2018 New Brunswick election

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

If results were proportional (idk why I do this with a lot of elections but I do)

Seat changes are from the actual results

Liberal: 19 seats (-2)
Progressive Conservative: 16 seats (-6)
People's Alliance: 6 seats (+3)
Greens: 6 seats (+3)
NDP: 2 seats (+2)

Likely government would be Liberal+Green

[Hatman 🍁]

If results were proportional (idk why I do this with a lot of elections but I do)

Seat changes are from the actual results

Liberal: 19 seats (-2)
Progressive Conservative: 16 seats (-6)
People's Alliance: 6 seats (+3)
Greens: 6 seats (+3)
NDP: 2 seats (+2)

Likely government would be Liberal+Green

Or Liberal+Green+NDP to get by the speaker issue.

A majority of the province voted for left of centre parties (and yes, the NB Liberals are a centre-left party, unlike the rest of their Atlantic counterparts). Reason #393 why we need electoral reform.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/cryptom9/status/1044433283772145665?s=19

Either way, PC+PA would still have 1 more vote than Lib+Green since the Liberal would have won w/o the Green.

It'd be a different situation though if the Libs were even on seats with the PCs instead of one down.

It seems as though it actually isn't a different situation as based on convention the Liberals still get the first chance to form the government.

Yes.

And given the results they'd still have to rely on the People's Alliance to prop up the government, which would be just a tad awkward for both parties

[Oryxslayer]

If results were proportional (idk why I do this with a lot of elections but I do)

Seat changes are from the actual results

Liberal: 19 seats (-2)
Progressive Conservative: 16 seats (-6)
People's Alliance: 6 seats (+3)
Greens: 6 seats (+3)
NDP: 2 seats (+2)

Likely government would be Liberal+Green

Or Liberal+Green+NDP to get by the speaker issue.

A majority of the province voted for left of centre parties (and yes, the NB Liberals are a centre-left party, unlike the rest of their Atlantic counterparts). Reason #393 why we need electoral reform.

Wait till we get to Quebec...CAQ might lose the pop vote but get 30 more seats then the PLQ. The incredulous thing though is that following New Brunswick's hung government, there has been chatter about electoral reform by every party except the PLQ!

[ON Progressive]

If results were proportional (idk why I do this with a lot of elections but I do)

Seat changes are from the actual results

Liberal: 19 seats (-2)
Progressive Conservative: 16 seats (-6)
People's Alliance: 6 seats (+3)
Greens: 6 seats (+3)
NDP: 2 seats (+2)

Likely government would be Liberal+Green

Or Liberal+Green+NDP to get by the speaker issue.

A majority of the province voted for left of centre parties (and yes, the NB Liberals are a centre-left party, unlike the rest of their Atlantic counterparts). Reason #393 why we need electoral reform.

Wait till we get to Quebec...CAQ might lose the pop vote but get 30 more seats then the PLQ. The incredulous thing though is that following New Brunswick's hung government, there has been chatter about electoral reform by every party except the PLQ!

The PLQ deserve to lose government if they are stupid enough to not support electoral reform when it would help them immensely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But it wouldn't help them - they would likely be in opposition most of the time with PR, as opposed to being in government most of the time with the present system.

[Hatman 🍁]

Which begs the question of what kind of coalitions PR would create in Quebec. Is it that far fetched that the CAQ would be the party most willing to work with the Liberals?

[JoeyOCanada]

Apparently a Higgs staffer sent an unauthorized email to Liberal MLA Brian Kenny in an attempt to have a phonecall to "discuss the future government"

[Hatman 🍁]

let the speaker poaching begin!

[DC Al Fine]

Which begs the question of what kind of coalitions PR would create in Quebec. Is it that far fetched that the CAQ would be the party most willing to work with the Liberals?

Ideologically no, but if they are the two largest parties they might not be keen to work together... Of course if we had PR who knows what the alignment would look like.

[Hatman 🍁]

I could see the CAQ working with the Liberals or the PQ, but I don't think the Liberals would have any choice but to work with the CAQ. Separatism would be a non starter for working with the other parties.

Of course, PR would probably see the rise of the smaller federalist parties, as people wouldn't feel the need to hold their nose and vote Liberal. But, coalitions would most likely be formed on the separatist vs federalist axis, rather than on ideology, which would cause for some strange bedfellows. Imagine a coalition of the NDP, Greens, Liberals and Conservatives!

[Oryxslayer]

I could see the CAQ working with the Liberals or the PQ, but I don't think the Liberals would have any choice but to work with the CAQ. Separatism would be a non starter for working with the other parties.

Of course, PR would probably see the rise of the smaller federalist parties, as people wouldn't feel the need to hold their nose and vote Liberal. But, coalitions would most likely be formed on the separatist vs federalist axis, rather than on ideology, which would cause for some strange bedfellows. Imagine a coalition of the NDP, Greens, Liberals and Conservatives!

I wouldn't say so - support for separatism is in the gutter. If anything, this election is what happens after the PLQ finally won that debate with the PQ in 2014. The CAQ rose in part because francophones are tired of having to compromise towards separatism. Then QS rose to everyone's left, since the federal 'left' voter on the island no longer feels forced to cast a ballot against the PQ. If anything, both previous parties have kinda been exposed this election, with the PLQ only treading water thanks to their loyal base of allophones, but even that's significantly down from 2014.

This Quebec election shows what every big party fears from electoral Reform: a change in the political spectrum. FPTP parties spend their history appealing to the median voter not thier base which is assumed to be loyal. But if the spectrum changes, the base will easily leave for a more applicable party if not cared for appropriately. I think the BC Libs fear this more then anything else, since their current coalition is entirely built around opposition to the NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

In 2007-8 ADQ worked with Charest, so I could see PLQ working with CAQ on econ issues. More likely issue by issue, and Legault said he wants the Assembly to last as long as possible.

[JoeyOCanada]

The People's Alliance are now saying that they won't work with the PCs...things are getting chippy in NB

[ON Progressive]

The People's Alliance are now saying that they won't work with the PCs...things are getting chippy in NB

I don't see a path for government then. Liberal + Green isn't enough, and the Liberals would lose the Francophone vote for a generation if they decided to work with the PA of all parties.

[Oryxslayer]

The People's Alliance are now saying that they won't work with the PCs...things are getting chippy in NB

I don't see a path for government then. Liberal + Green isn't enough, and the Liberals would lose the Francophone vote for a generation if they decided to work with the PA of all parties.

PC+Green, but how likely is that?

[bigic]

Or PC minority through a deal with the Liberals (although I think it's even more unlikely than PC-Green, but this option is immune to the speaker issue)?

[Hatman 🍁]

In 2007-8 ADQ worked with Charest, so I could see PLQ working with CAQ on econ issues. More likely issue by issue, and Legault said he wants the Assembly to last as long as possible.

Just talking hypotheticals here, under PR. Coalitions may become necessary (rather than 'partnerships') with PR, otherwise you get elections every 2 years.

[Former President tack50]

I could see the CAQ working with the Liberals or the PQ, but I don't think the Liberals would have any choice but to work with the CAQ. Separatism would be a non starter for working with the other parties.

Of course, PR would probably see the rise of the smaller federalist parties, as people wouldn't feel the need to hold their nose and vote Liberal. But, coalitions would most likely be formed on the separatist vs federalist axis, rather than on ideology, which would cause for some strange bedfellows. Imagine a coalition of the NDP, Greens, Liberals and Conservatives!

Speaking of Quebec and PR, if the experiences here and in Scotland are any indicator, the main axis will vary in time and depends on how important devolution and/or independence are at the time.

So for example for Quebec I'd imagine that in the 80s and 90s it would be extremely polarized around independence, not left-right. Meanwhile now I guess it would be closer and potentially more centered on standard left-right issues. Interestingly PLQ would be both blessed (as a centrist party they can potentially reach deals with anyone) and cursed (as the only unionist/federalist party, any deal will be tough)

Also, another thing that could happen is that Quebec could potentially become a 1 party province.

PNV has ruled the Basque Country basically forever except 2009-2012 (and the 2009 election saw some secessionist parties banned and is controversial). Catalonia has been ruled by CiU (and their succesors) every time except 2003-2010.

Scotland is a bit closer but even there the SNP has been in power since 2007 and it doesn't seem like they'll lose power any time soon.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/1045706579197218817

[the506]

While the horse trading begins, ENB put out the poll-by-poll results out pretty quickly, and they're up on the atlas:

http://www.election-atlas.ca/nb/

Remember St-Quentin, that town in that usually votes Conservative out of spite? It went Green this time. Go figure.

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/1045706579197218817

So if a PC minority government with PA support happens, will PA simply pull its support after 18 months and force new elections?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/1045706579197218817

So if a PC minority government with PA support happens, will PA simply pull its support after 18 months and force new elections?

If it isn't in their interests, then yes. But if the govt works, then they probably extend their support for a greater period.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/1045706579197218817

So if a PC minority government with PA support happens, will PA simply pull its support after 18 months and force new elections?

Not sure what anybody should make of this.  There is no agreement on anything other than the P.A leader has said his party won't bring down a P.C government for 18 months.  However, this is just an 'informal agreement' there isn't even an agreement on supply and confidence and the P.A also has a platform pledge to not whip votes, so how can he now promise his members won't vote to bring down a P.C government?

I'm not trying to play any politics here since I'm left leaning and these do seem to be the only possible parties that could agree (though maybe the P.Cs and the Greens can get together) baring recounts, but if this informal arrangement is the only agreement between the P.Cs and the P.A, I think the Lieutenant Governor would have to reject it as it simply provides no guarantees for even 18 months.

[Hatman 🍁]

While the horse trading begins, ENB put out the poll-by-poll results out pretty quickly, and they're up on the atlas:

http://www.election-atlas.ca/nb/

Remember St-Quentin, that town in that usually votes Conservative out of spite? It went Green this time. Go figure.

Kind of amazing how the PANB didn't do that well in the south. They're basically the Fredericton exurbs + Miramichi party. I wonder if this is because much of the southwest is fairly religious, and not therefore not as prone to populism?