IA-Selzer: Warren 22, Biden 20, Sanders 11, Buttigieg 9, Harris 6

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Liz!!! While she'll want to beat Biden by more than 2 in Iowa ideally, she definitely has the momentum right now. Pretty weak for Sanders and Buttigieg, and especially Harris.

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Queen Liz is inevitable

inevitable she loses to trump yes

Please continue believing this, and tell all your friends that she can't win as well.

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Previous elections for another office are often not a good way to predict how well a candidate will do for a higher office. Plenty of candidates who win Senate races by impressive margins prove to be horrible presidential candidates, House members who win competitive districts by huge margins often crash and burn in Senate races, etc. Warren's non-competitive Senate race in 2018 tells us next to nothing about how she will do nationally in a very different kind of race (and as a different kind of candidate.)

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Previous elections for another office are often not a good way to predict how well a candidate will do for a higher office. Plenty of candidates who win Senate races by impressive margins prove to be horrible presidential candidates, House members who win competitive districts by huge margins often crash and burn in Senate races, etc. Warren's non-competitive Senate race in 2018 tells us next to nothing about how she will do nationally in a very different kind of race (and as a different kind of candidate.)

Well, obviously you seem very supportive of Warren, so it would be very difficult for me to make you listen my arguments. But let’s be clear, when you are a democratic incumbent senator and that you underperform Clinton by 5 despite a D wave, it’s not a good point in your favour.

And what you say is not really true.
Both Bush and Obama had an impressive electoral record before being elected president (Bush landslide win in 1998, Obama landslide win in 2004)

Since Warren is obviously one of your least favorites, you're going to make a lot out of data points suggesting she's a bad candidate. Yes, Bush and Obama won by impressive margins, but Clinton's margin in 2006 was also impressive. And Rubio, Kasich, and Walker, all of whom did very well in their elections prior to 2016, ran worse campaigns than Cruz, who only ran even with Romney in 2012. People hyped up Klobuchar as a great candidate based on her margin in Minnesota, but she's been shown to be a pretty weak presidential candidate. People who dislike Warren would find another reason to argue that she's "unelectable" even if she had won by 34 instead of "only" 24.