Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) (user search)
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Author Topic: Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)  (Read 97045 times)
Oldiesfreak1854
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« on: March 01, 2016, 07:24:37 PM »

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2016, 07:28:06 PM »

I think that Trump might severely underperform tonight.

Yeah but only if you expected him to win 50% of the vote in every state.

I thought that TRUMP would win VT and VA in a landslide, but it's really close. I think he might underperform (but still win) in most states tonight.
No returns out of Vermont yet.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2016, 07:28:50 PM »

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.

Exit polls in which he's ahead two-to-one.

Exit polls in which Gore was winning in Florida, and raw vote tallies had Bush leading.  And exit polls in which Kerry won by a landslide in 2004.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2016, 07:32:25 PM »

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.

Exit polls in which he's ahead two-to-one.

Exit polls in which Gore was winning in Florida, and raw vote tallies had Bush leading.  And exit polls in which Kerry won by a landslide in 2004.

None of which involved someone leading by a nearly two-to-one margin and ending up losing.
Kerry was winning by 15-20 points in the exit polls from several close states.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2016, 07:34:35 PM »

DDHQ has Kasich winning Fairfax and Carson winning a county.
Where are they getting their returns?  Those are completely different from CNN's numbers.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2016, 07:35:40 PM »

This feels more and more like 2000.  It's just exit polls, not actual vote tallies.

Exit polls in which he's ahead two-to-one.

Exit polls in which Gore was winning in Florida, and raw vote tallies had Bush leading.  And exit polls in which Kerry won by a landslide in 2004.

None of which involved someone leading by a nearly two-to-one margin and ending up losing.
Kerry was winning by 15-20 points in the exit polls from several close states.

Oh for Christ's sake. The ratio is important, the state fundamentals are important, the previous polling in the state is important, the fact that polling technology has improved in the past eleven years is important.
How?  I wouldn't call online polling better or more accurate than traditional polling.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2016, 07:39:06 PM »

I didn't say he would.  For all I know, the Georgia call may be right.  But I think it's extremely premature to make a call simply based on exit polls, especially when they have differed significantly from actual outcomes in the past.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2016, 07:42:37 PM »

I didn't say he would.  For all I know, the Georgia call may be right.  But I think it's extremely premature to make a call simply based on exit polls, especially when they have differed significantly from actual outcomes in the past.



We are now getting results in from Georgia though and Trump has clearly won the state. He is leading in every county, often by large margins and is running at 50% of the vote.
Dude, 1% of the precincts in is not "clear" by any means.  I suspect Trump will take the state, but I still think it's too early to call it.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2016, 07:48:55 PM »

CNN is stuck at 1%.


Updated Vermont exit poll:

Kasich 31%
Trump 29.5%


HOW STUPID ARE THE PEOPLE OF VERMONT?
Not at all.  Very smart, if this is any indicator.

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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2016, 07:50:08 PM »

Guys, stop responding to Oldies. He says the same crap even if it's obvious someone's going to win by 50+ points.
Dude, a candidate can be winning 3 votes to 1 and that would be 75%.  Do you seriously think a race can be called simply by those numbers?
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2016, 07:52:01 PM »

You sure it's not 3 percent?  CNN is still stuck in single digits.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2016, 07:54:03 PM »

Now Virginia is coming in fast on CNN.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2016, 07:55:13 PM »

Guys, stop responding to Oldies. He says the same crap even if it's obvious someone's going to win by 50+ points.
Dude, a candidate can be winning 3 votes to 1 and that would be 75%.  Do you seriously think a race can be called simply by those numbers?

You always say the same thing and you're always wrong.
Just wait.  One of these days, the networks will get burned just like they did in 2000.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2016, 07:56:02 PM »

You're so stupid.  It's clear that Trump will win in Vermont. Tongue
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2016, 08:01:59 PM »

I'm telling you, they're gonna get burned one of these days.  Nobody is in a position to call Massachusetts yet.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2016, 08:04:31 PM »

Not so fast, it's almost entirely based on exit polls in MA, AL, and TN.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2016, 08:09:00 PM »

Anyone think Trump is getting legitimately hurt by his David Duke flap Sunday?
If he hasn't been hurt by his numerous missteps yet, then I doubt it.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2016, 08:15:50 PM »

Isn't it about time to call VA? Trump's lead appears to be pretty steady at 6-7 points.

NOVA has barely reported.
You're mad.  It's clear Trump will win in VA.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2016, 08:18:59 PM »

Why is Texas releasing their results before all of their polls close?
Because most of the state is on Central Time and closes an hour earlier.  The early numbers are from there.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2016, 08:20:12 PM »

HA!  Trump only barely leads in MA, and they've already called it.  This exactly proves my point.

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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #20 on: March 01, 2016, 08:22:31 PM »

I think Rubio may win in VA.  Most of the outstanding vote is in the suburbs.

I hope Kasich is happy with all his second-place finishes in the Northeast.
It's still very early, and Vermont hasn't even been called yet.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #21 on: March 01, 2016, 08:29:34 PM »

Trump has a seven point lead in VA with 83% in. It's over.  Rubio isn't going to carry a single primary today.
No, it's not over.  Most of NOVA has yet to report.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #22 on: March 01, 2016, 08:30:45 PM »

Stop saying Virginia is over.  Less than 20% of Prince William and Fairfax Counties have reported.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #23 on: March 01, 2016, 08:33:20 PM »

Trump has a seven point lead in VA with 83% in. It's over.  Rubio isn't going to carry a single primary today.
No, it's not over.  Most of NOVA has yet to report.

You do realize that it's simple math...how many votes do you think are outstanding? Do you think Rubio is going to win 110% of them?
No, but there is a LOT of vote there, and Rubio will probably win it overwhelmingly.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #24 on: March 01, 2016, 08:38:05 PM »

They haven't put it up yet.
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