Is Pennsylvania drifting towards solid GOP?

[Lord Admirale]

Before anyone gets mad, let me explain this. I think Pennsylvania in 2016 will be like Virginia in 2008. Like Virginia, it will go solid GOP (instead of Dem) because of one region, Western Pennsylvania (instead of Northern Virginia).

Western Pennsylvania was strong Democratic territory for a very long time. Here are examples of this occurrence.

1932:



1948:


1952:


1956:


1968:


1972:
This was the first time in decades that Western Pennsylvania voted Republican due to Nixon's landslide and McGovern's unpopularity.


1976:
Flipped back (strongly) to Democrats


1980:
Reagan's first landslide, slightly weaker, but still Democrat.


1984:
Mondale outperforms Carter's failed reelection results


1988:


1992:


1996:


2000:
Weakness is beginning to show, but the southwestern counties still go Democrat


2004:
Democrats lose a few more counties, but still have some strength


Now, 2008 is where it gets interesting. Barack Obama carries PA by a wide margin, but loses every county except Allegheny and Erie in the western part of the state. Albeit, his losses are narrow.

2008:


Mitt Romney also carries the same counties McCain won, however by wider margins.
2012:


By now, Trump has taken Erie County by two points, however carries the southwestern counties (excluding Allegheny) by 60% or more. Pennsylvania goes Republican.
2016:


If Trump plays his cards right, and the Democrats continue to slip, Pennsylvania could be the Dems' version of Virginia.

Thoughts?