SC-1 special election - May 7th

[Benj]

With Berkley in, Sanford up 51.9-47.5

Only a small bit of Berkeley. Now up to 9% in Berkeley, 2% overall (including 9% of Berkeley and the one precinct in Colleton, nothing elsewhere), and Sanford up 55-44.

[Miles]

DKE's benchmark for ECB in Berkeley is 47/51. Only 10% there is in, but she needs to inch up a point or two there.

[Miles]

Vote dump from Charleston 54-46 ECB overall.

She's pulling 59% in Charleston with 3% of the county.

[Old Man Svensson]

ECB just took one hell of a lead thanks to Charleston. There may yet be hope.

[Kushahontas]

Dorchester beginning to report, her lead lessens. 56-43 in that county...

[JerryArkansas]

She's leading with 53% of the vote now.

[Benj]

Votes coming in a bit faster now. ECB leads the first batch from Dorchester County, but Sanford gains ground a bit as more of Berkeley comes in (both in Berkeley and overall). Still silence from Beaufort County, which is likely to be very important as neither campaign paid it much attention.

[Talleyrand]

A little bit of Dorchester County just came in- Colbert Busch leads there with 56.6%, which is above the benchmark set by DKE, but since we have no idea where in the area that's from, I don't think we can make too much out of it. Looks like she's underperforming what she needs to get in Berkeley, but outperforming in Charleston as well.

[Miles]

ECB up 56-43 in Dorchester with the first 1,500 or so votes reporting. She needs to break about even there to stay competitive.

She's slipping a bit in Berkeley with each update

[Talleyrand]

The votes from Charleston are just absentees, according to Dave Wasserman, so they may not be representative of the county as a whole.

[Miles]

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[RogueBeaver]

She just went up a point thanks to Charleston. Are these still absentees?

[Miles]

Up to 10% in Charleston and ECB is back up to 54-45 overall.

Maybe the absentees are done, but she's holding 59% there.

[JerryArkansas]

She is really preforming well in Charleston right now.

[Miles]

She is really preforming well in Charleston right now.

DKE's benchmark for her was 53/46 in Charleston. If she doesn't fall too far from where she is now, that could carry the race for her.

[Kushahontas]

most of Beaufort just reported, Sanford takes the lead

[JerryArkansas]

Huge vote dump from BEAUFORT, now sanford ahead by about 1%

[Morning in Atlas]

81% of Beaufort precints reporting. 14357 Sanford-12655 ECB. 50.4%-49.1% Sanford overall (28% rep), 52.9%-46.7% in Beaufort (81% rep)

[Miles]

Beaufort is new to Sanford, so if he's overperforms there, its bad.

[Kushahontas]

ECB should've had a bigger presence in Beaufort during the campaign...

[Talleyrand]

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Looks like the absentees are done, but he still doesn't see Colbert Busch gaining enough on Obama to win.

As for Beaufort County, with 81% in, Colbert Busch has less than 47% of the vote, meaning she's underperforming DKE's benchmark by 2%, and consistently across the district if Wasserman is to be believed.

[Miles]

As for Beaufort County, with 81% in, Colbert Busch has less than 47% of the vote, meaning she's underperforming DKE's benchmark by 2%, and consistently across the district if Wasserman is to be believed.

She's also about 3% under the benchmark in Berkeley but 6% over in Charleston.

[Miles]

Damn...down to 51% ECB in Charleston. 51-48 Sanford.

[Morning in Atlas]

And Sanford is gaining in Charleston. 51.1-48.4 ECB in Charleston Cty

[Talleyrand]

Damn...down to 51% ECB in Charleston. 51-48 Sanford.

With 20% more in, that means she's underperforming by 2% again, but Wasserman says he forgot to add some of the votes she got on the "Working Families" line, so she may be doing a little bit better.