2008: Sarah Palin vs. Barack Obama

[justW353]

John McCain dies of a stroke a week after the convention.  The GOP rushes to replace him, and after some deliberation decides to let Palin have the nomination (don't ask me why).  She selects...well you pick her VP.

Everything else remains the same.

Discuss, with maps.

[hawkeye59]

Republican Disaster

[Bo]

Republican Disaster

Give Palin SC and I would agree with this map.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

[HappyWarrior]

How exactly does she do better than McCain?

[justW353]

Republican Disaster

My exact map, right down to the percents.  It's a 418 to 120 win I believe.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

How exactly does she do better than McCain?

Sympathy votes for McCain, plus she does a better job rallying the base to GOTV.

[King]

Sounds crazy, but I think Texas would be more in play than South Carolina with Palin 08.  

[Landslide Lyndon]

How exactly does she do better than McCain?

Sympathy votes for McCain, plus she does a better job rallying the base to GOTV.

I'm fairly sure that after the first few Katie-Couric-like interviews the sympathy votes would disappear.

And she did a pretty good at rallying the base as a Vice-Presidential candidate. Being on the top of the ticket would add nothing while at the same time the prospect of President Palin would terrify even more the independents and the suburbanites.

Not to mention that she couldn't have deflected questions about her experience anymore by merely saying that she wasn't running for the top job.

[Derek]

Excuse me, but in case you didn't know, if a candidate is no longer able to run in an election, then they are replaced by the candidate who finished second in the primary election earlier that year. In your case, which I think all the smoking Obama has done, he'd be the first to croak, Mike Huckabee would likely be the nominee and my map will follow.

[Derek]

http://[img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;10;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;5&CO=2;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;6&IN=2;11;5&IA=2;7;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=2;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;7&VT=1;3;6&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;6

Here is Palin vs. Obama. Palin is the true Washington outsider, but it is hard to predict since Palin was so new. At least she had experience governing a state.

[sentinel]

http://[img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;10;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;5&CO=2;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;6&IN=2;11;5&IA=2;7;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=2;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;7&VT=1;3;6&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;6

Here is Palin vs. Obama. Palin is the true Washington outsider, but it is hard to predict since Palin was so new. At least she had experience governing a state.

Good joke. Obama landslide. This situation was the Republicans worse fears. The Republican base comes out to vote for Palin, but the moderates stampede to Obama like a flock of seagulls attacking a piece of bread at the beach.

[justW353]

http://[img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;10;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;5&CO=2;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;6&IN=2;11;5&IA=2;7;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;9;6&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=2;6;6&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=2;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=2;15;5&ND=2;3;5&OH=2;20;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;34;6&UT=2;5;7&VT=1;3;6&VA=2;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;6

Here is Palin vs. Obama. Palin is the true Washington outsider, but it is hard to predict since Palin was so new. At least she had experience governing a state.

Good joke. Obama landslide. This situation was the Republicans worse fears. The Republican base comes out to vote for Palin, but the moderates stampede to Obama like a flock of seagulls attacking a piece of bread at the beach.

This guy Derek is a bit on the slow side...check out his other predictions.