GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[Fusternino]

What is Perdue at? I only see a total for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What is Perdue at? I only see a total for Trump.

Nobody filed to run against Perdue.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What is Perdue at? I only see a total for Trump.

Nobody filed to run against Perdue.

His and Trumps numbers are still reported on county websites and the SOS. Perdue is getting a few more votes than Trump in the metro counties, similar to the Dem Senate race getting more voters than the Presidential contest

The SOS site is useless though since it’s way behind everywhere else

[Rookie Yinzer]

Maya Dillard-Smith seems to have come out of nowhere to have kept up with Amico and Tomlinson. Is it a given that Tomlinson will be in second place?

I think her domination in the Columbus Metro is going to be enough to keep her above Amico and Smith even if she continues to languish in 3rd and 4th in some of these Metro counties.

[Continential]

Since Maya Dillard Smith came out of nowhere, hopefully she runs for another office soon, she is the Georgia director of the ACLU from what I've heard.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, Dems are dodging a bullet with Tomlinson. She seems like a mess. Not only is she putting out statements like this - when she barely got 15% herself - but she may even end up in 3rd once the rest of the votes come in.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1270742532541026305

[Upstater]

Honestly, Dems are dodging a bullet with Tomlinson. She seems like a mess. Not only is she putting out statements like this - when she barely got 15% herself - but she may even end up in 3rd once the rest of the votes come in.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1270742532541026305

Being toxic towards fellow Democrats isn't going to help anyone and it certainly won't help Tomlinson.

[Pollster]

I've been a supporter of Tomlinson's since before she launched this campaign, but she needs to take this L.

Learn the lessons, identify what went wrong, build up connections and goodwill, get ready to run in 2022 for Governor if Abrams winds up elsewhere, or LG or SoS if she doesn't.

[wbrocks67]

Considering there is possibly hundreds of thousands of votes still out, it will also look embarrassing for Tomlinson if Ossoff ends up at 50% when all is said & done

[2016]

Considering there is possibly hundreds of thousands of votes still out, it will also look embarrassing for Tomlinson if Ossoff ends up at 50% when all is said & done

There are some 40 Precincts left in the DeKalb and 20 in Fulton and Ossoff needs a Net Gain of 30K to 50K to avoid a Runoff.

[n1240]

Considering there is possibly hundreds of thousands of votes still out, it will also look embarrassing for Tomlinson if Ossoff ends up at 50% when all is said & done

There are some 40 Precincts left in the DeKalb and 20 in Fulton and Ossoff needs a Net Gain of 30K to 50K to avoid a Runoff.

DeKalb has counted 0 absentee votes (out of a bit over 100k) and Fulton is missing a large amount of their mail-in absentee votes.

I'd expect Ossoff to avoid a runoff pretty easily at this rate, unless some counties are lumping in absentee mail-in vote with election day vote for whatever reason.

[Suburbia]

Both Georgia races are Lean R.

The GA GOP looks like they have a lock on voting procedures

NC is more likely to flip than GA

[wbrocks67]

Considering there is possibly hundreds of thousands of votes still out, it will also look embarrassing for Tomlinson if Ossoff ends up at 50% when all is said & done

There are some 40 Precincts left in the DeKalb and 20 in Fulton and Ossoff needs a Net Gain of 30K to 50K to avoid a Runoff.

% of precincts counted and % of the vote counted are both pretty much null right now. They don't really mean anything, b/c there are tons of mail and absentee ballots outstanding. Those aren't really factored in the % reporting

[Oryxslayer]

Considering there is possibly hundreds of thousands of votes still out, it will also look embarrassing for Tomlinson if Ossoff ends up at 50% when all is said & done

There are some 40 Precincts left in the DeKalb and 20 in Fulton and Ossoff needs a Net Gain of 30K to 50K to avoid a Runoff.

DeKalb has counted 0 absentee votes (out of a bit over 100k) and Fulton is missing a large amount of their mail-in absentee votes.

I'd expect Ossoff to avoid a runoff pretty easily at this rate, unless some counties are lumping in absentee mail-in vote with election day vote for whatever reason.

Yes, this is election week. The increase in absentee voting means that most counties have not had the time to process these ballots yet - reminder they took a long time with 10x fewer ballots in 2018 which dragged out the count. The question if if the absentee ballots put Ossoff over. These absentee ballots could be more white than the day vote, since educated liberals are more likely to use the system. This scenario probably puts Ossoff over. If the absentees match the e-day demos, then Ossoff probably doesn't gain enough, but still goes up since urban areas have more people visibly concerned about corona.

[wbrocks67]

This is JUST Dekalb-

https://twitter.com/ByTylerEstep/status/1270758645534527488

[Oryxslayer]

This is JUST Dekalb-

https://twitter.com/ByTylerEstep/status/1270758645534527488

These are not all dems btw. If you go back a bit in the statewide GA thread you will find large county breakdowns of the mail ballots by partisanship. In general it's what you expect with big dem leads in the blue metro counties, but there is some signs of educated liberals using the system, since the dem numbers were good in the red counties and not just the blue ones.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is JUST Dekalb-

https://twitter.com/ByTylerEstep/status/1270758645534527488

These are not all dems btw. If you go back a bit in the statewide GA thread you will find large county breakdowns of the mail ballots by partisanship. In general it's what you expect with big dem leads in the blue metro counties, but there is some signs of educated liberals using the system, since the dem numbers were good in the red counties and not just the blue ones.

I suspect 85-90 percent of DeKalb mail ins are Dems though. So lots of potential votes for Ossoff.

[n1240]

Considering there is possibly hundreds of thousands of votes still out, it will also look embarrassing for Tomlinson if Ossoff ends up at 50% when all is said & done

There are some 40 Precincts left in the DeKalb and 20 in Fulton and Ossoff needs a Net Gain of 30K to 50K to avoid a Runoff.

DeKalb has counted 0 absentee votes (out of a bit over 100k) and Fulton is missing a large amount of their mail-in absentee votes.

I'd expect Ossoff to avoid a runoff pretty easily at this rate, unless some counties are lumping in absentee mail-in vote with election day vote for whatever reason.

Yes, this is election week. The increase in absentee voting means that most counties have not had the time to process these ballots yet - reminder they took a long time with 10x fewer ballots in 2018 which dragged out the count. The question if if the absentee ballots put Ossoff over. These absentee ballots could be more white than the day vote, since educated liberals are more likely to use the system. This scenario probably puts Ossoff over. If the absentees match the e-day demos, then Ossoff probably doesn't gain enough, but still goes up since urban areas have more people visibly concerned about corona.

Just sampling from counties that seem to have reasonable amount of absentee vote in:

Cherokee:
Eday: Ossoff 52.8%
Early In-person: Ossoff 59.4%
Absentee by mail: Ossoff 63.8%

Clayton:

Eday: Ossoff 46.5%
Early In-person: Ossoff 60.1%
Absentee by mail: 66.2%

Fulton:

Eday: 53.3%
Early In-person: Ossoff 60.2%
not enough absentee by mail

Richmond

Eday: 38.1%
Early In-person: 47.4%
Absentee by mail: 46.4%

Cobb

Eday: 52.7%
Early In-person: 59.0%
Absentee by mail: 67.1%

Fairly arbitrary selection of large counties but the trend is pretty clear, Ossoff does much better among absentee votes. Considering the bulk of the outstanding absentee vote is centered in the Atlanta metro area, I'd be pretty shocked if he misses 50%.

[n1240]

This is JUST Dekalb-

https://twitter.com/ByTylerEstep/status/1270758645534527488

These are not all dems btw. If you go back a bit in the statewide GA thread you will find large county breakdowns of the mail ballots by partisanship. In general it's what you expect with big dem leads in the blue metro counties, but there is some signs of educated liberals using the system, since the dem numbers were good in the red counties and not just the blue ones.

I suspect 85-90 percent of DeKalb mail ins are Dems though. So lots of potential votes for Ossoff.

105k Dem votes as of about 12 hours ago in the absentee vote file, but there are 122k total returns in the file, meaning some absentee returns weren't reported to the state at the time the voter file was published, so might be able to expect 115k absentee votes in DeKalb assuming the elections board estimate of remaining ballots is accurate

[n1240]

Ossoff up to 49.1% after some more election day precincts and about 20% of the absentee vote in DeKalb (all of the early in-person absentee, it appears). Ossoff received 60.4% of the early in-person vote in DeKalb.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tomlinson is acting like a two year old! Your not winning the runoff! DSCC needs to put the pressure on her!

[wbrocks67]

A lot left in Fulton as well

https://twitter.com/ben_brasch/status/1270757687438069763

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, I wanted Ossoff to win outright anyway, but now I really need him to hit 50% b/c of Tomlinson acting like a petulant child.

[wbrocks67]

We still have more votes to go, but this is highly interesting - Dems outvoting Reps in both GA-06 and GA-07 (especially 7th)

GA-06
Dems 42,428
Reps 36,118

GA-07
Dems 50,342
Reps 34,812

[n1240]

Ossoff up to 49.996% statewide with new Fulton County results, they don't seem to be done with absentee votes yet, he's definitely advancing without a runoff.