Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[morgieb]

People trying to compare this with Kentucky should have a look at Hood in Mississippi. He actually overperformed the one poll of that race (admittedly was on a lower ticket), and I think Louisiana is closer to Mississippi than Kentucky demographically.

[morgieb]

This thing is in two days. Final thoughts?

Vitter creams Edwards by 5 to 8 points.

So what's the "Texas Democrat" part of your username?  It can't possibly mean you identify as a socially conservative Southern Democrat because you'd probably, you know, be supporting the socially conservative Democrat in the race...

Talleyrand be trollin'.

Anyway I'm a bit nervous here now, but more because I worry Vitter's dog-whistling and a move towards national security is working rather than #analysis that Louisiana is deep red and Dems can't win those sort of states. Will still say Edwards wins....but I'm less confident now than I was a week ago.

[morgieb]

Yeah, for whatever reason I feel really pessimistic here now too. JMC having Edwards under 50% didn't help.....

If Edwards loses, RIP polling industry? They've had an awful lot of misses recently.....

[morgieb]

Edwards leading 54-46 with 68% in. Nungesser up 58-42, and AP called AG for Landry with him leading 57-43.

...but there's 75% in (55-45 JBE)

Looking at what's left I reckon Edwards might actually do better than 55/45.