't have much to add here.

14 seats for the Jessiah is underwhelming and 42 seats for the left (SP-GL-PvdA-PvdD) should be an all-time low; the PvdA got 38 on their own last time around.

[windjammer]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Regarding your point on PVV, they blew a 40 seats result and instead got only 20. How can you say that this is a good result for them. They massively underperformed the polls.
In every country the far right is rising, with the Netherlands having partiesry with strong far right parties (Fortuin etc), the fact they massively underpolled the polls should be worrying for them.

[Zinneke]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Interesting thoughts, particularly the one about Balkende. I'm surprised though that you think the Duth Left will not come out of this feeling disappointed. PvdA have lost 28 seats, GL gained 10, D66 7. SP lost one. Does´t look good.

[FrancoAgo]

i don't understand why you all give this importance to the party that get first place in a municipality, they not win nothing getting the first place in any municipality.

With 27,1% this would be the badest result for the "left" since WW2

actually i'm not  sure that PvdA is a left party